Predicting the prices of cryptocurrency is likely to make a fool out of most would-be Rasputins. Nevertheless, a great many of us try to do it each day, and even put a large portion of our "wealth", such as it calls itself in our bank accounts, behind those same guesses.
Nevertheless, predictions of what may occur remain popular so I'll throw a few charts out there I made in MS-Paint and then tell you I basically don't have a clue which one is right.
Exhibit A: Bullish.
This is a shallow analysis based mostly on volume. The colors match up with the different areas of the graph I'm drawing comparisons between. Steem has pumped up as high as $3.61 during the writing of this post, and we still haven't seen volume anywhere near the peak of this June/July. A similar follow-through in the buying volume to previous highs from earlier this year would see us at $7+ for Steem.
Exhibit B: The Possible "Double-Top"
Double-tops are an actual thing in technical analysis, but in my observation, most cryptocurrencies ignore them and blow right past to new highs far beyond. It won't surprise me if Steem does just that. In my opinion, Steems looks strong on the charts and if it can blow past this area there's no resistance until who-knows-when. (Edit: Steem is already testing this hypothesis now, having spiked over $3.60.)
Either way, I have no idea what this means for the price of the Steem Backed Dollar, and that could admittedly be an enormous variable. Naturally, if the mystery buyer/hodler of SBD decides to dump, this could cause very unpredictable results for the Steem price - and probably to the downside.
This is a safe area to take some profits if you are a trader, but there's a good chance we could be looking at $3 as "cheap" for Steem in the near future. Steem has been aggressively bought on every dip, which is a new development as this has not been the case over the last several months. Large sell orders from several whales who have been powering down have prevented the price from increasing too much. For now, this appears to no longer be the case.
However, don't get caught holding more SBD than you need to - at $14, there may be much more downside than upside.
If you have any additions or errata for this post, please let me know! I will see that they are voted to the top of the comments, and will make the appropriate edits (if possible).
We also have a Radio Station! (click me)
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Sources: Bittrex
Copyright: CoinMarketCap
I just love the high quality image.
Double dog dare ya to sell all your Steem!
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It's easy to reject this temptation "thanks" to the 13-week power down!
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Past self, present-self is very glad you did not succumb to Netuoso's peer pressure.
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Yes, technical analysis needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
At the same time though, it tends to be somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, when a large part of the traders/investors apply the exact same techniques to come to the exact same conclusion, leading to the exact same trading moves... thereby causing exactly that which was predicted.
Wether or not that makes TA correct a priori, or post-priori, I'm not entirely sure..
Still, there's something to be said about knowing what a certain percentage of traders will likely be doing
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This is very true. It's tough to tell whether or not Haejin is right - price comes first, news and events later are found to justify it in the collective market psychology.
This is part of why I'm trying to avoid trading decisions based on fundamentals. They just don't seem to work in this market, on the short term. This thing is a rollercoaster.
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I actually pretty much only trade on fundamentals. I don't dare rely on TA. TA may say that some crap project will do amazing... and they may be right, but I'm still not touching it with a ten foot pole. I'd rather have both fundamentals and TA on my side, ideally, but fundamentals alone works too. It helps me HODL through those dark, dark times.
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"I actually pretty much only trade on fundamentals. "
This hasn't been serving me so well this year. BTC fundamentals have been on a downward trend since SegWit.
I agree that it's nice to have FA and TA line-up.
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I know what you mean, but I think in the long run fundamentals always offers more reliability as an investment than trying to stay ahead of the herd and trading back and forth. Trading is risky, but HODL pretty much always works in this market. Except when there's no fundamentals warranting the HODL.
I just buy a 'good one' and hodl = profit, easiest money ever made. When I was chasing the spikes and trying to predict the market, it gave me a ton more stress and uncertainty because I didn't truly believe in the project's fundamentals. I felt I needed to stay on alert constantly in case the price would do something weird.
But when I'm holding something that's got good fundamentals, it's easy getting through the dips, and almost tempting to buy some more.
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"I think in the long run fundamentals"
In the long run, we're all dead.
US $ hasn't had fundamentals for at least 20 years, open printing via corruption for 11 years...it's been a terrible short so far.
Of course, we're really talking about 3 different things here: Trading, Investing, and Saving. All distinctly different.
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Lexi... I worked on this chart analysis for you.. I think this is going to help make everything clearer too...
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Where's the exact point of maximal Lambo (ie when should I buy one?)
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I guess it is at least $7.50, in retrospect.
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lololololol
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Yassss!
@Lexiconical is back with the whirlwind of thought-provoking analysis!
Woop-woop!
I thought we'd lost you forever there buddy :3
So what you're saying is if you've got some SBDs, smoke em' while you can and enjoy a merry christmas lol? :3
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I definitely needed a brief break to wrap up some projects. It's also certainly nice to see a bump in post rewards (and my vote power)!
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Halelujah!
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You've excelled yourself here with these drawings @lexiconical 😁
The first chart looks absolutely more feasible to me. Either way, I'll not be taking any Steem Power profits this cycle - SBDS should have covered many christmas's already.
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You, sir, clearly have a cultured eye for the arts.
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You are the first, and likely the last person to ever say that to me!
Have a good Christmas if I don't 'see' you before.
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Pardon me gentlemen, is there a landing space anywhere? My roflcopter is going $w00sh-$w00sh-$w00sh-$w00sh-$w00sh
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Depending on the overall Crypto market Steem is looking to move up regardless of the charts. The beauty of Crypto at the moment is that it is unpredictable. The only thing you can predict is that decent projects will continue to rise. By how much? No way to tell.
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It would appear you are absolutely correct. As Haejin likes to call it, the "alt-coin popcorn symphony" seems to have begun!
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Definitely not selling - continuing to convert SBD to SP, and powering up with additional investment
I agree that we will look at $3 as cheap in future - even if it was below $1 only a couple of weeks ago...
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Such is the nature of this wild market.
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pretty much a guaranteed double lambo
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Great compliment to a crypto-moped.
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Lol!
Yes, I’m mindful that this generous mystery person might not be into the ‘season’ and Grinch us with a lb of coal in our stockings’ without warning…lol..
Yes…so glad to hear you say this…
Love the MS-Paint ;+)!
Peace.
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"Love the MS-Paint ;+)!"
The thinking man's easel.
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:+)!
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What goes up has to go down, what goes down has to go up. Don't think it's going to go to $7 directly without correcting first at maybe less than $2, but I'm very optimistic.
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Your optimism is well-founded so far! We appear to be setting up for another run up to almost $15!
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Lmfao, solid analysis with even more solid drawings to accompany it.
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I definitely majored in art.
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Ha those graphs are aweseome. Everyone has an opinion on where this will go but until its your money its best to stick to your own research,charts and excel tom foolery . Sweet post this has inspired me to complete my Tenex,BTC, literal basket of goods post....
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Good to see you, Stick! Apologies for the late reply.
Steem has blown right through this top, as we predicted, and is looking primed for another push to new highs IMO. $10 will be seen before too long.
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No worries cheers for comment looking forward to the $10
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thats great for us
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It would appear this has panned out well for all of us.
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May the Crypto Gods hear you!
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In retrospect, it would appear they have taken the call!
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It's pretty great analysis @lexiconical
You have explained it very well.either it's a bullish or a double top, it's is going to be great for the community.
Thanks for sharing the analysis\prediction
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How would a double top be good for the community, hypothetically speaking?
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? I think i miss understood the chart. Sorry if i spammed your comment section.i have no clue now that why i have written these lines. May be miss understanding.
Thanks for stopping me here.
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I believe so too.
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the price can change drastically despite any analysis, it's a market and it's possible on it as a sharp unexpected drop, as well as sharp ups ... thanks for the informative article
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Anyone will find it difficult to argue with this assessment.
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I'm just glad steem is rising :) Fingers crossed for the trend to continue!
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Your fingers appear to have done the trick.
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Thank you @lexiconical for promoting this post together with https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/introducing-steem-budget-proposals
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. that's good on us. Thank you for your posting
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Low effort, interchangeable comments such as this one are liable to get your account flagged.
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very good information. very useful for new like me.
very good post, I really like.
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You should attempt to put more effort into comments in a way that makes them not generic. You could attach this to any post, and in fact, most likely did. This may get you flagged.
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This post has received a 18.34 % upvote from
thanks to: @lexiconical.
For more information, click here!!!!
Send minimum 0.050 SBD to bid for votes.
The Minnowhelper team is still looking for investors (Minimum 10 SP), if you are interested in this, read the conditions of how to invest click here!!!
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I hope $3 is considered cheap some time next year :)
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We didn't even have to wait that long. Good call. Prescient.
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Post is awesome
Hopefully the stealth will progress
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I can only assume this is part-translator, part-cut and paste. I am unimpressed.
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This post has received gratitude of 4.02 % from @appreciator thanks to: @lexiconical.
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You got a 21.67% upvote from @allaz courtesy of @lexiconical!
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You got a 9.14% upvote from @postpromoter courtesy of @lexiconical!
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Very beautiful,post more like this @crazy3 vote up and follow me maybe
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This post has received a 10.80 % upvote, thanks to: @lexiconical.
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good luck kawan.saya post anda.semoga steemit work will progress in the future
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Comments like this (make little to no sense whatsoever) may result in your account getting nuked by flags.
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This post has received a 11.02 % upvote from @aksdwi thanks to: @lexiconical.
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13.86% @pushup from @lexiconical
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This post has received a 0.54 % upvote from @buildawhale thanks to: @lexiconical. Send at least 1 SBD to @buildawhale with a post link in the memo field for a portion of the next vote.
To support our daily curation initiative, please vote on my owner, @themarkymark, as a Steem Witness
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You got a 2.38% upvote from @upme requested by: @lexiconical.
Send at least 1.5 SBD to @upme with a post link in the memo field to receive upvote next round.
To support our activity, please vote for my master @suggeelson, as a STEEM Witness
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