I was going to write this a few days ago when Bitcoin was around $8400, so maybe it seems weird now that I would claim that Bitcoin's price is being suppressed right now even as it reaches a 2020 ATH...
The rules haven't changed. Craig Wright is still out there claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto with access to 1M Bitcoin.
There is a niche group of traders out there (with deep pockets) that either outright believes Craig Wright, or they wouldn't bet against him.
The odds are good.
If Craig Wright proved himself to be Satoshi Nakamoto and immediately lost 500,000 Bitcoin in a court battle, that kind of wild card could easily flash crash Bitcoin to $1000 and possibly even take months to recover. Anyone who hedges now could make a small fortune buying that dip. At the same time, that would send Wright's offesively named project skyrocketing.
Satoshi's Vision indeed.
The Time Window is short
These people only have to hold out 5 more days until the Feb 3rd deadline, but the clamps of the bear-trap are out for blood.
Already the rising tide of the halvening pump and dump approaches.
Like I said before, I still think Bitcoin is on track for $20k+ by late March.
With a crash to $10k in June 2020.
However, there are still some big pockets making hedge bets in favor of Craig Wright. Those bets won't be busted until Feb 3.
I guess we'll see soon enough.
I'm expecting a significant bump up come Feb 3rd when Craig Wright is not able to produce anything of substance. All these ridiculous hedge bets will disappear all at once. An over-correction is highly likely, resulting in pullback. If we spiked to like the $12k-$13k level I'd definitely expect it to correct for a few days.
Also expecting the bart pattern to complete on Bitcoin SV.
HODL and see.
When you think about how much Craig Wright can affect the price of his own coin, insider trading is a given. It's not even illegal because crypto can't be regulated.
Food for thought.
(I wonder who's selling into those Bitcoin SV pumps...)
On Feb 3rd, we get to see insider trading happening in real time. How soon will the results of the court case be reflected in the market before that information is made public? I guess we'll see come Monday.
I'm betting even Craig Wright is curious to see how it all turns out as well. I get the feeling he is a pathological liar who actually believes he is Satoshi at this point. Good luck finding those private keys, friend.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Bakkt started getting priced in 4 months in advance, and now we see the same is true with the inflation halving. I expect the dump to begin at the 1 month mark just like all the other "sell the news" situations before it. (including the Litecoin halvings, Bakkt, and other Bitcoin halvings.)
Until then it's up up up to late March.
Financial advice blah blah blah.
I had some bitcoin somewhere around here... where did I put it?
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Did you look under the couch cushions?
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Interestingly enough the last 2 years saw Bitcoin's best price action happen in the spring and early summer, though 2018's price action was pretty different than 2019's. Either way, it will be interesting to see if there is some seasonality at play (tax returns?) that may make the old pre/post halving patterns not quite play out like they did previously...
Ultimately I think several months after the halving we are going to see the parabolic rally again, but around the halving it might get interesting with some seasonality sprinkled in.
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I think a lot of people are going to blame taxes when the price crashes in April.
And miner capitulation.
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