Probability-The Mathematics that decides Life (A Brief Research Article)

in steemstem •  7 years ago  (edited)

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In 19th century people used to believe that, everything in nature could be precisely determined by classical physics. For eg. It says If we give initial condition like time, position, velocity etc., we can find all the information related to it after any time‘t’.

Classical+world+is+Deterministic +Knowing+the+position+and+velocity+of.jpg

But at the beginning of 20th century the whole picture changed. With the discovery made by Rutherford, Bohr, Einstein and Planck and others there established a whole new branch of Physics called Quantum Mechanics. It deals with the world in quantum (microscopic) scale which describes event in probabilistic terms rather than deterministic. Then we come to know that our everyday world rules are governed with laws of probability and uncertainty.

Let’s take a beautiful example here,

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We know that if we toss a coin, the probability is 1/2 for each event(for head and tail). But thats not exactly what we observe, we may toss a Coin for 10 times and each time we may get head. Then how did it made sense? well if we increased the number of trials ,the probability of each outcome tends to 1/2 and if we increase the number of trials to infinite then the probability of each outcome will exactly becomes 1/2.
Here comes the interesting part,

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The probability of birth of a boy or girl(here we exclude case of twin, triplets & homosexuals being relatively low in quantity) by a pregnant woman is 1/2 as sperm carrying x or Y chromosome can fertilize the egg( assuming in millions of sperm distribution of X and Y chromosome are equal)(and if no pre ultrasound fetal sex determination and child abortion is not done).

But a case may occur where a couple has 5 childs and all of them are girl(we can see this example in our community). Since this uncertainty could cause drastic change in sex ratio(ratio of male to female) of any country, theoretically we might observe the huge difference in number of male and female in countries. But surprisingly! it's not the case, Out of 200 countries, in every country the male and female population discrepancy is not high. Roughly in every country male and female population percentage lies in (50±3)% range. Take case of Nepal(my country) the sex ratio is 0.99male/female which is nearly equal to 1 Source(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Nepal)
i.e. there are nearly equally male and female.It then depicts that if a couple gives birth to 5 boys in one part of country ,it affects the outcome of birth of child in other part of country or in world.

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This means, ‘BIRTH OF A GIRL IN MOSCOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF BIRTH OF A BOY IN NEW-YORK.’

It can also be explained like coin toss experiment, for small numbers of trial, the result may seem absurd or unexpected I.e. we may have large discrepancy in number of boy and girl but for large population the probability gets more precise. The sex ratio of world is 1.01male/female i.e. 101 males for per 100 females, which is an astounding result. Since the population of world is 7.6 billion(till present time) which is a huge number. If we accept the probability theory then the result seems to be obvious because 7.4 billion is large number of trails (lol).

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Isn't it amazing to find how mathematics shapes and affects our daily life directly or indirectly.

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Note: In countries like India and China,people prefer a boy child to a girl child and hence tend to practice sex-selective abortion. However, both the countries have taken important steps in curbing the illegal practice.Since India has legally banned sex determination before birth in 1994, but China eased-up on its one-child policy, which is the one main reasons for sex abortion.Similar cases happens in many countries that affects the outcome of birth.

DISCLAIMER:Except the data & pictures,the whole article is 100% original and researched by me,
Mission:No plagiarism!

Data Sources and Sites used:

For more discussion on this topic (or anything related to science), please join us on steemSTEM. You can also visit us at https://steemit.chat/channel/steemSTEM and https://discord.gg/mKSKQ7T at discord.
SteemSTEM is a community driven project which seeks to promote well written/informative Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics postings on Steemit. More information can be found on the @steemstem blog.

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yes its very interesting.you have amazing eyes.

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You really interested in probability and statistics.

yes mathematics is what i lovw

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truly a futuristic post ;-)

This statement is incorrect

BIRTH OF A GIRL IN MOSCOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF BIRTH OF A BOY IN NEW-YORK

Suppose again the coin experiment and flip the coin 4 times. Suppose you would get heads on your first three flips. Then the probability to get a heads on your fourth flip remains 1/2. It does not increase.

Of course the probability that you will get 2 heads over four flips is higher than 3 heads over four flips since in this statement a specific order is not assigned (for example assigning an order would be saying the first 3 flips are heads and the lasts is tails).

yes you are 100% correct,the probability still remains same 1/2.
But as i understand,
The Law of Large Numbers states that the average of the results from multiple trials will tend to converge to its expected value (e.g. 0.5 in a coin toss experiment) as the sample size increases. The way I understand it, while the first 10 coin tosses may result in an average closer to 0 or 1 rather than 0.5, after 1000 tosses a statistician would expect the average to be very close to 0.5 and definitely 0.5 with an infinite number of trials.
Screenshot (38).png
Image source(http://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~rdecook/stat1010/notes/Section_6.3_law_large_numbers.pdf)
yes the chance is 1/2 even after a billion trials are made,but i think we dont have to make infinte numbers of trials to get 1/2 result.we may acheive a closer value to 1/2 in million or billion flips.
Thats a finite number,my intuition told me that if that was case there might be boys only in one country and girls only in other country(small countries) but that is not happenning,the population is roughly even in finite 'n' trails i.e. 7.4 billion.
so i concluded that i should excpect or chance is more to get head in next trail in 1000tail/1000toss than 100tail/100toss.
I drawed the conclusion intuitionally,it might or might not be correct. But

Indeed, the law of large numbers requires that the number of trials go to infinity. But any finite number is an infinite distance removed from infinity. Hence, even for a large amount of trials the law of large numbers cannot be applied. More generally, limiting behaviour is only valid in the limit and nowhere else.

i think i have to do some research in this topic,that there are two pars...one real world problems and other abstract mathematical problems.In abstract mathematical concept there can exist infinty and our preassumption is correct,but in our real world, everything is finite (except fractals lol)so i guess nature have to behave little bit differently to make things work.
you made me think extra because i am not going to be satisfy with your answer(though you are correct),i had grown doubt in me.I will do some extra research and calculation to see whether i am wrong or right from my perspective.I will do some research in some other cases like this birth case by taking help from seniors.Then I will write another post for this.

great post etherealcreation! keep it up! and thanks again for following!