What the Industrial Revolution Really Tells Us About the Future of Automation and Work

An interesting article from Moshe Y. Vardi that gives another view of the future of automation. I found it a bit sad, but relevant. Follows a short resume.

Automation and Artificial Intelligence improve in a drastic way: if millions of people no longer have jobs what will they do ?

Many say that there is nothing to worry about: when technology destroys jobs, new jobs will be created.

However the question is when ?

If you look at the Industrial Revolution it involved Communist revolutions, World War I, and it was stabilized only until World War II, nearly after 200 years of chaos.

Are we reaching a tipping point ?

Automation and Artificial Intelligence enables higher productivity and profitability.

Previously we assumed for instance that offshore outsourcing for IT was not an issue, that was proven wrong. Similarly, the globalization and the automation on the economy is vastly underestimated.

Manufacturing

US manufacturing productivity roughly doubled between 1995 and 2015: it is today at an all-time high while employment declined a lot since 1995 and worker wages are more or less to the level of 1970 inflation adjusted.

Also such automation is taking place in developing world too with the same consequences on stagnation of wages.

Towards intellectual jobs

Accountants, lawyers, construction works, teachers whose jobs did not change since decades will be taken over by automation/computers. Our economy and society will transform in significant ways, that may be painful and enduring for many people's lives.

Source:

https://cacm.acm.org/news/220768-what-the-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-the-future-of-automation-and-work/fulltext

In an even darker tone, there is this book that is worth to read: https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Robots-Technology-Threat-Jobless/dp/0465097537