So much for the series win. Facing the return of Alex Reyes this afternoon, the Brewers best chance at winning their series against a true, NL Central competitor came to screeching halt last night at the hands of Michael Wacha. Wacha went 6 2/3rds and managed three K’s, 2 hits, 4 walks, and 1 ER. Sure, everyone was saying the Brewers were hitting bullets off of him directly towards defenders, so maybe Wacha is more of a Braden Looper type than Cy Young. Still, it was a big game to win last night, and the Brewers laid up a lackluster effort. Even when the home plate umpire made a huge erroneous call on Lorenzo Cain in the 7th to end the inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd, I didn’t see Counsell get kicked out of the game. Show some fire, dude. That was a huge moment of the game, and you let the umpire get away with that call? You needed to be around to bring in Jennings and Williams to finish a 6-1 game? Get out there and bash that guy for making a bonehead call for the Cardinals. Good God, it’s like watching Mike McCarthy for 16 games. Show some fire already, Captain Craig.
That leads us to Zach Davies. Davies had a brutal outing last night. Word on the Web was that he was still dealing with soreness in his shoulder/arm after falling down during his last outing. OK, that might be true, but Captain Craig let his flounder out on the mound for 5 innings. If he was truly hurt, why was he out there for 5 innings? Captain Craig let the New Thin White Duke yield 2 home runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, and 5 ERs. Captain Craig then decided to bring in the combination of Logan and Barnes to work the 6th and 7th. Logan and Barnes did come through, but given both of their track records of late (ie the two statistically worst closers in the bullpen), I think Captain Craig mailed it in after the 2nd inning.
Oh, and they lost Saladino last night too.
And now here we sit, today, facing future ace Alex Reyes. Reyes is likely going to throttle the Brewer line up today, so that sits MIL once again with a series loss against a very good MLB team. This might be the pattern we see for the balance of the year – I’m going to call it the “Teddy T/Mike McCarthy/Capers” effect going forward. You know – “let’s win against mediocre competition, but then get thumped by well run/well-managed organizations.” The Brewers might be 35-21, but those damn Cubs and Cardinals are only 3.5 and 4.0 games back respectively. After today’s game, the Brewers will likely only be up 2.5 and 3.0 games heading into June.
Top 5 / Worst 5 Plays
No surprise that the guy previously batting lower 200’s, Matt Carpenter, is destroying MIL this series. Would it kill the MIL pitching staff to just once keep him from getting on base/hitting home runs for one friggin’ game?
Today’s Preview
Today features the return of future potential Cy Young candidate Alex Reyes. Reyes went down with an ACL injury in 2016; today is his first game back.
Milwaukee’s best chance is to roll out as many left hand hitters as possible today. They also need to hope that Reyes has some rust on his arm yet. They should also hope that Junior can get through at least 3 innings this afternoon.
Lineup Data
Well, it looks like Captain Craig is indeed hoping for a miracle and rolling out the lefties this afternoon. Kratz, a RHH, has a very limited data set.
Look for Carpenter and Martinez to light up Guerra today.
Defense Comparison
Bullpen Review
Barnes and Logan both improved upon their metrics. As did the Cardinals’ Hicks. The BS strike out call on Cain didn’t help Tuivailala much.
Prediction
I think MIL has a 42% chance to win today; if they get after a rusty Reyes, they have a chance to stay in the ball game. I’m not expecting Guerra to do much against a Cardinal offense that is suddenly ready to thrash the Brewers again. Fangraphs have MIL at a 44.8% chance to win, and Vegas is giving STL the nod at -115. Money has moved the game to be a lower scoring affair compared to where it started last night. Let’s go Crew, but let’s not get overexcited.