Experts estimated the possibility of a direct clash of Russia and USA in Syria

Russian and US relations around the Syrian conflict exacerbated: States broke relations with Russia to resolve the situation in the region, our Foreign Ministry has accused Washington of US willingness to "make a deal with the devil" - that is, terrorists - for the sake of regime change to Damascus. What will the aggravation of Russian-American relations in connection with the Syrian crisis? Is it possible a global conflict, the Third World War, which some say?

Experts estimated the possibility of a direct clash of Russia and USA in Syria Photo: structure.mil.ru
"Now, perhaps, not worth talking about the possibility of the Third World, not to escalate the situation - says the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Leonid Ivashov. - But collisions are quite possible. The Americans and their allies, including Turkey, planning combat operations - including land - directly on the territory of Syria. It is, in particular, the release of Raqqa. Turkish troops will obviously strike, cutting the territory of Syria. And how to act in these circumstances, the Syrian armed forces, Russian VKS - a large and complex issue. So, really, can ignite a major military conflict, the direct participants of which are the United States and Russia. "

"The fears of some experts about the possibility of World War III - an exaggeration - says" MK "a senior fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies Boris Dolgov. - In my opinion, such a prospect is excluded. With regard to the deterioration of relations between the US and Russia over the Syrian crisis, there is, first of all, we should recall that Washington and its allies is a natural continuation of the policy that they spent at the outset. Their purpose - by any means to remove an inconvenient they guide Bashar Assad.

Now, when Syrian troops operate very successfully in Aleppo, which has strategic importance, the West is trying by all means to stop the attack, keeping the armed Islamist groups operating against the Syrian leadership. We see - as soon as the Syrian army begins to gain victories, immediately start talking about the cessation of hostilities, the humanitarian convoys and so on. ".

"There is no Third World War, of course, will not be - sure as director of the Center for Middle East and Central Asia Semen Bagdasarov. - But the fact that the collision Russia and the United States on the Syrian theater of operations will take place not only indirectly, but directly - quite likely. When we fought in Korea, there was a significant worsening was shot down a large number of American planes; in Vietnam in general have brought down eight thousand. But in any World War II action in these theaters of war are not poured out. "

• I do not think that in the current conditions it is possible escalation of the Syrian conflict in the Third World War, - says head of the Center for Military Forecasting Anatoly Tsyganok - Of course, there is confrontation and political line, and economic, but global war is still very far ...

At the same time it is clear that Washington claimed the termination of the Russian-American cooperation on the Syrian settlement not only postpones the prospects for achieving at least some peace to the war-torn country, but also creates new threats. "

"The United States accused Russian VKS and the Syrian army in violation of the agreements between Washington and Moscow, in violation of the Geneva agreements - is an excuse for the Americans to withdraw from cooperation, - says Boris Dolgov. - But for some drastic measures the United States are unlikely. I mean, the "plan B", which was mentioned earlier, suggesting US military intervention in the event of the failure of the political settlement of the Syrian crisis.

But I do not rule out that the part of Washington and its allies can supply air defense systems of the radical Islamist groups - of course, no direct and veiled. We have already seen how to shoot down Russian helicopters at a height inaccessible to the currently held by the militants of air defense systems. But I do not think that will be a sharp aggravation of the situation. Direct collision of Russian and US armed forces, I think, will not happen. "

"The United States will continue to do the same thing that they have done in the past - believes Semen Bagdasarov - but are likely to increase the number of military equipment supplied by the so-called opposition. In addition, now in Syria is a significant contingent of several hundred US soldiers, about five thousand NATO troops, not counting Turkey, which prepare the opposition fighters. Therefore, weapons supply, training - all this will continue, and possibly lead to a direct confrontation. "

Our experts believe that Washington will try to put pressure on Russia because of the situation in Syria. "Pressure will continue: and diplomatic, and possibly sanctions, and winding up in other areas, - predicts Boris Dolgov. - But it is important to remember that the current US administration - leaving. And I think in the near future, during the US presidential elections, the radical steps Washington will not take. "

"Of course, the pressure will be, - says Semyon Bagdasarov. - Obviously, in the form of sanctions - primarily economic. Their possible character to me as an economist is not difficult to judge. "

• US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter as recently as a week ago, said the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons. Let us ask, against whom? This is also for the Russian nuclear blackmail - like Leonid Ivashov. - Of course, do not forget about the sanctions. The pressure that we are already seeing, will increase. And not only in the Middle East, but in our western strategic direction, in the south-west. This also should be added and the decision of US congressmen to supply lethal weapons Ukraine. I think the Americans not soon abandon this anti-Russian policies. "

Renat Abdullin

EXPERT OPINION

Recently, White House spokesman Josh Ernest said that the US administration is studying sanctions against Moscow, among other options reaction to recent actions of Russia in Syria (in particular, in connection with the situation around the city of Aleppo). What are the "Syrian sanctions" could threaten the Russian Federation from Washington?

Paul Segal, first vice-president "supports Russia":

"The US does not have much capacity to come up with any new restrictions against Russia. Most likely, they will simply be extended in respect of individuals and individual companies. In theory, it was effective to switch the mode of oil and gas embargo, but Russia hardly sells oil to the United States and Europe will not give up our purchases of hydrocarbons, since it is not able to replace the shortfall in volumes. In addition, Europe's increasingly heard statements on the necessity of lifting the sanctions, so a definitive step the EU is not solved. And this unilateral decision is meaningless for the United States.

Most likely, we will see just the expansion of the sanctions list in the "daughter" of the companies that are already in it. The United States also may further complicate the attempt to enter the international financial market, although the Western market is already closed to Russia. And the impact on, for example, China, America can not.

Currently, any strengthening of sanctions will be ineffective and Russia is not dangerous. "

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