Preparing for the next Stellar giveaway - will the price rise or drop?

Only a few BTC holders will claim their free Lumens because they know about the giveaway and they like the stellar project as well as being willing to get validated (Facebook is required). I believe that these people will be holders, since they are aware of the Stellar Foundation and they went that extra mile to get free Lumens. These people will have a minor influence on the market in my opinion.

But I also expect the following scenarios:

Business as usual, trading will be normal, exchanges do not participate in the Lumens giveaway and are not going to claim the free Lumens and are not going to credit the free Lumens to their users. Most of the 16BLN Lumens will go to the Stellar Operational Fund and will be distributed/sold to the market like I think they did with the last giveaway (all 3BLN Lumens form the last giveaway seem to be in the market now while only 1BLN was claimed in October 2016 (source: coinmarketcap.com). Mission failed :x:

The Exchanges will claim the free Lumens and sell them bit by bit. Lumens price will be at about the same price for very long, tops will be corrected while the exchanges sell their free Lumens, exchanges will have a nice free profit, no real awareness of Stellar is achieved. Mission failed :x:

The exchanges will claim the free Lumens and sell them right away, which will cause a crash of the Lumens price. It is not likely that all of them will do that in my opinion, but it could happen. People on exchanges will know about the the crash and will take a closer look at the stellar giveaways, more Stellar awareness achieved, but it will take a long time before the price of a Lumen will recover to today's price. Mission succeeded :rocket:

The exchanges will credit the free Lumens to the bitcoin holders. The bitcoin holders will wake up the next day and see that they have a Stellar Lumens deposit, they'll wonder why they have it, Google it, talk about it and there will be more Stellar awareness, three things can happen now: A) Bitcoin holders on the exchanges will dump the Stellar Lumens, it was free anyway, easy money. B) or they will hold and see what happens. C) Or both will happen. Whatever happens: Mission succeeded :rocket:

The best scenario (and most unlikely, but if it happens, you'll wish that you would have bought Lumens at the dip!): everybody was aware of the giveaway and anticipated major price drop. But it doesn't happen, the price doesn't drop. The price might rocket after the giveaway, to the moon! Mission succeeded :rocket: :full_moon:

All of the above scenario's depend in what the exchanges will do, but they are swamped at the moment with tickets and stability issues because of the sudden increase of crypto traders. So scenario 1 would be very likely. But also scenario's 2 and 3 are very likely, the exchanges are loaded with BTC and might want to go the extra mile but not the extra, extra mile to distribute the free Lumens to the bitcoin holders on their exchange.

I think that the effect of the giveaway was already seen at the exchanges, the price dropped more then 50% already from its second peek in may at +/- 3500 satoshi. We see some price jumps but it seems that the price is corrected the same day (poeple could be selling their Lumens before the giveaway?) for the rest the price has been almost a flat line for the better part of a month at the moment.

Anyway, if you got Lumens at a low price, you should hold in my opinion, the price will be more stable eventually, no matter what will happen, but it could be a long hold. Also if you bought at the peeks, still no worries, it might be a long hold, but the price will rise enough again eventually.

EDIT: did clean the post and added some formatting, but after that it was unreadable, so back to basic text...