A couple of years ago, @fyrstikken did a post estimating how much Steem there’d be in the future based on the idea that the Steem inflation rate decreases by 0.5% per year. More recently, he recrunched the numbers based on a decrease of 0.42% per year which matches the calculation I did yesterday.
I’m going to assume that the yearly numbers shown are for some point early in each year. He shows 324,458,952 for the year 2019 and as of when I’m composing this post on March 30, 2019 we are currently at 326,316,855.
791,497,645 Steem by the year 2045, with a 0.95% annual inflation after that suggests that the 1,000,000,000th Steem would be created at some point in late 2069 or early 2070.
So 50 years to triple from where we are now. But, yeah, maybe that’s a crazy-long timeframe to think about.
Instead, consider that we’ve got about a dozen years until the supply of Steem doubles from where it is now. Unless you think that (A) the Steem Blockchain will crash and burn or (B) the number of Steem accounts will only double over the next 12 years, you might want to consider doing your best to acquire Steem now when it’s relatively easy to come by rather than later when competition for it may be much stronger than it is now.
Disclaimer: This should not be construed as financial advice. I am not a registered financial advisor; I don’t even play one on TV. Do your own due diligence. Batteries not included. Objects may be larger than they appear in mirror. Some assembly required. Do not taunt Happy Fun Ball.
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I think Steem will be here for a long time to come. :) I also think when the crypto markets get hot again we will see a return of many of our former users and many more joining us!
It will never be easier to earn Steem than it is right now.
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!sneeze
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You have been infected by the King of Disease!
Will you quarantine yourself?
Or will you spread the plague?
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It's just the sniffles. I'm fine... No need to quarantine.
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I like where your head it at. Doing the calculations and making sense of the inflation.
There is another variable you should think about. The SBD conversion is not taken into consideration. Over the last few months, the SBD conversions have created inflation over-and-beyond the normal STEEM creation rate. This now creates a new STEEM supply that inflation grows from.
Lets assume our imaginary model has 1,000 STEEM (quantity in existence) in which inflation is at 8.51% currently and decaying over time. Let's magically sprinkle 50 STEEM into the pool of STEEM supply created from SBD conversions. Now that new 50 STEEM will forever influence the future inflation because we are starting from 1,050 STEEM instead of 1,000 STEEM.
Here is the thing, even though over the last few months, there has been many millions of STEEM created due to SBD conversions, the amount of SBD conversions have seemingly stopped. As long as the price of STEEM and SBD climbs, people will HODL or Trade instead of "Converting". This may last for a while, but can conceivably happen again. If prices of STEEM and SBD remain high forever, then theoretically, your approach to calculate the billion STEEM supply will hold true because SBD conversions will not come back.
The real game changer is what you mentioned about growth and the future dwindling STEEM supply due to new users needing STEEM. That can easily trump any tiny amount of inflation. If we would double the amount of STEEM users/investors, then the liquid supply of STEEM can run very low driving price way up!
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Yeah, I didn’t factor in SBD conversion complications . Simply because it’s impossible to predict when or even if it might happen.
It’s straightforward math until we introduce a then a miracle occurs factor. 😂
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!sneeze
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The inflation was one of those things that really scared me when first joining Steemit learning how everything works nearly 2 years back. When looking at the actual numbers, the reward pool is fairly reasonable though.
In a couple of years from now, many will likely look back at this period and how easy it actually was to build something up. I remember when Steem was around 1$-3$ thinking how lucky everyone here was during the days the price was at ~0.1$ at a much higher inflation rate.
Thanks for making the calculations providing the numbers
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It is a good time to acquire some while the price remain low.
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!sneeze
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You have been infected by the King of Disease!
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Thank you so much for being an awesome Partiko user! We have just given you a free upvote!
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The only real wildcard is how SBD will grow along side the supply of Steem and the implications it will have to Steem supply. It has great utility but I wonder the overhang it could create if the SBD inflation gets out of hand?
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Hi @preparedwombat!
Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 4.733 which ranks you at #1533 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has not changed in the last three days.
In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 181 contributions, your post is ranked at #28.
Evaluation of your UA score:
Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server
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Remember how few steem we got when the price was 5usd?
I think the math caps it there in the long run.
It may go higher in pumps but that is my price to fluctuate around.
Buy when its lower and sell when it is higher.
I could be wrong.
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