Randowhale analysis! --- plus --- 🐋@randowhale vs 🚀@booster vs 🐳@bellyrub (...part 2)

Changes are coming to @randowhale! Before they arrive I've made a quick analysis of the current @randowhale upvote bot. This post is part two. You can find part one here.

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This is an update on my analysis of the main upvote bots. I've been looking at @bellyrub over the last week. I talked about @booster on Sunday. Now it's the turn of @randowhale. You can visit my blog @miniature-tiger or the #upvotebots tag for my other analyses.

This project was undertaken to aid my learning of SQL. These stats are based on the data in sql.steemsql.com, a fantastic tool run by @arcange. As always, many thanks for making this available!

Reminders

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• At the end of the day, the key things to focus on are the quality of your posts and your engagement with the community. In the long run, these will determine your rewards on Steemit.
• The main purpose of upvote bots is to give your work visibility. Getting your beautifully crafted post launched onto the hot list or the trending list can help to get it seen by more people who may share your interests. The "value-for-money" is far from the main story.
• Please remember that the returns from auction-style upvote-bots (i.e. @booster and @bellyrub) are not guaranteed. They are dependent on the amount of bids made in the window, by individuals competing in the auction. Your post may receive less of an upvote than the SBD you have bid.

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Comparison for Thursday 21.09.2017 to Saturday 23.09.2017

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A quick update on the comparison I published yesterday. I've expanded to cover three full days, adding Thursday and Friday, just to make sure that Saturday wasn't an unusual result.

[For those that didn't read yesterday's post, the chart is a simple comparison of the
"post upvote value / SBD bid" results for the twenty-six-or-so auction windows for each of the two auction bots - @booster in silver and @bellyrub in blue - and the "average post upvote value / 0.5 SBD price" for @randowhale - in orange].

I've now managed to capture the secondary returns which I've included in the chart below. These are the upvote values from the Frontrunner Curation Guild for @booster and from @randowhaleboost and @randowhaletrail for @randowhale.

Conclusions

• No new conclusions on the first chart. See yesterday's post for the old conclusions. The @randowhale average returns for Thursday and Friday were in line with those from Saturday and almost always higher than for the two auction bots.

• On the second chart the randowhaletrail and randowhalebonus secondary upvotes were adding around 30%-35% on average to the primary results on Friday and Saturday. Note that randowhalebonus is a bonus and may or may not be activated; for example it wasn't running on the main Thursday awake period.

• The Frontrunner Curation Guild for @booster appears to add very little extra return on average at the moment. This doesn't fit with my recollections of using @booster so I'll look into this further.

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Breakdown of @randowhale returns and probabilities

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Being a random upvoter, @randowhale adds different levels of upvote to each post; posts do not receive the average shown in the comparison above. In the chart below I include a breakdown of the different returns for each upvote level and the probability of receiving each return.

This is based on the data from Thursday to Saturday. Different results will be obtained for different periods, particularly if the underlying parameters of @randowhale are changed, but also as the steem price moves.

Conclusions

• Even the lowest upvote (1.6%) provided an excellent return - around $0.84 upvote or 168% return on the SBD$0.50 price. Around 60% of participants received this upvote.

• There was approximately a 20% chance of doubling your money by obtaining the 2.2% upvote, and another 20% chance of tripling your money-or-more by receiving one of the higher level upvotes.

• There were thirteen 25% upvotes made (approx $10 each) and two 50% upvotes (approx $20 each). Lucky people!

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Timing of @randowhale use

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@randowhale provides a pretty-much immediate upvote, allowing you to capture the 25% curation from the upvote on a new post. 41% of people that used @randowhale did so within the first half-an-hour of a post's life. The fastest upvote I found was timed at six seconds!

Here's the distribution of that 41% of participants by number of minutes elapsed.

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Further work

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That's all for @randowhale. At least until the hinted-at changes are made.

• @minnowbooster analysis tomorrow
• And then a final comparison and conclusions of how best to use the upvote bots

Let me know what you think would be useful!

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Final notes

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I note that I have no affiliation with @randowhale or @booster or @bellyrub (or any other upvote-bot) and my analysis is entirely independent.

If you have any questions on @randowhale, read this post:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@randowhale/randowhale-101-everything-you-need-to-know-about-randowhale

That's all for today. Thanks for reading!

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