Sticking Out My Neck, Revisited: STEEM In Clear Uptrend

Four days ago (was it only four days ago??) I posted Sticking Out My Neck: STEEM Has Bottomed. This screenshot of STEEM's four-day chart on the Poloniex market shows what happened subsequently:

The price at the left is more-or-less the time at which I made my turnaround call. Call it a range of 20,000 to 22,000 satoshis.

Subsequently, as you can see, STEEM's shot up! Better yet, chart-wise, there are several volume spikes. Most, but not all, coincide with jumps up. That's a good sign, as it correlates with increased demand. Only one spike over the last four days coincides with a dump, although a second dump is in play as I write this.

STEEM did have a hard time getting above 30,000: understandably so. Even numbers, because they're easy numbers, tend to attract limit orders. It's no surprise why there'd be resistance at 30,000.

But STEEM did bust through: as I write, the dumping is pushing it down to the 30,000 level. If you bought when I stuck my neck out - I did buy some, as I disclosed in my earlier post - you have reason to be happy. Lawd knows I am. ;)

Improving Fundamentals?

As I said earlier, the keyword steemit is showing a definite uptick in Google Trends The nearer-terms chart shows flatlining:

Not all that encouraging, true, but not all that discouraging either.

Encouragingly - and I owe these data to @ontofractal ; they're in Advanced Steem Metrics Report for 4th December 2016 - is the fact that most of these Key Metrics

are trending upwards. Compare the numbers in the 7-day Average column - second from the left - to the 30-day average - just to the right of the 7-day -and you'll see healthy growth which shows users becoming more active than they were. That's good, because activity has some correlation with both spreading the word about Steemit and buying STEEM to use.

The Longer-Term View

Thanks to the recent run-up, STEEM's turnaround is now visible on Coinmarketcap's all-time chart!

What used to be a depressingly deep downslide has turned into a visible bowl pattern. That's the good kind of turnaround: real bull trends start slowly. It takes time for skeptical, perhaps disgusted, punters to see that an uptrend is for real.

Hard-Fork Fake-Out?

Undoubtedly, the hard fork has ginned up some interest in STEEM and has accounted for some of the buying pressure. It got a lot of publicity in the altcoin press, and a new fork is always grist for new hopes. In addition, both Polo's and Trex's exchange wallets were seized up for a time; they getting stuck added to the pressure.

So, it is possible that the current uptrend is yet another bull trap: a fake-out. But I don't believe it is, because of the improving Steemit metrics screenshot above. The hard fork looks more like a pump-primer than a fake-outer; STEEM has spent a lot of time building a flatlining base that suggests disgusted sellers have diminished. Because Steemers have taken a big hand in the #Pizzagate investigation, Steemit's gotten a bit of press from non-cryptocurrency new media. Including at Gab.ai, where Gabbers like me have been playing drop-a-link with Steemit posts. :)

For these reasons I'm sticking to my original bull call. If STEEM does descend after the hard-fork excitement dwindles, it's my opinion that it'll create a buying opportunity.

"But What To Do?" A Simple Trading Tactic

If you're already bullish, and are like me, a solid uptrend hands you a real dilemma. It tugs ya in two different directions:

1. "Oh, crap! I gotta jump on board or I'll miss the train!" (FOMO)
2. "Oh hell, this thing's gone up way too fast. I'll wait for the pullback instead of getting egg on my face." (Skepticism)

It's a tough dilemma because no-one knows how far an uptrend can go. I resolved it somewhat by buying ~2,500 more STEEM at about noon ET yesterday, which I tried to withdraw after buying it. (That's how I know about Polo's stuck wallet, which a trollbox mod assured me is fixed now.)

In order to get around, here's a useful action plan if you see the above call as actionable:

• Settle on an amount of STEEM you want to buy. For example, 1000 STEEM.
• Divide that number by four. In this example, 1000/4 = 250.
• Buy the first quarter (in this example, 250) today.
• Buy each of the three remaining quarters over the next three days.

This way, you'll partially benefit from today's price if STEEM keeps barreling up - and you'll partially benefit from near-future prices if a post-hard-fork hangover pullback settles in. Essentially, this plan is a quick-and-dirty dollar-cost-averaging compromise. Like all compromises, it will not get you the best outcome - but it will get you something better than the worst.

[EDIT: For the real dollar-cost averaging experience, choose an amount of Bitcoin and divvy it up into four. Real-world example: I'm about to scrape up 0.6 BTC and then buy 0.15 BTC's worth of STEEM over the next four days.]

Conclusion And Disclaimer

In my opinion, STEEM has finally shaken off this summer and fall's faith-testing downturn. Its long-term chart shows a gently curving bowl that's consistent with a slow-starting turn of the tide. Interest and use metrics jibe with this turnaround. Although the recent jump could have been caused by publicity and excitement over the hard fork, I'm of the view that it's acting like a pump-primer.

Please keep in mind that I'm no kind of a professional; as such, I'm expressing my own opinion. Also please keep in mind that I have a large haunch of STEEM already, so it's in my financial interest to be bullish. With these in mind, please use your own judgment when deciding whether to buy STEEM or to sell any STEEM you have.

---

Thanks for reading, and Steem On!

(Image from here.)

All proceeds from upvotes on this post are going to more Steem Power.