A Casual Analysis for Steem Speculators

in steemit •  8 years ago  (edited)

Preface.

After using Steemit for a good few months, its community is undoubtedly one of its best features. So I took some time studying the potential, and this is doubly fueled by one question whenever I'm doing my rounds curating and voting with @curie - why are we rewarding diversity?

From a financial standpoint, doing so is effectively adding to the cost of improving diversity and decentralization of the network. Subscribing to antifragility, I believe this is a must for any next-generation social media community.

The inclusion of real incentive and motivation are game-changers. But is the gameplan to reward diversity, sustainable?

This write-up are my thoughts on the multi-dimensional qualities of Steemit and its potential value. And of course, I'm writing this in hopes to strengthen Steem as a cryptocurrency. All without getting into the topic of sound economics - that's for others to debate. There's only preference for economic models, and I believe the settings for optimization are not set in stone, but discovered and adjusted through experience.

In order to be able to better gauge the value of Steem, I will try to present my thoughts about it in different perspectives.


1. Steemit as a valuable public utility.


Worth something or not, Steem still remains a functional public utility with its own transparent data and economy. It doesn't matter who you are, or where you are from. Interact with the community by posting and chatting on Steemit. Earn Steem, build reputation, and gain ownership of the organization.

Build an involving personal and collective enterprise along with others. With zero transaction fees, and social tools at your disposal. Public utility is an important word here. I believe that Steem / Steemit is low-barrier enough for public use, even to augment existing enterprises. Its accessibility should be continuously refined to become its strength.


2. Steemit as a valuable userbase.


We have a sizable number of active users that are building the next (frictionless) community of sorts. I'll put a ballpark of 500 - 2000 users that are actively involved, at the time of writing. With stakes baked into Steemit usage, there's no denying that the valuation of active users are entirely different.

I'm not an expert in userbase valuations. The ballpark figures I'm getting out of social media sites like Facebook range from $3.00 - $150.00 per user. For platforms like Freelancer being valuated at $550 million with a userbase of 20 million, this amounts to about $27.50 per user.

Well if you're a regular and have soaked in enough of Steemit - you'd agree with me that the activities and userbase transcend the regulars - Facebook, Twitter, Linked-in, and even gig-oriented platforms like Fiverr, Freelancer, and such.

The fact there are economic incentives intrinsic in the social system enables autonomy, mastery, and purpose. There's a general vibe that promotes the best out of our thoughts and actions. Even without direct rewards. I believe that a more conscious, constructive community is highly valuable.

The value of its userbase could be derived from many forms.

a) Steemit as a human-resource apparatus -

Relationships and reputations built on Steemit enables dots to be connected easily. Everyone is a recruiter, and could organize themselves to efficiently recommend accounts that would be able to complete tasks. More value can be added, if the following improvements are made:-

  • A system for tagging accounts. Maybe a mix of self and consensus-based tagging.
  • Machine-learning implementation as part of the HR process. This could work towards an on-demand gig economy.

b) Steemit as a gig economy -

This is in perspective of gig-oriented platforms such as Uber, Fiverr, and Freelance, along with the view that the userbase on Steemit is collectively, an efficient human-resource apparatus. I believe that the future of work is one that is free-flowing. Everybody has different skills and assets that are valuable.

With anyone being able to build anything on the Steem blockchain, smart contracts or apps that leverage on the metrics and cognitive mass of Steemit, could reliably derive value from its growing userbase. This could potentially be relevant in the gig economy - an extreme example, being able to use Steemit for virtual assistance.

c) Steemit as a virtual assistant -

There's a growing number of on-demand virtual assistant startups, like OkayRelax and Supahands. Outsource any tasks. If you agree that Steemit's diverse userbase could supercharge virtual assistant services in many ways, then this point is particularly valuable.

Plus, if you post something reasonable enough for assistance on Steemit, you'd most likely get good help - maybe even free-of-charge. If Steemit's userbase is perceived as helpful and knowledgable enough, one could even sponsor a post or account to acquire enough attention for something to be addressed.

d) Steemit as a university -

Well maybe I'm overstating. But this is by far the most accessible introduction and birthing-ground / launchpad for cryptocurrency education. What if Steemit becomes the hub for learning and discussing cryptostuff? There are already small-time tutorials and workshops going on.

Definitely a space for improvement here, particularly on the crypto side of things. Like learning to mine, figuring out ways to augment lifestyle with cryptos, and program stuff for Steem, Ethereum, etc.

Beyond the crypto-domain, there's a feedback loop in generating more social awareness through generalists, ambassadors, and educators.

e) Steemit as a trading platform -

Store functions like Peerhub, alongside various reputation scores and dynamic peer-to-peer recommendation will enable any good actors to conduct business, even if independently. To bootstrap a trading startup at this stage of Steem, it pays to study the wants and needs of the Steemit accounts that earn good amounts of Steem.

As the platform matures, Steemit or some other Steem-app could become like eBay. It could very well turn out to be one of the biggest crypto-fiat gateways.

f) Steemit as a content generator -

There's real content here! From travel tips to novels, there's a great deal going on. I guess being able to curate thematically and make the contents monetarily relevant for internal / external markets will provide an abundant value stream.

g) Steemit as a content curator -

The incentivized cognitive mass on Steemit enables mindful content curation. This could be applied to both internal and external contents. Independent or collective publishers could use curated contents to reach their own audience, or indirectly improve the ecosystem by extending outreach to other medias.

Needless to say, if Steemit is widely adopted, its contents and curation will become more valuable.

h) Steemit as a social space -

There's really no reason why someone wouldn't use Steemit even for the usual social functions found in Facebook / Twitter. This site is only going to improve over time. Continued usage in many different, social ways are definitely valuable. Too add to that: crowdsourcing and crowdfunding can be done easily on Steemit.

i) Steemit as a travel companion -

One of the biggest markets is mobility. As work, education, leisure, and travel progressively becomes one and the same, the increasing demand for such a solution may prove to be very valuable. I believe the community and characteristics of Steem / Steemit would be able to provide flexible solutions, if there's a mass adoption to cover enough grounds for mobility.

j) Steemit as a self-regulating community -

There are already plenty of initiatives going on around the community to fix problems, and improve the experience on Steemit. This goes from curation, plagiarism checks, to discussions and debates. From the perspective of a firm or company, this is highly valuable for the long-term, especially if you subscribe to decentralization and antifragility.

k) Steemit as many other things -

I could probably go on and on, but it all really comes down to what you want to build together - given the low-barrier, reliable, and loose enough structure to provide value. The strength is with the diverse userbase that's constantly evolving as a community, connected across the globe.


3. Steemit as a valuable cost-saver.


Who wouldn't want a platform that can provide cost-savings? The potentials of a quality, diverse userbase that's continuously learning and improving shouldn't be underestimated. The growing Steem / Steemit userbase should be leveraged. This is in itself, a cost-saving practice. Building your own database takes plenty of time and effort.

I believe the community will get more responsive and more immediately useful over time, with wider adoption. This is, of course valuable, as it enables individuals to be enterprising in a relevant community.


Conclusion.

As I've mentioned earlier, there are running costs for Steem as a self-regulating entity - and this is partly abstracted as an operational cost. There's a general sentiment about the Steem generated and distributed daily are excess, bleeding out of the system while reducing market capitalization without much promise of returns.

It's true that some rewards given out may not end up manifesting in the system. People come and go. Some promises may turn out to be empty. But I think most would stick around and deliver as much as possible. It is up to the community to self-regulate and be vigilant.

The only problem now is the possibility of another crypto social platform getting enough long-term funds to sustainably reward, retain, and build their userbase over time. There's no science to this, but this project will really take off once the currency becomes widely relevant and actively used.

I hope this write-up sheds more light into the long-term gameplan of sustaining and growing a great userbase that could provide great returns for early-adopters. A platform that rewards a constructive, inclusive, long-term community is antifragile as it can be. That's valuable.

It's an arbitrary number, but I think a 0.5% of Facebook's market capitalization is entirely possible (that's $ 1.8 billion)!

Not a rich dude, so I'll be contributing my time and effort writing, curating, and building stuff on Steem - all in hopes to create better value streams in the future. I've invested, skin-in-the-game with a good number Ethers as well when Steem was above $2. Please note that it was something that I can afford to lose.

I just happen to think that this is an incredibly valuable community. Involvement and responsiveness of community members should pick up as the platform matures. That's the real money.


Preface image from Wikimedia. Conclusion image from Pixabay.



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Really great and comprehensive look into Steemit today, Kevin. Thanks for sharing this. I really am excited to see the umbrella of disciplines that this platform has the potential to bolster as it matures. The university being a big one... (I think education is due for a big disruptor)... For Steemit to be a university-disruptor a bunch of items including the search function need to be improved. The google-powered search plugin isn't up to par. Right now, 25+ hour content dies too quickly! But with a few simple time-based filters we could make it easier to dig for information and allow folks to access content more easily.

I feel like these changes are inevitable as the platform improves. Once a user can better navigate Steemit it would entice educators (among many others) to engage with it more seriously. Anyway... that could add an extra "0" on your valuation :) Thanks again for sharing!

At first I wanted to see if I could get you to illustrate some of the stuff described.. maybe when I get a better, simpler idea of showing this. The feature rollouts are slow but I hope that's just a time-window check up on what happens to the network..

There's a burn rate for every start up.. I wonder if there'll be enough fuel to get to the stage when it self-sustains, and become a widely adopted app with its wallet etc. It's already working, but I guess some kind of time-to-time protip / guide would be nice to point to different things doable around here.

Awesome, it would be really cool to illustrate a tool kit / beginner's guide. Something easily navigable / curated based on user interests etc... I'd definitely be interested in drawing something up when you've got a more boiled down version. Keep me posted!

Steemit will continue to grow and mold to people's curiosities and needs. We're still early in the game. With more time and a few more updates we'll "have nowhere else to go but up"

First of all, this was a great way to explain things in a way that a novice can understand. Second... great use of "The School of Athens" its my favorite painting.

Thanks @hanshotfirst :). May be too far fetched, but that's how good i think the fundamentals are. Just wondering what's upkeep cost for such a platform as it grows.

"The School of Athens" - looks like a casual stroll, right?

Also in the paining it looks like Plato is saying "Steem will go up" while Aristotle is saying "Whoa let's stay calm". LOL

That was indeed why I used that picture!

Perfect choice!

Great post man! @kevinwong . WE appreciate all of your efforts to make this a better community. Keep doing what you are doing :)

Thanks @funnyman, glad you enjoyed the read. Anything bout blockchains and immediately relevant stuff that interests you?

Being a Developer, I wonder about the complexity of Steemit business model. It is truly fascinating. Great minds made it possible. For now, I deeply want to invest in Steemit financially but I am kind of a novice (3-4 months ) to blockchain technology and need some time to understand it better.

Nice one Kevin. And I liked what you have touched upon as a "self regulating community".

I hate to say this, but if mass adoption happens, this "self regulation" should be one of the most difficult to monitor, while also having the momentum to derail things around here, if we are not aware and ready.

Good reading with my morning tea, thanks!

I like to draw some parallels with Ethereum (since I'm invested in that as well). Ethereum, as a world computer atm is a very expensive thing to run. It's running like a computer from the 80s as well, being relatively slow. Every operation in the Ethereum network is effectively a smart contract, and nodes have to reach consensus to agree on each operation.

Now consider Steemit and its more fluid, organic "self regulating community" that's not tied to computing resource but cognition. I'm really not sure which is fast/slow, cheap/expensive to run. But I'm guessing both ways should be used and they're complementary (and each best suited for specific domains)

Worth the time to read it 5 x Hahaa

Thanks @mammasitta :!

if steemit's able to achieve even a few of those functions effectively, it'd already be demonstrating incredible value...what about some way for investors to get involved, but on a more limited basis? i know they want to avoid speculation fueled volatility, but that might be turning off potential investors too. thanks for your analysis!

Speculation is the killer app lol. Anyway, many tech companies do crazy valuations all the time. Not to say that the same should be applied here, but here at least there's issuance of tokens and transparent data for any speculators / investors to look into.

Great thoughts. Having just done a post on integrating the gig economy with the STEEM blockchain, I'm especially happy to see this brought up by an author that is more widely read here than I am.

Thanks - followed, and going to check out your article!

Awesome - thanks!

Very well written, structured and thought out. Thanks for sharing these important thoughts, we can only assist in Steemit's overall growth as a community and prepare to take flight once more. Upvoted

Thanks @verbal-d - there's just one thing that's "disturbing" me. In terms of measuring and comparing the userbase here vs. other platforms, I believe there's no good way to tell that the community here is better, it's just a personal experience that many have expressed..

You're most welcome, and yes as long as we have a large amount of people sharing their own personal experiences using steem it and expressing a positive experience, then it's safe to say that there is an overall consensus of value, accessibility, and acceptance of this wonderful social platform

Ignorance is bliss. Now that I know there can be valuable depth in a social media platform that actually encourages thinking, communicating and the sharing of information, I find it exceptionally more difficult to spend any time on my "old social media platform". It now really feels fake and wasteful of my time. We do become just like the company we keep and I've learned so many new things, in a short period of time. I give usable information to others and they give usable information to me in return. I think that's exceptionally valuable and it continues to motivate me to keep participating. I feel "lucky" to be involved so early on. Keep thinking and sharing your thoughts @kevinwong. :)

My FB account is totally dead after discovering Steemit :P But it's not like I use it much anyway, except for the occasional long post that no one reads. It was my meme universe, but gosh it got mind-numbing. Still, I wish a good chunk of their social tools are available here.. or maybe not. I think Steemit's direction of studying and adding, tweaking features is a good way forward.

Wow, somebody has really been thinking! Great job coming up with this list and exploring what each of these uses could mean for our community.

$1.8 billion, here we come!

Can't believe I lost sleep writing something like that lol. But its fun. I think the userbase will be more diverse on Steemit compared to other cryptos. For Ethereum, the smart thing they're doing to get people into crypto is to give fractions of Ether for someone with an Internet (and Mist Browser) automatically running as a partial node. Infrastructure and micropayments are their low-barrier entry points.

Can't wait to see what smart contracts here will bring. Definitely an interesting time :)

When you mention Steemit as a university, you do not need to restrict it to the cryptocurrency domain. In the future, you may have experts in many fields ready to share their knowledge :)

Edited :D Thanks @lemouth!

Beyond the crypto-domain, there's a feedback loop in generating more social awareness through generalists, ambassadors, and educators.

:)

Bravo! excellent post which my friend @kevinwong public congratulations

Thank you @jlufer glad you enjoyed it :)

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mammamia!

super good stuff here - agreed. blockchain makes more sense to me in this context. that's f'inkin exciting!