Elmer (FUD) is Coming to Mainstream - Are you ready for it? The Stockmarket Bondmarket Fiatmarket Triangle.

in stockmarket •  7 years ago 

If you are a wabbit, be very scared (or very clever).

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The big problem with FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) is that it is contagious and rarely can be contained. The outbreak of FUD crosses all borders and sectors, it hits the mighty and the weak, the poor and the rich. In other words, it doesn't discriminate between wabbits or hunters. (If the Elmer Fudd and hunting wabbits thing makes no sense to you you should watch a Bugs Bunny Cartoon on Youtube with Elmer Fudd). So here's the thing - big media along with big finance and big government unleashed FUD on cryptocurrency on a scale we've never seen over the past two months - they pulled out all the stops without considering the larger ramifications (which is not a huge surprise given the Trump administration's example of not thinking things through - i.e. should I take this help from the Russians? Should I have an affair with this pornstar?)

The larger ramifications are these - since 2008, the Federal Reserve, the IMF, and all of the governmental and non-governmental monetary policy groups have been shoring up the walls of a sandcastle well below the high water mark. The economic meltdown of the great recession was held off for the past decade by a delicate dance of positive news and the illusion of growth as problems in one sector were hid by artificial growth in other sectors. Inflation has been gently pushed up while rates were artificially kept low. The 'recovery' has been made out of dry sand that won't stand up for very long by itself and the big thing keeping it safe has been the illusion of economic good news.

Over the past two months, in a miscalculation of epic proportions, the big banks, government and media have created a palpable air of fear uncertainty and doubt and while they have tried to keep it focused on crypto, fear doesn't know borders and looks deeper to find a solid truth - a truth which has not existed in the bond market since the 2008 collapse. The money that has been borrowed with bonds is fools money - there is no way to pay it back - unless you can repackage the bad debt and resell it (sound familiar) thus making the quality of the bonds from top to bottom lower and lower.

Bonds are what the stock market is fueled by. The stock market is what creates trust in the illusury growth of the economy. The 'growth' of the economy is what gives the fiat value. Are you following me here? The fiat is what is used to set the value of real estate, consumables, and everything else - except for one asset class which generally runs contrary to fiat - gold and silver - and to a certain extent there is one more class which is not determined by fiat and which is actually creating a new economy independent of the stock, bond, fiat triangle - cryptocurrency - i.e. money built on blockchain functions and technology.
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It's interesting, though ultimately perhaps unimportant that the injection of FUD in December began when big finance tried to incorporate bitcoin into the triangle of stocks, bonds, fiat - which, anyone who understands this sector even a little bit can tell you - is a bad fit. Cryptocurrency simply doesn't fit in the current finance model. Why? Three big reasons (straight from Satoshi).

Cryptocurrency is not reliant on trust of intermediaries
Cryptocurrency is not controlled from a central point
Cryptocurrency is not tied to a single fiat currency

There is more, but you get the point (I hope). In any event, the fear, uncertainty and doubt have spread from crypto to the bond and stock markets - we've seen the start of the devaluation of some fiat - specifically dollars. The funny thing is - to ride this out and come out the other side with some measure of wealth - you can either trust in the old standard of gold or you can buy into cryptocurrency. Or, alternatively, you can buy into companies that are 'too big to fail' and watch as they gobble up everything around them. The hard part of course, as it has always been, is figuring out the future. Which cryptocurrencies will succeed, which stocks will succeed, and where will all the so called smart money go? My guess, and it is a guess, is that the smart money goes to support the technology that is building the new cryptoverse (or cryptonet or even cryptotopia - but not this one )- only time will tell if we are all building our own crypt or building a bunker.
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If you missed the first installment of my story - here is the link to it:
A Noobs Guide to Blockchain, Bitcoin, and Cryptocurrency - My Story Part 1
And the second installment
A Noobs Guide to Alt-Coins and Cryptocurrency Speculation - My Story Part 2
And here is the latest installment:
A Noob's Guide to Investing in the Stock Market - My Story Part 3

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