Solar Cycle Prediction Recently Has Been An Abysmal Failure! Real Solar Science Is Explained

in sun •  3 years ago  (edited)

The Sun is stirring from its latest slumber. As sunspots and flares, signs of a new solar cycle, bubble from the Sun’s surface, scientists wonder what this next cycle will look like. The short answer is, probably a lot like the last — that is, the past 11 years of the Sun’s life, since that’s the average length of any given cycle. But the longer story involves a panel of experts that meets once a decade, a fleet of Sun-studying satellites, and dozens of complicated models — all revolving around efforts to understand the mystifying behavior of the star we live with.

NASA scientists study and model the Sun to better understand what it does and why. The Sun has its ups and downs and cycles between them regularly. Roughly every 11 years, at the height of this cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip — on Earth, that’d be like if the North and South Poles swapped places every decade — and the Sun transitions from sluggish to active and stormy. At its quietest, the Sun is at solar minimum; during solar maximum, the Sun blazes with bright flares and solar eruptions.

Solar cycle predictions give a rough idea of what we can expect in terms of space weather, the conditions in space that change much like weather on Earth. Outbursts from the Sun can lead to a range of effects, from ethereal aurora to satellite orbital decay, and disruptions to radio communications or the power grid. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is the U.S. government’s official source for space weather forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts: With accurate predictions, we can prepare. https://go.nasa.gov/3mD3sPe
Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA https://bit.ly/3lmJVWn
New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record https://bit.ly/3A4QAJa
Prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 using machine learning https://bit.ly/3lnNZ8O
Solar Cycle Comparison Chart https://bit.ly/2WAgfIw
Solar Cycle 25 Is Here. NASA, NOAA Scientists Explain https://go.nasa.gov/3zYFgOo
Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations https://bit.ly/37gKFUS
Composite Prediction Graphic https://bit.ly/2VrEIlg

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