've been trying to figure out why SBDs are trading for well over a dollar. While meeting up with and talking to another Steemian, I had an epiphany that might go a long way in explaining the high prices. A recent post of mine listed three reasons that may be contributing to a high SBD price. I wasn't completely satisfied with these theories:
People are seeing alt coins exploding in price, and they notice that Steem Dollars haven't moved up much. Without knowing anything about SDs, they buy them hoping they explode in price soon.
SDs are traded in Bitcoin.
If 1 SD is trading for 50,000 satoshis and the Bitcoin USD price doubles from $1,000 to $2,000, the price of SDs just doubled in USD terms without a single trade being made. Before, the 50,000 satoshis was worth $1, but now 50,000 satoshis are worth $2.
Some traders don't want to sell their Bitcoin/alts for USD when they think the crypto market is going to be falling, but they don't want to be in any crypto. Therefore, they buy SDs expecting them to be more stable than other cryptos.
Regarding #1, I like to think people are smarter than this. But, it could still be the case for some people.
Regarding #2, I think this would be mostly self-correcting and SDs would revert back to $1 almost immediately. But, that's clearly not the case.
Regarding #3, this seems plausible to me, but have SDs actually been less volatile than other cryptos? Is there enough liquidity in the market for this trade to make sense?
In addition to these three reasons, @transisto gave this explanation:
The calculations involved to find SBD price in steem or btc has to be ongoing to be compatible with limit order matching exchanges. Add to that getting a poloniex account, accessing active key, withdrawing to special polo memo accounts, selling SBD for btc then buying back steem, sending back the steem to account, poloniex 2FA, poloniex email link, powering up the STEEM , The whole process is extremely convoluted and not worth it for those who actually earn the SBD, very small amount, very distributed
I believe this is a contributing factor to the high SBD price, but I don't think it's a sufficient explanation.
Why would it make sense to pay more than $1 for SBD?
The US government taxes capital gains. If you bought $100,000 of BTC and sold it for $1,100,000, you'd have to pay taxes on your gains of $1 Million. Depending on where you live, your tax bill could be over $500,000. You may want to sell your Bitcoin because you believe there'll be a significant price correction, but the $500k tax bill might give you enough reason to hold.
According to a CPA, selling your Bitcoin for another crypto is not a taxable event.
Consider this set of circumstances:
You believe the Bitcoin price will fall 50%
SBDs are trading for $1.20
You won't be taxed if you buy SBD with your Bitcoin
You believe you will always be able to get $1.00 of STEEM for each SBD
You don't trust Tether
You take 10 Bitcoin and buy some SBD for $1.20. It turns out you're correct, and the Bitcoin price falls by 50%. You then take your SBD and convert it into STEEM. You take that STEEM and rebuy Bitcoin. You just turned your 10 BTC into about 16.7 BTC without having a taxable event.
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