The first Splinterlands Land Presale happened this past weekend on November 7th, 2020. This is an analysis of the lottery along with who was able to get land.
@kiokizz has written up a good data-centric summary here: https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterstats/lands-pre-sale-stage-1
Lottery Participants
As you can see from the game API:
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/purchases/land_lottery
There were 50 entries in the lottery for the 27 regions available:
| Lottery Entry | |
|---|---|
| 1. | @nealmcspadden |
| 2. | @jesterago |
| 3. | @cryptovaults |
| 4. | @digitspin |
| 5. | @tufkat |
| 6. | @xorcyst |
| 7. | @jarvie |
| 8. | @neoxian |
| 9. | @khazbot |
| 10. | @michealb |
| 11. | @redundancy4040 |
| 12. | @tameshon |
| 13. | @mattclarke |
| 14. | @azircon |
| 15. | @cryptomancer |
| 16. | @cryptoman976 |
| 17. | @mavrik |
| 18. | @cryptorentals |
| 19. | @evelynclarke |
| 20. | @vcdragon |
| 21. | @legendary-pool |
| 22. | @surya1adiga |
| 23. | @cat-land |
| 24. | @ryan600 |
| 25. | @cannabiscup |
| 26. | @peakpool |
| 27. | @dhimmel |
| 28. | @tppool1 |
| 29. | @tppool2 |
| 30. | @tppool3 |
| 31. | @zagorlord |
| 32. | @blockchainff |
| 33. | @shinlodragon |
| 34. | @rtron86 |
| 35. | @moriarty95 |
| 36. | @argolinhas |
| 37. | @abrockman |
| 38. | @tufkat.monsters |
| 39. | @monster.candy |
| 40. | @cryp71x |
| 41. | @peakmonsters |
| 42. | @warlocklord |
| 43. | @marcuswahl |
| 44. | @lastdaypool |
| 45. | @steelman |
| 46. | @steem.affiliate |
| 47. | @firelizsword |
| 48. | @th12-kitty |
| 49. | @cat-pool |
| 50. | @glory7 |
Of the 50 entries:
| Payment | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | 30 | 60% |
| Credits | 20 | 40% |
| Token | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Region | 46 | 92% |
| Tracts | 3 | 6% |
| Plots | 1 | 2% |
Prior to the lottery, I had been carefully keeping track of people and groups that were planning to enter:
| Known? | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Expected | 26 | 52% |
| Unexpected | 24 | 48% |
I do not have complete information (there are 4 unknown accounts that I am assuming are individuals) but to the best of my knowledge:
| Composition | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Individual | 21 | 42% |
| Guild Adjacent | 7 | 14% |
| Pool Group / Guild | 21 | 42% |
| Organization | 1 | 2% |
"Guild adjacent" are individuals closely affiliated with a guild who might offer some of their land to their guildmates.
"Organization" includes the likes of the Blockchain Founders Fund.
Also:
7 entries were just to increase chances of people who wanted only 1 region (they were boosting their odds)
6 entries were additional pools from groups that had already submitted an initial pooled entry
Lottery Results
The list of the 27 winners can be seen here:
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=REGION
And the random results can be verified here (thanks to @yabapmatt for preparing this):
https://splinterlands.com/?p=lottery_verifier
| Lottery Winner | |
|---|---|
| 1. | @marcuswahl |
| 2. | @cat-pool |
| 3. | @khazbot |
| 4. | @ryan600 |
| 5. | @tppool2 |
| 6. | @digitspin |
| 7. | @azircon |
| 8. | @tppool3 |
| 9. | @abrockman |
| 10. | @cryptoman976 |
| 11. | @steem.affiliate |
| 12. | @dhimmel |
| 13. | @redundancy4040 |
| 14. | @jesterago |
| 15. | @mavrik |
| 16. | @glory7 |
| 17. | @cryp71x |
| 18. | @peakmonsters |
| 19. | @steelman |
| 20. | @evelynclarke |
| 21. | @shinlodragon |
| 22. | @surya1adiga |
| 23. | @neoxian |
| 24. | @rtron86 |
| 25. | @cryptovaults |
| 26. | @cryptorentals |
| 27. | @moriarty95 |
Statistical Odds:
With 1 entry you have 27 / 50 = 54% chance of winning the lottery
With 2 lottery entries you have:
- 28.65% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
- 50.69% chance of getting exactly 1 win
- 20.65% chance of getting exactly 0 wins
(This means an overall 79.35% chance of getting at least 1 win)
--> This means an overall 79.35% chance of getting at least 1 win
With 3 lottery entries you have:
- 14.92% chance of getting exactly 3 wins
- 41.19% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
- 34.85% chance of getting exactly 1 win
- 9.04% chance of getting exactly 0 wins
--> This means an overall 90.96% chance of getting at least 1 win
Of the 27 winners:
| Payment | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | 14 | 51.85% |
| Credits | 13 | 48.15% |
| Token | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Region | 24 | 88.89% |
| Tracts | 2 | 7.41% |
| Plots | 1 | 3.70% |
| Composition | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Individual | 13 | 48.15% |
| Guild Adjacent | 5 | 18.52% |
| Pool Group / Guild | 9 | 33.33% |
| Organization | 0 | 0% |
In terms of success rates, which is something @digital-wisdom was particularly interested in:
| Composition | Success Rate | Numbers |
|---|---|---|
| Individual | 61.90% | 13 / 21 |
| Guild Adjacent | 71.43% | 5 / 7 |
| Pool Group / Guild | 42.86% | 9 / 21 |
| Organization | 0% | 0 / 1 |
- No individual got more than 1 winning entry (though some submitted 2 or 3 entries). One pooling group got 2 out of 4, one got 1 out of 3, and one got 0 out of 3.
Presale Results
The list of players who were able to buy individual tracts and regions can be seen here:
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=TRACT
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=PLOT
25 accounts were able to buy 1 tract each (83.33% of the 3 regions worth available). In alphabetical order:
| 1. | @angelito26 |
| 2. | @beta500 |
| 3. | @birdbeaksd |
| 4. | @conpike |
| 5. | @coronadino |
| 6. | @derrickc |
| 7. | @firelizsword |
| 8. | @gank |
| 9. | @hazem91 |
| 10. | @holoz0r |
| 11. | @jpcoco |
| 12. | @keiyoshi |
| 13. | @kira1995 |
| 14. | @mangowambo |
| 15. | @marjanko |
| 16. | @nateaguila |
| 17. | @nexonik |
| 18. | @pladozero |
| 19. | @purplegoblin |
| 20. | @rafelluz |
| 21. | @road2horizon |
| 22. | @sh4tter |
| 23. | @thomaseamoran |
| 24. | @tiffin |
| 25. | @tontito |
- The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:18.000Z", 21 seconds later (over 7 blocks).
61 accounts were able to buy between 1 and 100 plots each for a total of 500 plots (16.67% of the 3 regions worth available). In order of purchase size and then alphabetical order:
| 1. | 100 Plots | @sansuko |
| 2. | 31 Plots | @bandogge |
| 3. | 30 Plots | @foreveraverage |
| 4. | 29 Plots | @mac-spacer |
| 5. | 25 Plots | @louis88 |
| 6. | 22 Plots | @rekodesign |
| 7. | 20 Plots | @lianara |
| 8. | 20 Plots | @niallon11 |
| 9. | 17 Plots | @nicole-st |
| 10. | 15 Plots | @rafelluz |
| 11. | 15 Plots | @wehmoen |
| 12. | 14 Plots | @goldmatters |
| 13. | 12 Plots | @cannonwar |
| 14. | 10 Plots | @blazar-force |
| 15. | 10 Plots | @coyotelation |
| 16. | 10 Plots | @torrey.blog |
| 17. | 10 Plots | @viniciotricolor |
| 18. | 7 Plots | @lainiwakura |
| 19. | 7 Plots | @sevenoh-fiveoh |
| 20. | 5 Plots | @citrus-soap |
| 21. | 5 Plots | @ethereumking |
| 22. | 5 Plots | @kepslok |
| 23. | 5 Plots | @kizadan |
| 24. | 5 Plots | @thehermitmonk |
| 25. | 5 Plots | @xantis32 |
| 26. | 4 Plots | @raiseup |
| 27. | 4 Plots | @slayzz0r |
| 28. | 3 Plots | @chorock |
| 29. | 3 Plots | @fullcoverbetting |
| 30. | 3 Plots | @maddietel |
| 31. | 3 Plots | @makogr4 |
| 32. | 3 Plots | @scosmos |
| 33. | 2 Plots | @carpentr |
| 34. | 2 Plots | @chorock |
| 35. | 2 Plots | @digital-wisdom |
| 36. | 2 Plots | @dogboy |
| 37. | 2 Plots | @hagwench |
| 38. | 2 Plots | @haseez |
| 39. | 2 Plots | @holoferncro |
| 40. | 2 Plots | @kryptomario |
| 41. | 2 Plots | @mezzmezz |
| 42. | 2 Plots | @simoneg |
| 43. | 2 Plots | @trifenix |
| 44. | 2 Plots | @tsnaks |
| 45. | 2 Plots | @whizzkid |
| 46. | 2 Plots | @zottone444 |
| 47. | 1 Plot | @abc.love.steemit |
| 48. | 1 Plot | @alex-hm |
| 49. | 1 Plot | @battlemaster |
| 50. | 1 Plot | @eduardovozzi |
| 51. | 1 Plot | @fabm |
| 52. | 1 Plot | @ito626 |
| 53. | 1 Plot | @johnnancy2 |
| 54. | 1 Plot | @mobi72 |
| 55. | 1 Plot | @mongshter |
| 56. | 1 Plot | @smukkers |
| 57. | 1 Plot | @stealthtrader |
| 58. | 1 Plot | @tillysfamilyfarm |
| 59. | 1 Plot | @tillysfamilyfarm (again) |
| 60. | 1 Plot | @wolven-znz |
| 61. | 1 Plot | @yebaoba |
- The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:21.000Z", 24 seconds later (over 8 blocks)