RE: Basic Game Theory: Why Steemit Whales Won’t Sell Past a Certain Point

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Basic Game Theory: Why Steemit Whales Won’t Sell Past a Certain Point

in steemit •  8 years ago 

Game theory is an important tool to understand complex and chaotic systems, such as those with humans making decisions based upon emotion (fear, love, greed, etc.). We use game theory quite a bit in the cybersecurity domain as well. It's strength lies in its ability to determine likely decisions paths at any given moment, by players in the model. Something which also plays well in the buy/sell world of financial markets. Cryptocurrency is no exception.

I like the application here and agree with @Calaber24p short and long term outcomes. Thanks for your analysis.

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Humans aren't robots. We cannot assume enlightened self interest. As far as the price of Steem goes, will it matter? If Steem gets very cheap then it becomes more attractive for people who want more Steem Power. It allows people who have Steem Dollars to sell it for Steem and Power it up in the hopes the price goes up again.

Steem used to be 20 cents, and there is no reason to believe it wont go back to 20 cents again or at least under $1. We have to wait and see but I expect it to go under $1 for a brief while.

In fact, experiments have shown the opposite, people aren't entirely self-interested. Game theory has it's applications but they are limited. I can't say I ever ran across one that wasn't just something shoehorned into a situation. One of those was a game theory model trying to model systemic risk in the financial system, nice exercise but not very convincing. It most common in commodities for producers to do the opposite one might think. If prices are down, they will cull the herd and sell it off either for slaughter or alive. This is because their expectations are for prices to stay low, not just continue the trend necessarily.

The scenario here is a bit different. Whales have their profit and want to preserve it. Each downtick gives them angst and the future uncertain. Mkae of that what you will.

Game Theory is a really great area of study, especially because its a mix of economics and psychology . How do you use game theory in cybersecurity? That sounds really interesting. Thanks for the feedback !

Technology is predictable. Figuring out what the 'wetware' (i.e. humans) are going to do, is problematic. So we use game theory as a practice to both develop metric models as well as 'game-out' scenarios to see how the adversarial interaction may likely unfold.