the crisis of everything (crashes ahead)

There seems to be some consensus: market crash ahead. The reasons are obvious. The debt bubble and the end of cheap money will spread bankruptcy. There is little to no trust in the markets. When you browse all the financial vids, you will have a hard time finding optimists. Some call 2019, others 2020. People are predicting corrections from 20% up to 90%. Doom & Gloom! The silver & gold investors call the bottom on these metals and foresee a dramatic rise.

The thing bout Gold & Silver is that you can browse back to the beginnings of youtube and find people predicting gold and silver to moon. Never really happened. Why will this time be different? Many reasons it might. Many stories in the market. Both gold and silver are horded by big power houses. There is rumor that China and Russia will develop a gold backed crypto secure trading token to settle energy deals, putting the USD outside the game. There are rumors JP Morgan is buying all physical silver it can lay it's hands on, manipulating the price down, waiting for the moment to hit. We simply have no opinion on the future prices of gold and silver and it's possible relation with a widely expected hyper inflation. Too complex to say anything with a reasonable amount of certainty. We think it always makes sense to own gold and silver, whatever the price is doing.

The million dollar question is what crypto will do. We expect the arrival of asset backed coins and secure tokens. Centralized coins that will take full advantage of the blockchain and ledger technology. That makes a lot of sense. The problem will be the auditing, like it is with tether. Another problem will be the temptation of fractional behavior, making these coins as bad as fiat money.

What will happen to Bitcoin and what will happen to ALT coins? Looking back at 2017+2018 you can arrive easily at the conclusion that a Bitcoin only strategy was the right strategy. Except for some spectaculair pumps and dumps, the Alt coin market just followed the Bitcoin trend. Many Alt coins disappeared and many more will. It seems very unrewarding to put a lot of effort in crypto portfolio diversification. At cryptmove we shrink to a maximum of 15 crypto positions - our own basket. We are very disappointed about the ICO market. We still think it is a legitimate way to raise money (despite that it is used massively for schemes and silly ideas) but we are not on the front of adoption. Too much work. To get a grip on this market you need a big team. We do not have a big team. Most crypto investors do not have a big team either. Unloess you have the power to manipulate pumps and dumps, you are very unlikely to profit from it.

There is a more fundamental question to ask: was Bitcoin a hype and will it fade into nothing? This is the opinion of Peter Schiff. He did not make himself very popular among crypto lovers, but his market analysis makes a lot of sense. It is a weakness among crypto enthusiasts not to listen to adversary advice. It's like bringing software on the market without testing it. It is a good habit to list all arguments against and think them trough.

We do think there is too much expectation about institutional money and regulation. We wrote it before: if the real Big Buck decides to get in, it will do so on it's own conditions and not to moon all the shitty ALT coins around. We hope Bitcoin and some other coins will do extremely well - but be sure: it's hope, not expectation. We can imagine Bitcoin back at USD 100 as well as at 30.000. We just follow the market and trade extremely safe.

Nobody knows what will come out of the many global crises around. Will Europe become a totalitarian space with censorship laws in place and a EU army beating up the populations that have set their minds on freedom? It is very well possible. Trapped in Euro, probably trapped in an EU army soon - despite the yellow vests it seems that the EU will succeed in it's totalitarian design. The price will be (is already) deprivation and poverty for the European populations under EU rule. A big question above the market is if Britain will indeed regain it's sovereignty. With the sell out of Theresa May that seems highly unlikely. For the bureaucrat elites in Brussels the worst case scenario is a British economy outperforming the EU. They put all their money and manipulative powers in the field against just that. Their luck is that the country is full of Trojan horses....

Further there is the Big Question what all the wars will do. Afghanistan, Jemen, Syria etc.: Trump seems to have the good sense of pulling out, but might feel forced to start a war on Iran or some other country for domestic political reasons. The trade war and tariffs are not that important. What we call free trade is a far cry from free trade to begin with. It is power driven and manipulated. There is no free market. We live in the west in societies that are managed by cartels. They make the laws and own the governments. In Europe the situation is worse than in the USA. The EU is ruled by unelected institutions and is heading to the Chinese system (not vice versa!). We are in a new age of totalitarianism.

All seems in a crisis: markets, political systems, beliefs. Too many scenario's and we will not predict anything. The only thing we do predict is that there will be massive changes for good or for worse. Common narratives are finished, the belief in them has vanished. People are busy everywhere to find new deals. The best thing seems just to follow the charts on a daily basis and be prepared to act instantly.

From a crypto point of view we are happy with Bitcoin at 100$. That means it will still exist and it would be great if after all regulation and influx of institutional money with all kind of centralized solutions there would remain some digital money that was free from this. Bitcoin, Dash, Monero - our top 3. Also we sincerely hope STEEM and BAT will survive and grow. They are real good projects.

Not much of a prediction - but it's the way we look at 2019. What should worry all of freedom loving people most is the extreme power of bureaucratic institutions ending democracy. The biggest dangers to all our societies are UN and EU - and federal government. Democracy as we know it is dead. It has become clear electing politicians in party systems has nothing to do with democracy. Representative democracy is not democracy - it is one establishment run by central banks and narrow elites. Getting power back to the village seems the only right approach. That is possible and maybe blockchain solutions can play a large role in this, by keeping the system fair. Open minded and global - but verifiable and decentralised.

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