My target numbers on GDX are 22.94;23.30;23.87;24.45;24.80 and 25.42 (1st true "bull" target). We are still retracing the move from 24.88 on April 13th to the low on July 10th of 21.00. I know there is a great deal of excitement and chatter about the new "Bull" market but until that 25.42 is taken out, I am not convinced. September 6th is an important "time" in the HUI based upon a high posted on 09/17/12. It is a "top", now where it goes after that is anyone's guess ie sideways and then up just like this past week. I have significant concerns not just in gold mining stocks but also for the overall stock market. I ran a similar "time" chart for the S&P that started on a different date but showed a "top" in early September, in fact September 6th based upon the low posted on 3/5/2009! Two completely different start dates and both end up on September 6, 2017 showing a "top". Quite frankly, I have never seen that before and it has me spooked. I promised my wife, months ago that I would have little to nothing in the market next week. Does that mean anything is going to happen, no but does that mean something rather drastic could happen yes. I know this is a long reply, but truthfully I am very concerned. I am never afraid to chase the bull but terrified of being ripped apart by the bear. If this is a new bull that makes trading easy, always long.
To answer your specific question, 23.30 would be a back test area, if it goes to that level wait for a simple "buy signal" on the daily chart ie the close is higher than the open and it hit one of those target numbers +/- $0.02.
Appreciate the reply. I am of the view that the stock market has put in a short term bottom now and the SPY will make a new ATH in Sept - Oct. The next correction could be a big one in stocks. Gold I believe is in a new bull market, I dont think we need confirmation of 25.42 because it has now made a higher high over the last cycle top, also higher lows. Trend is now bullish. I think the correct play is to buy mining stocks on dips, if it dips lower just buy more!
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What I would really like to see, to confirm a new gold "bull" market, is for the HUI to skip several of the target numbers ie 206.37, 212.24 and/or 215.76 and start hitting the numbers at or above 222.03. It would be great if that happened between now and September 6th. The reason would be that if there is a "dip" after that, the "buy" opportunities would be at these levels.
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