As I’m not a native English speaker, sometimes I have doubts if the meaning of the words is equal to all of us. Particularly the word

Believe

---

We can have the discussion about believing and we can have different beliefs if we are speaking about sports, girls, cars or food. We can have beliefs and thoughts about the topics that can’t be easily measurable.

If you plug my brain on EEG or fMRI, you could measure my response to blond girls vs brunettes, but the final conclusion would be very, very fuzzy.

But… We can’t have our beliefs about the topics that are exact:

This is a tiger, not a dog, and no matter how much you believe this is a dog, it will be a tiger:

source

5 + 7 = 12

No matter what opinion you have about this, the result will be the same.
You can’t have your own opinion about this unless you want to be wrong.

The problem with scientific topics is the fact that those topics are difficult to understand, even by another scientist.
Just like different sports. NBA star could understand the basics of Handball or Volleyball and play them reasonably well, but he couldn’t understand the Dakar Rally.

I don’t believe in herd immunity!

---

Well, let’s do the math! I’m promising, no formulas, lot of play, even a kid will understand

How it works?

Simple… This is known as the “game of life” and it goes like this:

• There is a matrix (Excel worksheet) with simulated people, one cell – one man.
• And they all start with the value 0. Zero means – healthy.
• But there is a guy who caught the disease and he has the value 1 – ill.
• Now, random numbers are generated around him (from 0 to 1).
• If the neighboring cell is vaccinated, it will become ill if its random value is > 0.9.
• If it’s not vaccinated, it will become ill of the random value is > 0.1.

Now, let’s play!

Open this website: http://www.software3d.com/Home/Vax/Immunity.php

We will simulate the disease that is spreading among the people in close contact.
The efficiency of the vaccine will be 90 % when the subject is in the contact with the disease.
Among those who are not vaccinated 9 of 10 will catch the disease.

Why 90 % every time the contact happens? Well, let's call it the mutation in disease and some of the immunity is lost.

Vaccinated are more ill than non-vaccinated!

Ok… Let’s set the value of vaccinated to 0.97 (just perfect, 97 %).
Now left-click some green dots, far away from the red dots (not vaccinated).
Your plot will look a bit different from mine, but it’s normal, as it works randomly.
After a lot of clicking, I managed to infect 8.5 % of vaccinated and 0.0 % of non-vaccinated.

So vaccines don’t work! Here is the proof!

There is a threshold, fragile boundary…

Set the value to 0.95 (95 %), click randomly 10 times.
I got this, 5 % infected, 4.8 % from vaccinated and 11.1 % from non-vaccinated.

That small difference in percentage, from 95 % to 97 % is the key to save those who can’t get the vaccines. Those ill people, with weak immunity, with cancer we are protecting them.

See the difference, from 0.97 to 0.95.

Now switch to 0.8 and do 10 clicks.
Wow! Now we have 50 % of infected! From 11 to 50, just like that.

How deep the disease spreads?

Let’s play again, now un-check Same as left.
We will put the raging disease on the left by typing 0 and well-prepared population on the right with 0.95.
Click on any red dot on the left side and watch.

Try 10 times, the disease will never strike far-right side

Now, change the value to 0.8
It’s a bit worse, but not devastating.

With the value set to 0.6 and especially 0.5 – it spreads like a wildfire

You vaccinate, I will not! Why are you afraid of, the vaccine will protect you with 90 % efficiency?

Let’s play…
0.1 (10 %) vaccinated, and the result is:

In this case, the vaccine protects me with the 90% efficiency under normal circumstances, but the result is only 50% because I came in contact with so many patients during a long period of time that my 90 % got seriously compromised.

Don’t Believe in Herd Immunity

Understand it instead

5 + X = 10

Find X, don’t ask FB group, don’t ask Google, don’t ask YouTube, understand it

Don’t believe it!

I hope I provided some good and simple arguments. It is ok to be wrong for some time. I was wrong, my colleagues were wrong, Tesla was wrong, Newton was wrong. Every single thing person was wrong. Hundreds of time.

But once you get the evidence, proofs and logic - change your standpoints.It's not the virtue to stay with the false beliefs