I made a prediction last month on the price of STEEM and EOS as at the 15th Sept. For some reason I thought I had the prediction to the end of the month. I was wrong, hence my delay on the result of that prediction.
Looking into my crystal ball at the time of the last post, my predictions were
closing price of STEEM on the 15th Sept to be $2.10. If there is a break out and rally it could go up to $4.18, but on the down side it could also hit $1.06 “
I predict that the price of EOS at the 15th Sept will be $1.02. If it goes high it could reach $1.23 and if it really drops it will go down to $0.88”
So how did I do?
As per coinmarketcap, the closing price of STEEM on the 15th was $1.14 and the closing price of EOS was $0.664. The price of STEEM was still within my outer range but EOS was not.
What went wrong with the prediction?
The prices of markets has many factors and it is hard to predict for things like tax changes or government regulations. Such as the ICO ban in China which happened during this period.
Predictions to the 15th October
Using Power BI I have connected to coinmarketcap and collected the historic prices of STEEM and EOS. Then using an available Rscript I have ran the following forecasts. The Rscript is my crystal ball and it does all the forecasting and creates the visualizations below.
At an 85% confidence level on the overall range, the price of STEEM at the 15 Oct will be $1.68. The moon landing will be $4.85 and the crash could bring $0.44
Has EOS found its bottom? We are looking at a price of $.79 on the 15th, but if it has not found its bottom, it could still drop to $.29. If it pumps then we could be looking at $1.83.
I have also began to look at Elliott’s Wave in terms of an analysis for crypto currency trading’s. You can see my post here on Elliotts wave and STEEM prices
https://steemit.com/bisteemit/@paulag/elliotts-wave-excel-model-will-steem-drop-to-usd0-81
I will be doing an update to the Elliotts Wave post on the 10th of October when all the dates have passed.
**This is by no means trading advice. I am not a financial adviser and I know nothing about trading crypto currencies**
I am part of a Steemit Business Intelligence community. We all post under the tag #BIsteemit. If you have an analysis you would like carried out on Steemit data, please do contact me or any of the #bisteemit team and we will do our best to help you...
Don't talk about EOS reaching 0,29€. Last time the 0,88€ prediction made me also unconfortable :)
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it would be a buy more time :-)
I think you will have to think long term....
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OK I would buy more but would have lots of regrets of the ones bought too early :)
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How early would you say it's too early? EOS ico only started Jul 1st... It's supposed to span 350 days, I wonder where the price would be at the end of the ICO and and then again when more systems start to adopt it. Like many ICOs it's bound to drop; even those with a hype... but those that are meant to leave a lasting imprint on the system do bounce. I think EOS is one of those. Just wait for that bounce before you start regretting, think long term. c:
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Im still a firm believer in the project but I could have had the double amount of tokens when I would have waited a bit more.
Thats the hurting part :)
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Then, don't worry too much about it. You're still gonna be in the positive and that's what matters the most.
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very true
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I missed out on adding during the last dip, so I'm kinda hoping for another one.
Steem to $4 would be amazing stuff.
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steem at $4 would rock but I personal think 1.6 is still over estimating
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I to think we will range $1 to $1.5 for a little while - perhaps Steemfest will help, otherwise next year when the first SMT news lands :)
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I too think we might be a little more $1.10 to 1.60 for a while
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Yeah maybe!
I'd like to see it holding steady for a while longer before going on another run up to $2.
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i agree with you. my favorite long term coin right now is steem. At a dollar its such a great deal.
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Any idea how why steem is down 5% today while smd (steem dollars) is up about the same?
Is this related to the SMT?
ty
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I hope you will be right this time, especially the concept of SMTs may help you.
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I dont think SMT really has the power to bring steem to $4 @tumutanzi, however it did lift the price...lets see what happens next
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Do not expect any gain for a month or so. Altcoins will suffer for a while at least.
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@originalworks
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The problem with predicting alt coins is they are affected by BTC as well so even if an alt is doing well, but BTC has a bad day or FUD then the gains for the alt can be wiped out.
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some are saying this bear market will continue. if it does EOS will drop some more. I am sorry for some guys who bought in at FOMO of EOS
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FOMO is dangerous, but I wouldn't be too sorry for them since the whitepaper and the outlook for the HODL EOS community is long-term based and the proposals seem quite promising.
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Great work Paula, I've given you a follow and look forward to some more BI insights.
My EOS technical analysis backs up your prediction of an EOS rally.
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