RE: STEEM Price Analysis – May 30, 2017

You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

STEEM Price Analysis – May 30, 2017

in steem •  8 years ago 

It's a post-hoc fallacy, a meme, invented by gamblers/traders to make them thing they can tell the future. No scientific basis, no data, nada other than confirmation biases (noting the hits, ignoring the misses). A monkey can beat the average trader in the long run just be hodling.

More here
Why Technical Analysis In Trading is 100 Bullshit

Just because you are doing the same parroting every day, doesn't make it right. It is the same poem more or less. I explained you perfectly how someone can draw the lines, especially in the crypto world where a handful control almost everything.

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

As I was saying...

lol, The denial is strong with you

here is another one. You know. More "reputable"

Any Monkey Can Beat The Market which by simple inductive reasoning renders the conclusion: Technical Analysis is bullshit.

Whether one claims to understand "what it is" remains irrelevant. The "winning stories" or predictions or foresights are simple post hoc fallacies

Yet another article in case you are still in denial.
https://www.fscomeau.com/why-technical-analysis-is-bullshit/

Now, you can keep denying it or you can debate and demonstrate how what you write everyday isn't actually snake oil. I know there is massive circle-jerk due to the fact that most crypto guys are traders but still, safe spaces don't make something true.

It's not about predictions - it's about probabilities. You'd do well to understand that.

Again. No basis. None. Zero. Nada.
I can draw a chart with the probability of me farting after eating beans. That wouldn't make the chart correct or the probabilities relevant because eventually, I will fart.

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

Well this was a joy to read. If all people trading are using these crystal balls to decide when to buy or sell, I should get one also! Or buy a monkey. Tough decision.

But in these emerging markets holding for few years will be the best option for majority.

no one can beat the market. paying attention to those who do is the same as trying to get advice from people who won the lottery.

It's true that no one can be right 100% of the time. That is why people use stop loss so it doesn't matter if you are right or wrong. Even if you're right only 30-40% of the time, you will profit if you use stop loss the right way as you cut the losses fast and let winners ride. But that is just my opinion and it was interesting to hear yours.

what i meant is that your short term predictions, long term, will be less profitable than just holding.

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

Technical analysis, especially price action based stuff like this isn't a crystal ball.

It just lays out the context of the market, is it trending, ranging or reversing?

Then decides places to get in and out based on probabilities and the potential for an edge.

Alot of TA is just about understanding the context and psychology of the participants. Which loosely follow patterns.

Technical analysis, especially price action based stuff like this isn't a crystal ball.

evidence?

Alot of TA is just about understanding the context and psychology of the participants. Which loosely follow patterns.

wouldn't that be counter-intuitive in a world where 3 companies in China control the prices of BTC? They can Picasso those "lines" and fool the day-to-day gamblers. ...and they do.

same applies for the FIAT world. Read "Flash Boys" and you will understand.

I've read flash boys and day traded professionally for the last 6 years, maybe you'd understand if you actually made a living from trading.

There are so many basic TA strategies that have an edge in the markets it's ridiculous. Not that I'd ever use anyone elses strategies, but Linda Raschke for example, throughout her career offered up dozens of TA strategies that did well for years after she released them. Check out the turtle traders.

Price analysis takes advantage of the fact that markets have inertia. When they trend they usually keep trending, when they range they usually keep ranging. That's all there is to it from a method perspective.

Then you just control your risk over a series of trades to take advantage. Something as simple as looking at price bounce between 5 and 10 and buying 5s while selling 10s will make you money. Then cutting it once it breaks. That's price action analysis.

I am not doubting its existence. I am doubting its efficiency.