When will SBDs start printing again?steemCreated with Sketch.

in steemexclusive •  last year  (edited)

Short answer: we don't know because it depends on future prices of STEEM, but... we can find the earliest time that it's possible. The earliest possible time is Thursday around 8am GMT.

First, here are the thresholds (assuming no coding errors or misunderstandings on my part):

Price: $ 0.2180
STEEM supply: 496539914
SBD supply (cap): 12520066
STEEM Market Cap (calculated): 108245701
SBD supply (cap) / STEEM CAP: 0.1157
SBD print rate: 0 (calculated), 0 (queried)


Lower threshold: 0.252146
Upper threshold: 0.280162

So, when/if the median price of STEEM reaches 0.252, SBDs would start printing again, and when/if the median price of STEEM reaches 0.280, liquid STEEM would stop paying in post payouts. All liquid rewards would come in the form of SBD. Between 0.252 and 0.280, the liquid rewards come in a mix of SBD and STEEM. So, how long will it take before SBDs might start printing?

The current price feed is below, in sorted order and numbered (collected at 1358 GMT). The price feed has 84 entries (3 1/2 days), collected hourly, so if we sort the list, the 42nd and 43rd entries would have to average to a value above 0.252.

As you can see, the only value that is 0.252 or above is the last entry, slot #84. So, that value needs to be matched by another one that's above 0.252, and both need to advance from position number 84 to positions 42 and 43.

In short, if STEEM holds its current price, the earliest that SBDs might start printing again is in about 42 hours (1 3/4 days), or Thursday at about 8am GMT. Of course, if STEEM falls below $0.252 again, it will take longer - and it might not even happen.

Here is a bash command to refresh the price feed:

curl -s --data '{"jsonrpc":"2.0", "method":"condenser_api.get_feed_history", "params":[], "id":1}' https://api.upvu.org | jq -Src '.result.price_history[] | .base, .quote' | sed -n '$!N;s/\n/ /g;p;d' | awk '{print $1}' | sort -n | cat -n

 1  0.198
 2  0.200
 3  0.204
 4  0.204
 5  0.207
 6  0.208
 7  0.208
 8  0.208
 9  0.208
10  0.208
11  0.209
12  0.209
13  0.209
14  0.209
15  0.210
16  0.210
17  0.210
18  0.210
19  0.211
20  0.211
21  0.211
22  0.212
23  0.213
24  0.213
25  0.213
26  0.213
27  0.213
28  0.214
29  0.215
30  0.215
31  0.215
32  0.216
33  0.216
34  0.216
35  0.216
36  0.217
37  0.217
38  0.217
39  0.217
40  0.217
41  0.218

42 0.218 <<<- Median values
43 0.218 <<<- Median values

44  0.219
45  0.219
46  0.220
47  0.220
48  0.220
49  0.220
50  0.220
51  0.221
52  0.221
53  0.222
54  0.222
55  0.223
56  0.223
57  0.225
58  0.226
59  0.226
60  0.226
61  0.227
62  0.227
63  0.228
64  0.228
65  0.228
66  0.228
67  0.228
68  0.229
69  0.230
70  0.230
71  0.230
72  0.238
73  0.238
74  0.239
75  0.239
76  0.241
77  0.241
78  0.241
79  0.242
80  0.242
81  0.246
82  0.248
83  0.250
84  0.252
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Thanks for this helpful info on SBD rewards, and for the curl code so we can track that median Steem price ourselves!

You're welcome. TBH, I'm surprised that the price is still holding above $0.252. I figured it would drop back down again quickly. We'll see what happens in the next day or so...

The price was doing so well, until that crash back to 21 cents.

I tried the curl on Windows but it didn't know what "jQ" was, after the first pipe. I'll try it on Linux if I get a chance.

Oh, right, I forgot about that. Even some linux versions require jq to be downloaded separately. I don't know if Windows PowerShell has an equivalent command... Maybe I'll see if I can find a similar windows command for future reference.

I also keep having the same question, when will SBD be printed again and I also don't understand about TRX distribution which has been stopped for several months.

Yeah, I don't know anything about the TRX distribution, but at least it's easy enough to understand what's going on with the SBDs. As described above, if the STEEM price holds above $0.252 for about 42 hours, I think that SBDs should start printing again.

Yes, I agree with you and we'll just have to wait and see if the value continues to hold.

Yes, I think too:
My last logging is (at local time):

2023-10-24 23:25:24,104 INFO Last price: 0.263 | Current Median: 0.221 | Printing prices: 6 | Hours until printing: 36 h (26.10.2023 11:25)

Which is Thursday at 9am GMT ... If all prices are above the treshold until then.

It's slid back by a couple of hours, but so far, it's still basically on track. It's hard to think that a 7-day, 58% gain (without any news to explain it) will be able to hold for the long term, but with the traction that BTC has been gaining, I suppose it's not impossible. I wasn't actually expecting it to hold for this long. We'll see...

It's hard to think

Yes. Unfortunately, it didn't hold either:

2023-10-26 08:11:02,853 INFO Last price: 0.213 | Current Median: 0.23 | Printing prices: 24 | Hours until printing: 18 h (27.10.2023 02:XX)

Yeah. It felt "to good to be true", but I was still hoping. Too bad, I was really hoping to be able to see how the daily STEEM production numbers changed if STEEM held above the thresholds, since that would reduce the size of the virtual supply.

If the STEEM price continues like this over the next few hours, tomorrow could be the day...

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its been a year since SBD printed. What has to happen for the Steem price to increase?

With the daily production of new STEEM peaking in by February and the BTC halving coming in April, my guess is that SBDs will start printing again within 6-12 months - at least temporarily. Unfortunately, though, all we can do is guess.

Excellent post. Well explained

It looks like it will be printed this time if Steem doesn't fall hard. Generally, when the Steem price increased, they also increased the SBD price. This time the SBD price did not rise enough. SBD distribution will begin soon, but this time the SBD price will drop significantly.

Yeah, we're a day closer, and the bottom hasn't fallen out yet...