STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken...Report through 2/28/2018

in steem •  7 years ago  (edited)

I last reported the numbers in a post that covered through February 15, 2018.

https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/steem-whales-are-losing-their-power-the-system-is-not-broken-report-through-2-15-18

Special thanks tho @arcange who runs these numbers everyday.

Now that we are in a new month, time to post the numbers again.

Here is the breakdown through February 15th:

2/15/2018

The total MVests here is 377,797.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 62.73%
Orcas 17.86%
Dolphins 10.85%
Minnows 5.44%
Red Fish 1.32%
Inactive 1.78%

3/1/2018

The total MVests here is 379,772.

Whales 62.55%
Orcas 17.68%
Dolphins 11.02%
Minnows 5.58%
Red Fish 1.36%
Inactive 1.81%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -.24%
Orcas -1.01%
Dolphins +1.57%
Minnows +2.57%
Red Fish +3.03%
Inactive +1.69%

2/15/2018

3/1/2018

So what does this all tell us.

To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!

The rich are not getting richer. In fact, more of the pie is going to the smaller accounts.

On February 15th, the Whales and Orcas had 304,488 MVests (80.60% of the total); on March 1, 2018, 304,679 MVests (80.23% of the total)...a decrease of .45%.

The final thing that I wanted to mention is this number: 9020

That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.

My friends, that is called being an early adopter....

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Thank you. It is helpful to have the breakdown presented like this. And verrry interesting.

As we get more members and the percentage increases against the whales then more of the reward pool will have to move away from them. If you have a million small users competing with 20 big ones for the same pool then the million will be taking a large share.
The people who are here now have a huge advantage against those who join in a years time as the reward pool will have a lot of people claiming from it. So now is the best time to build up your account unless you are willing to buy the SP. Most of the people who are dolphins are there because they got in at the right time. Like us here now.

You nailed it.

Most of the reward pool goes to authors. That is what people miss. The Whales simply cannot write enough articles each day to overwhelm the number of articles that will be posted by, let's say, a million Red Fish. Even if those posts only get 10 cents apiece, the volume of them adds up.

I believe we are already seeing that and these numbers prove it. As the Red Fish and Minnows post more, combined, they are getting a greater percentage of the pool in each interval. This accounts for their percentage of the whole increasing. The same goes for the Dolphins too.

Its just a matter of time really. As the number of active users goes up then the balance will swing. The whales will always be big but as time passes they will have less influence. The only thing that will balance this out is when the price of STEEM rises and the amounts will be worth more.

Also, as time passes, the Whales will cash out. There is a point where the earliest of adopters take their money and go elsewhere. This occurs all the time.

Those who got in at 6 cents or 10 cents will start taking money off the table at some point. In fact, I think many are, hence why we see SBDs being cashed out. It is a way to decrease their exposure while SBD pricing is higher than normal.

This means the ones who convert SBD to SP are actually getting a greater percentage of the total SP with each power up.

I could see that too. If I had bought into a stock at 10c and the price rose to $10 I would be cashing out some of it. Especially when you can generate more over time. I would be using the extra steem to diversify into other coins or projects. Any early adopter into a successful project will do well even if they don't put much in initially.
While I still think that we are early adopters ourselves and should do well in the long term it is nothing to the people a year before up but a lot better than the people a year after us.
I got nowhere for the first few months on site but I can see a lot more growth now after building up connections and following. Not like yourself but enough to get going.
I have been adding to my SP as i go along with the intention of having a strong account. I would love to get to 10k SP at some stage.

I got nowhere for the first few months on site but I can see a lot more growth now after building up connections and following.

Absolutely. That is the point people miss. STEEM is a compounding system and part of the payoff when compounding is time. What you do today does not pay you today buy many times down the road. Each SP you add to your account adds to your VP which means you will increase your curation reward, no matter how slightly, each time you hit the upvote button. Sure, in most cases it is not noticeable...but over time it is.

The same thing with followers...gain one today who follows you regularly, and that person might vote for you over and over again.

So few of us really are conditioned for the compounding/exponential idea that it is completely missed.

And I do agree 1000% with you on the early adopter...everyone on here now earning some SP is going to do sensational over the next couple of years.

Things are going to explode.

I am positive of this as well. This single thread has thrown in more light on the nature and complexities associated with the steem community than i have seen any where else in all of my one month here.

I greatly appreciate this informative insights. In tapping into the suggestions made here, i hope to achieve sometheing sensational as well.

That is good information . Upvoted and reblogged . 😊😊😊
Lets just keep our faith in .

I’m trying to figure out why that the number of red fish has decreased by almost 20k.
Some of the them went to the minnow cat or above but a lot of them went to the dead fish (?) catergory! Any ideas?

I do not know how @arcange sets the criteria for Inactive....it remains a mystery to me. I am using his numbers unaltered so what he presents is forwarded. Over time, as long as the criteria remains the same, I guess it is okay. They will fluctuate each time....I look at the progress of the minnow category and up...that seems to be where we will see the continued progress and the Dolphins and Minnows starting to acquire more power.

@taskmaster4450 I really enjoy theses updates. It helps to keep me motivated to try and reach the next level. It is encouraging to see that people are moving up the ladder. Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

You are welcome.

It is good to know the system is working and that people putting in the effort, will see their accounts grow. It does go slow at times, but it does happen. Gaining another 100 SP can have huge impacts on an account down the road.

Few take the time to realize that when STEEM is at $10, it will take a lot more to power up by buying STEEM. And as more people join, the reward pool is diluted meaning more people are sharing in it...this makes it tougher for the rest to get STEEM.

This all should help the price of STEEM.

I agree. We have it pretty good now. Need to work hard and enjoy the ride up in steem price. Have a wonderful day.

So i guess your advise to those new to the system would be to power up as much as they can. Else lose out in the long run as the price of steem can only soar higher, not lower.

That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.

I never knew you had to have around 500sp or above to be classified a minnow. And i have been calling myself a minnow :(

Well, this is really informative. Now , i know how the system works. Also, i know i am a red fish. Hmmmm, got work to do

I made the same mistake. I wasnt aware of the Red Fish level until long after I crossed 500 SP.

Yes I advice powering up as much as possible. It is up to each but I think the benefits are outweigh anything else.

Plus people will be very happy they did in a year or so.

This is VERY promising to see after the last result.

I wonder what the situation will be when the population becomes more flooded with newcomers. Over time the percentage will shift more and we will see more promising results.

I've come round to the belief in the past couple of days that without a change in the behaviour of the people, the platform will not work. A revelation was made evident to me after the after-chat in the PYPT show yesterday.

Its not necessarily the system that needs fixed (although some elements definitely do need to be evolved), its the behaviours and habits that newer users are forming when they join.

Better guidance from the get-go, would prevent unproductive patterns and detrimental behaviour from fabricating.

I wonder what the situation will be when the population becomes more flooded with newcomers.

It will continue...and at a greater pace I would believe. As I stated below., the reward pool goes mostly to authors and when you have greater numbers of Red Fish and Minnows posting, the system gets overloaded and the Whales simply cannot produce enough content to compete. Combined, the lower SP accounts will take a greater percentage of the pool.

I am not sure what you are referring to, although I think I can guess, but STEEM isnt going away. The behavior of some cannot override what is taking place here. As more people join, the poor behavior gets nudged aside. A few people can make a big wave in a bathtub but it isnt much in an ocean.

It makes a lot of sense. Very bright future.

STEEM no, but Steemit being the platform of choice for content creators I'm not sure. Maybe I am not well-read enough to comment, what happens if certain characters, with a very large amount of fiat, migrate to the platform and buy out an awful lot of SP and have an immediate impact in a negative way. For example, pay voting bots and neglecting good content, delegating SP and getting paid etc.

Surely that can't be good for Steemit. Granted, there will be other platforms on STEEM. I'm just bringing up the topic about Steemit.

Sure there could be some big money players come in and do what you say. However, the price of STEEM is 4 times what it was from the low I bought it at. Hence, it will take 4 times the money.

Also, at present, over 60% of STEEM is in SP...that means there is less than 40% of the total on the open market. I imagine if big buyers came in, they would suddenly start moving the price higher, making is harder for them to power up.

We also have the numbers spreading out. 60K daily active users are growing their accounts each day. In another month, the sign up process should be improved meaning that number could jump rather quickly. I think we are starting to see the point reached where the few controlling accounts are starting to be overpowered by the sheer numbers.

Each time you power up, now matter what the amount, that strengthens your account. If that is multiplied across 100K accounts each day, that is a number too big to offset.

Just my 1.45 cents.

Nice.

That's a great insight into the situation. There is a reason I stop by.

Thanks.

This report will be busy in a future of SMTs...

What Whales? @appics or @dtube or @dsound ....

STEEM minnows will be the future SMT dolphins and whales.

Yes indeed as the early adopters start to power down and explore other projects and platforms, it is the 2nd wave of early adopters that start powering up and becoming dolphins and whales.

The votes and rewards will be more spread out and people will continue creating content, upvoting and powering up.

Exactly. People cash out sooner or later...it is the only logical thing to do. At a certain point the payoff is too great to resist.

This allows for the next wave of people to move up. It is a wonderful system they created when you think about it.

I believe we will really start to see it moving quickly once the sign up process is improved. I feel there are a lot more trying to get on here than are approved in a timely manner. Once that takes place, we could see our numbers grow a great deal.

To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!
The rich are not getting richer. In fact, more of the pie is going to the smaller accounts.

This is one thing I love about the steem blockchain...they are more interested in empowering the poor and that's why the whales are losing their power. With the current war going on I think more selfish whales will definitely loose their power.

Yes, the system is not broken, is fairer and balance. This is the big difference between Steemit economy and the world economy, since the 2008 crisis the richer got richer and the poor poorer.

Wait... so I’m not a Minnow yet? Time to back up the truck and buy some STEEM and power it up!

Some day.

The level is around 500 SP. Under that you are a Red Fish...at that or above, a Minnow.

Your growth is inspiring to me, I have always been a silent follower of your account. I want to thank you for sharing the information time to time which really help us.

I think on steem I saw this a very informative post A great job you are doing keep it up I wish you all the best As its informative post I upvote it according to your statment Nice job

  ·  7 years ago (edited)

I think we, lower ranked peeps, are working out butts off to hopefully get our finger in the pie. There are a lot of whales that seem to comment and post less than they used to.

Really a great Updates thanks for sharing as its so informative It is encouraging to see that people are moving up the ladde

Nice information, excellent post, thanks for sharing

That might all be because of projects like utopian, dlive, dtube, dsound and dmania. IMO they are the ones who are shifting power back to the minnows as they don't care about your status when voting.

I think that in the future they will just equalize the differences even more.

What a wonderful platform is this ,the more i know steemit the more i become amazed.Truly this statistic reveal that steemit is maintaining its original intention of providing a platform where everybody grows together.thanks you very much for this statistic,it really show that everybody has equal chance to grow.

and that's what we seek, the help of small fishes to grow and get bigger. if the whales and dolphins are getting richer while the small fishes don't, there will be no benefit for them or even the community because the newbies will stop coming and the community will stop growing. and you provided the information in a comparative form which makes it easier to realize the difference and the change

Really this is a informative post. Your update information will help to keep update us through knowing this information. Thank you.

i always find your posts insightful...you have used a classification system that does not mention planktons, i suppose that they are replaced with red fish right?

A redfish curating a dolphins post, hoping to take a small share of the dolphins profit. What an economy!

Very informative post,thanks!
Let’s see if more people get to know about steem...l think this year will be the year! :)

I got lucky and managed to achieve dolphin status (barely, I think 5K is the threshold if I'm not mistaken) pretty quickly because I poured money into STEEM and powered most of it up when it was near a dollar last fall. I continue to trade most of my SBD to STEEM then to SP about once a week once my payouts have added up.

I'd like to be at 10K SP by the middle of the year. It's an aggressive goal but so was my goal for account value for end of 2017 and that worked out quite nicely...Probably the best investment I've ever made as there's the price increase since fall 2017 and the dividends I've gotten through curation and SP delegation.

It is nice to see a slow balancing of the system. We still have a ways to go as the whale voting circles still exist and a high level of self voting is still there by many who hold a lot of steem power. The trend is good though. Thanks for sharing your insights.

I wouldn't call you lucky.

Many like to think a person is lucky when taking advantage of STEEM at a certain price. You still have to pull the trigger and buy. I recall a lot of posts how "lucky" the Whales were being able to buy STEEM for 6 cents. Yet these same people were not buying STEEM when it went from $1.40 to $.80.

And now those same people are complaining about how "lucky" people were to buy STEEM at $.80.

Buying SP is a great way to enhance one's account. My view is it will be much tougher in the future since the price of STEEM will be higher (heck it already is).

One of the best decisions you have made, I think!
And a brave one.
A goal has to be aggresive otherwise it has no use!
It would be like doing the limbo with bar set up to such a height that you can walk under it!

Encouraging stats, I'd be interested to understand why this is happening. Perhaps it's partly because of all the new users joining, getting their free 0.5 STEEM and skewing the stats slightly, that obviously wouldn't explain the rise in dolphins though

My view is the Whales simply cannot post enough content to keep their percentage of the reward pool consistent. 75% of the reward pool goes to authors. With more people at the lower levels posting, collectively they are taking more of that pool. Hence their percentage of the whole goes up over time.

The same holds true for the dolphins. To start, some minnows hit dolphin level which adds to that total. Plus with almost 1,500 dolphins, most of whom are posting, again that takes a chunk of the reward pool.

It is a distributive system.

But the thing is that the whales vote is already worth way more than a minnows ever will so they are indeed still getting richer . Depends on how they are using their power

The system is designed to have everyone who has SP grow. Each year, every SP grows at the inflation rate so your account is growing too even if you do nothing.

However, the vote is the wrong thing to focus upon. At best, voting only entitles one to 25% of the reward on a post, 75% goes to the author. Whales are limited to the same 10 votes a day @100%. Sure they are very high votes but they are limited. The cause of the shift is the fact the Whales cannot write enough articles to keep up with the 75% of the reward pool. The numbers of 60K daily active users is simply too much....and it will only increase as more people sign on.

In the last year, we have seen the Whales percentage of the total drop from over 80% to below 70%. The Whales and Orcas had 90% of all SP a year ago and now are down to about 80%. This is a trend I keep trying to point out...that it continues.....

Get another 10K daily active users on here and you will see the accelerate more.

Thanks for breaking that down , I never knew they were limited to 10 votes but I do understand your concept . I hope we can jsut grow this platform and encourage others to join. It has already changed my life and I’m sure many other people’s as well

I agree...we all want and need the platform to grow.

Stream lining the sign up process should help greatly.

We all need to do our part to make it grow.

These dynamic changes inspire faith in a happy future.

Эти динамические изменения внушают веру в счастливое будущее.

Can you be our guest on our steemit school live discord channel. Thank you

Hit me up on discord...

taskmaster4450 #9768

Nice post
Help me
Please vote and flbck me

Good to see, I hope this trend continues. It is better for the platform to have a more equal and effective distribution. It also makes it feel like writing articles is worth your time!

That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.

Shit I'm still a redfish then...
Well still better than busy or utopian calling me plankton, that's depressing lol XD.

Great analysis with the Mvests versus the level on the platform. The whale's power will dilute more when more accounts will start to grow.

The whales can power down, and reap some rewards, then post a little and become whales again. The system works perfectly. I'm a practicing whale already, you should see how big I am. Thanks Task for this breakdown. 🐋

This is very encouraging news. Thanks for posting. We can only hope this continues and new accounts open at a good rate of pace. At the end of the day, there is room here for everybody on Steemit. Whales, Orca's and Dolphins are the wealth creators and we shouldn't forget that. They are the eco-system of the blockchain through which everything else filters down. If they are making money then it will get passed on and spread, growing the whole platform.