It's funny how things work out sometimes, and how you can so quickly go from an emotional high to a downright low, almost inevitably not all that long after you "hit your high". As a trader, you quickly learn to try and keep an even balance, and not let big wins "go to your head" (or bad beats either, for that matter).
From the perspective of a steemian, that would be the shock, awe, excitement, and "HIGH" many of us experienced after seeing some of our STEEMIT post payouts jump 3 fold (or more in some cases) after the HF19 hard fork went live. There was proverbial "dancing in the streets"!
Having the good fortune of experiencing these feelings before, I already knew what's coming next... It's the inevitable "hangover" you feel after that amazing time you had partying all night long. And speaking of hangovers, @michellectv has some great ideas on how to relieve some of those "morning after" pains in her post "Quick and Easy HANGOVER CURES and PREVENTION". Of course, we're talking a different type of "hangover" here, but then again, a delicious plate of bacon can probably go a long way to "fix one's mood"! lol
AFTER THE BIG WIN...
More than ever, you've gotta stay humble, lest the "powers that be" in the universe often (and usually sooner than later) slam you back down on your head, put you back in your place, and remind you how little you really know. It's also easy to change your expectations after such events, which is directly correlated to the "ego" and "hubris" that quickly materializes after hittin' one out of the park! It is human nature after all, and the passions of man never change.
Of course, such behavior does often lead to some really great opportunities while the masses are busy plowing their heads up their keesters, especially for those astute enough to understand and appreciate these dynamics. It's what makes markets after all. As Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful".
YOU WRITE TOO MUCH!
Okay, so some of you may recall the post I wrote about 2 months ago, "DON'T CONVERT SBD to STEEM, BUY IT ON THE STEEMIT MARKET!" Many fellow steemians were grateful for the insights presented in that post, and I was happy to be able to share the information and enlighten others to some of the more fascinating "dynamics" of the STEEM blockchain. However, in the process, I ALSO missed another HUGELY CRITICAL point that was literally STARING ME IN THE FACE! And this mistake has literally cost me HUNDREDS of STEEM DOLLARS in the past 2 months since I first wrote that post!
GET TO IT, SO WHAT'S THE INSIGHT?!
The same logic that applies to "DON'T CONVERT SBD to STEEM" when SBD is trading over $1 USD also applies to POWERING UP your posts! I don't know how in the world I missed the connection, but it took this post by @ausitbank to WAKE ME THE F UP!, "Ausbitbank Witness Update 20/6/17 (HF19 in 3 hours!)", with the following statement:
- Do not use the internal convert option in your wallet for SBD's at this time - you will get a better deal on exchanges.
← CHECK, got that one covered! 👍
- You should also avoid doing 100% Steem Power posts at this time, you will make more money if you use the 50/50 option and then trade the SBD you get for Steem.
← SAY WHAT???????!!!!!!!!! 😖
💡💡💡 DING DING DING 💡💡💡, DUH! For each $100 I received on a "Powered UP" post payout, I was receiving about $100 worth of STEEM. HOWEVER, all at once I woke up and realized that (screw me!) had I been doing 50%/50% while SBD was still over $2 USD, I would have received 50% STEEM, and 50% SBD, worth over $150 USD (or a 50% higher profit per post). DOHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Boy did I feel like an idiot. And hopefully no one else was following me in doing Power Ups, because that would have made me feel even worse. Regardless, as you can probably imagine, it did kick down my mood at least a few notches. Luckily, it wasn't anything that a good dose of Metallica, Megadeth, Iron Maiden, and Deftones couldn't cure.
FINALLY...
I was going to add a bunch more to this post about some other things to watch out for, especially since HF19 regarding Whaleshares and randowhale. I was also going to introduce my new "WhaleBoT" for those in the Whaleshares discord chat that automatically alerts you to changes in Whaleshare prices:
WhaleBoT: WhaleShares are currently trading at 5.50 BTS, or 1.62 USD [vp=66.86%]
However, as this post already seems to be getting a bit too long, I think it's probably best if I save that for a "Part 2" of this post!
If you missed my post on using the STEEMIT Market instead of "CONVERT" to exchange SBD to STEEM, here it is: DON'T CONVERT SBD to STEEM, BUY IT ON THE STEEMIT MARKET!
And for those of you who still need those "hangover cures", cuz my head still hurts, and that plate of bacon stills looks downright more frickin' awesome and delicious than ever...!
Link: Quick and Easy HANGOVER CURES and PREVENTION
Thanks for the tip and the bacon, haha!
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no problem, glad you found it helpful, but the bacon's all mine... stay away! :D lol
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Yummy😂😂👅 👅 👅 👅 👅
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I like the thinking outside the box @alexpmorris. Didn't think about that until you brought that up.....How long do you think that will last for? Or are you always going to do 50/50?
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if SBD get back to $1 USD or less, then it's fine to do 100% post "Power UPs". Otherwise, you're better off doing the 50%/50%, and if you still want 100% STEEM, then exchange your SBD for STEEM on STEEMIT's internal market.
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Thats my goal....Always keep powering up.
The plan is keeping it at 50/50 for now.
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Great post and tasty looking bacon. keep BOOMIN over there!
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hey man since I watch your videos, they get me BOOMIN!! I just saw the latest LTC video and bought some and also BOOMED 100% of my vote your way lol
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Thank you, glad you found it helpful Mr Crypto!
And if you keep BACON, I'll keep BOOMIN'! (ok, sorry, bad joke, sounded better in my head lol)
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Wow this what I was looking for all day... thanks man
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Good thing you mentioned that, because I was about to start doing 100% power up on my post, so now I will just keep doing 50/50, one question, just to be clear you are saying we should sell the SBD we have for STEEM?
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That's still up to you. But if you were PLANNING on fully "Powering Up" your post anyway, then yes, you can go to the STEEMIT market, BUY STEEM with your STEEM DOLLARS, then "POWER UP" your STEEM from your Wallet.
Once you're done, you should end up with a bit over 25% more STEEM than you would have otherwise (based on the current rate of SBD, which is back down to around US$1.55 now).
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Thanks for the tip 😊
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Oh wow man, yeah between your post and his post I have been doing it that way for both ever since. We will see if/when the tide changes. Thanks again!
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yeah, still don't know how I missed it. but maybe it's all good, cuz I might have just sat on 'em anyway instead of powering 'em all up. hard to wanna buy STEEM outright remembering it at 10 cents just a few months ago... Or maybe that's just me "justifying"! lol
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True, wish I woulda loaded up then but I was still licking my wounds from buying on the whole way down last summer/fall.
I will say that my price analysis post from yesterday is still valid as Steem is hanging in strong at support despite the HF influx of cash, so I decided to power up $100 worth of SBD a few min ago!
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Great advice thanks
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glad you found it helpful Ms Wisdom! :)
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:))
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50/50 option, thank you for your advice. Yes we have to stay humble, thank you for remind us about this. Nice posting! :)
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thank you happyphoenix. I almost used your profile quote again too, but figured maybe it needed a break. Don't wanna wear it out! lol
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Get to the point @alexpmorris , lol! Don't choose power up so you can bring home that savory STEEM POWER BACON!!! 🥓💥😜
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I'm onto you Missy, you're just trying to get your paws on my share of BACON! 😋
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😇
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I haven't calculated the conversion rates to do a proper comparison, but it seems that it may not be all that different between taking SBD or SP as rewards. The reason I say that is because when I receive my 50/50 pay-out, it isn't half steem and half steem dollars. The numbers are different. Since SBD are worth less than Steem, I get more SBD and less steem when I get paid. To be honest, I wish we would get paid only in steem, because as the value of steem goes up, we will get less and less if payments are based on the SBD. For instance: If steem was worth $100 USD and SBD were held at $1 USD, then getting paid 50/50 should yield say 1 SBD on a $2 USD reward and 0.01 steem. How many vests will you earn for that? How will minnows ever get to grow at that rate? You would need to earn and sell 100 SBD just to earn 1 steem along with the vests for that measly 1 steem.
Perhaps I'm mistaken because of a lack of understanding on this topic and would happily be corrected. For the time being, I want the price of steem to stay low until I become a dolphin.
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You're making a few missteps here. First of all, it doesn't matter what the current rate of STEEM is. Right now, if you choose 50/50, you're getting half STEEM POWER, and half SBD. If this eventually changes (ie. SBD is around $1 USD again) and you're getting half STEEM instead, then there's no real "edge". Now, regarding vests, and SP, and growing, there's nothing to stop you from immediately selling those SBD on the STEEMIT market and exchanging them for STEEM (and then STEEM POWER), as I've explained in a few other comments. In fact, minnows should grow faster if you do! And I did find one example to show you the difference, as @michellectv did have two similar posts, one of which was powered up, that I could use as an example:
...
steem=2.41 ... 6.623 * 2.41 = $15.96 (what we expected)
...
let's say steem=2.41 again (may have been a bit lower though), and sbd=1.75 around that time ...
(4.306 * 2.41) + (10.015 * 1.75) = $27.91!!! (40% more!!!)
Thanks for posing the question though, as it gave me the opportunity to better clarify with an actual example!
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I just re-read the above reply again and I can see that if you ignore the 1st post from 8 days ago altogether and only concentrate on the 2nd post from 10 days ago: By taking 50/50 and calculating the USD value of the total pay-out as opposed to the stated estimated pay-out of $20, you end up with about $7 to $8 more.
By listing the first post at $16, I thought you were trying to compare a $16 payout with a $20 payout and that would be like comparing apples to oranges.
I get it now. Thank-you.
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I was hoping you'd go back and look again, I was running out of ideas on how to explain it better! Sort of wish you had been right, though, since that means I wasn't tossing money out the window, but glad you got it now!
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Yes, Thanks again for taking the time to explain things.
I'm still not sure about the other aspect of it:
The above statement is true, but that was not my concern. My thinking was that regardless of the market value of steem, earnings will remain consistent and based on the SBD (assuming it is valued at around $1 USD).
If my assumption is correct, then when the price of Steem goes to $1,000 USD, in order to buy a single steem one would need to earn 1,000 SBD. That could take a very long time for a Minnow and even longer for a Redfish.
At today's market value, one need only earn 1.4 SBD to buy 1 Steem. Much easier to accomplish! And since Steem is what vests are based on, it is far easier to grow when Steem and SBD are close in value. This is also why I believe early adopters had the advantage in being able to purchase their Steem when it was only worth 20 cents (Getting 5 Steem for each SBD sold). Of course, this only applies if my assumption is correct in that the amount of SBD earned is constant and not related to the actual value of Steem.
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nothing is constant, and even at that point (or even a month or two from now for that matter), depending on the balance of the system, you may receive your 50/50 in STEEM/STEEM POWER instead of SBD/STEEM POWER. If you're worried about some huge potential move over the next 7 days, that's a different story, otherwise just convert the SBD to STEEM on the STEEMIT market as you receive it, and you're good to go.
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Hmmmm... I'm not making myself clear.
It is not the short term I'm thinking about and not even the 50/50 split (we sorted that out already). I'm just thinking about the future and what would happen if Steem takes off like Bitcoin did. Regardless of whether one takes payment in Steem or SBD, if the payout is always calculated on the SBD then I see a problem. Even if it is calculated on the US Dollar, unless the payment keeps up with the value of Steem, it becomes more and more difficult to buy Steem as its value goes up.
Like I suggested in my example:
When Steem was 20 cents, $1 USD (and supposedly 1 SBD) bought 5 Steem.
$1 USD (and supposedly 1 SBD) now buys less than 1 Steem.
When steem is worth $1,000 USD, 1 USD (and supposedly 1 SBD) will buy only 0.001 Steem.
At what point would YOU want to buy your Steem?
Now, on the other hand, if earnings were calculated and paid out based on the value of Steem, then all that doesn't matter.
As the value of Steem goes up, the earnings will rise accordingly and instead of making $10 per post one will get $100 or $1000 so that it is possible to purchase an equivalent amount of Steem with that earning.
As it is now, it takes a while to get out of Minnowship. If it becomes more difficult to purchase Steem it will only become harder to become a dolphin. Make the goal seem out of reach and watch everyone abandon hope.
I'm not concerned about how much MONEY one earns, I'm talking about how difficult it would be to become a Dolphin or Whale. Don't think of money as an asset, but simply as a means to obtain a goal. Does that make it more understandable? Am I onto something here or am I barking up the wrong tree?
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Let's try this another way. Let's say it's 50/50 and you are getting 50% STEEM and 50% STEEM POWER. STEEM = $100 US each, and your post payout shows $100. You will receive 0.5 STEEM and 0.5 STEEM POWER.
Now, let's say you receive SBD instead of STEEM. You will receive $50 SBD (expected to be worth about $50 US) instead of $50 worth of STEEM (or 0.5 STEEM). HOWEVER, that SBD is worth $2 USD instead of $1 USD. So you now have $150 US worth of STEEM POWER instead of $100 US once you exchange it for STEEM and Power UP to STEEM POWER.
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Thanks for the explanation and example, but I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around those numbers.
In the 1st example, the OP earned 6.623 Steem only. Converted to USD it is $16 (roughly).
If that SAME post had earned a 50/50 mix, how would one calculate the actual reward? Would it not have been: 6.623 / 2 = 3.3115 Steem and 3.31 X 1.7 = 5.63 SBD ?
So to convert to USD: (3.31 Steem X 2.41) + (5.63 SBD X 1.7) = 7.98+9.57 = 17.55 which is just slightly more. I don't see how one can compare 2 completely different rewards without knowing how the rewards were calculated in the first place.
The one and only time I ever converted SBD to steem, I got roughly 14 Steem for my 12 SBD. When I now look at the conversion rate, I'm getting Less Steem for my SBD, so I have not converted any since then. All these fluctuations make it difficult to know what to do when.
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The point is that in the post payout calculation, the blockchain does not consider the current price of STEEM DOLLARS. It assumes 1 SBD is always about equal to 1 USD, and issues an amount of SBD based on that.
Regarding the amount of STEEM you receive, when STEEM was worth 10 cents in SBD, 1 SBD = 10 STEEM. Currently, on the STEEM Market, 1 SBD = 1.41 STEEM. Meanwhile, coinmarketcap currently shows 1 STEEM = $2.16 USD.
And, if the blockchain's giving you more SBD than it realizes it's worth, that's where the extra STEEM comes from. But of course, if you're converting with STEEM over $2 USD versus when it was a much lower price, that's likely why you feel you're getting less STEEM for your SBD.
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At the time I converted, SBD was close to $2 USD and Steem was just above $2 USD. The spread is slightly greater now, but that shouldn't reverse the rates. This is what is totally confusing to me. It was only a week ago or so that I made the conversion.
And that is why I believe that if the price of STEEM goes up, earnings in SBD will be worth less and less as far as converting them to Steem and earning vests (unless the amount of SBD earned keeps up with the value of Steem).
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I just today figured out the SBD market vs convert trick on my own. Thanks for the heads up. I will be switching to 50/50 on my next post!
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no problem, glad it won't take you as long to figure out this other aspect, which is potentially worth even more!
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Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by alexpmorris from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, and someguy123. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows and creating a social network. Please find us in the Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.
If you like what we're doing please upvote this comment so we can continue to build the community account that's supporting all members.
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This post received a 3.5% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @theywillkillyou! For more information, click here!
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Oh man, at first I accidentally sent 2 STEEM to you @alexpmorris instead of @randowhale for this upvote due to getting caught up in the heat of the moment...consider it another donation for all your great insight ;) Keep it up & thanks for everything!
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ah thanks kindly @theywillkillyou, for the rando and for the "tip"! lol btw, also glad you all arrived safely in Bangkok. Looks like a really nice airbnb you found yourselves. Look forward to reading about the interesting experiences and hopefully good times you all have over there! :)
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Dummy...
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Thanks for the tips! So if steem were to go under a $1 (hopefully not), the we would do 100% steem power on our posts? Thanks again!
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glad you found it helpful! Just one thing though... NOT if STEEM goes under a dollar. If STEEM DOLLARS (SBD) go under 1 U.S. dollar, then you're pretty much fine doing a 100% Power Up or your posts!
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Hey, man! Hope you've been doing well. I honestly haven't been contributing much at all, but I know this info will certainly prevent countless future facepalms. Thanks!
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hey Johnny! Thanks for droppin' by, and hope all's well with you too! Too late for my "black 'n blue" face, but I certainly hope it does save many others from some of that face-palming "pain"! lol
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hey ALex!! thanks for the heads up =) that SBD is pretty tricky, I switched off of 100% powerup just a few days ago for the same reasons.
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good for you that you also realized it and saved yourself a few extra bucks!
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Great post. I have to look into the specifics of trading this stuff.
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thank you, I'm glad you found it helpful, and regarding trading, if you're really serious about learning more about trading, check out this post: EOS Highlights and Favorites from Ethereal and Consensus 2017 and search for the part with "Reminiscences". You might find that video and those free copies of great trading/investing related book rather helpful as well!
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Ill check em out thanks
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Thank you, Alex. Good to know that there are people helping beginners like myself.
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your welcome, @mrjohnson, and thanks for the comment!
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Great post with useful information!
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thank you @tangmo, now pass me some of those fresh lychees! lol :)
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You're welcome! I'm glad you like those lychees! It'll be much better if you come over to Thailand now so you can eat a lot of fresh lychees here! ;)
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You are a genius, Alex! Keep up the great work. Deserves a upvote. Yes :)
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Thanks so much for the tips here. I had a feeling about some of this, but you've explained it and clarified in a way that makes sense. Information I can use.
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glad you found it helpful! for those who need an extra example, one of the comments has a whole thread with even more detail and a specific example too
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Great post @alexpmorris! I'm still learning and thank you for sharing.
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thank you Cindy, glad you found it helpful! :)
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I must say. I missed that point earlier. Now i understand. Thanks a lot.
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glad you found it informing!
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Wow!! I need to get a taste of this
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I will upvote you , please you will follow me .
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What a bacon! :)
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Wow! This seems very significant, but... I'm a newbie and I'm having trouble following everything that you're saying. Learning so much about this in such a short period is making my brain spin - LOL. I'm not exactly sure what I should be doing right off the bat.
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Thanks for the post a little too late for me though :D upvoted and followed
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Good advice. I hope people are applying this right now.
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This is awesome post thank you for posting this looks very interesting and this is incredibleI upvoted you .
Upvote and follow @jack123
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