Tourism in Morocco in fifteen last years

1- It acts of the average annual rate of increase calculated with a geometric mean.
2-Le table 1 shows the rates of increase annual moyen1pour “the international tourists in stay” per five year old blocks, of 1998 to 2002. The growth of the tourists, on the whole of the period, was only of 0,8%. From 1988 to 1992, the annual growth was remarkably strong (with 13,1%). This strong period was followed of a bending very accentuated in the years 1993-1997 (an annual fall of – 11,3%). Lastly, the more recent period, of 1998 to 2002, knows a modest growth of 2,6% annually. These data show that Moroccan tourism industry is touched hard by cycles of short periods which harm its development largely. These cycles depend, at the same time, of political and economic factors; as Mimoun Hillali announces it: “Tourism, vital sector for Morocco and Tunisia, did not recover from the one decade consequences of economic shocks and military conflicts which shook (and continue besides to do it) the Arab countries, in particular, and the world in general. ” (Hillali, 2004: 38) Table 1 – annual rates of increase average (geometric mean) in the “international tourists of stay” in Morocco, by five year old blocks, 1988 to 2002 Années Taux of average annual increase 1988-1992 13,1% 1993-1997 -11,3% 1998-2002 2,65% 1988-2002 0,8% Source: Our calculations starting from the data of the ministry for Tourism, Kingdom of Morocco. The nights with Marrakech 3Marrakech is the most beautiful floret of the Moroccan imperial cities; with it only, Marrakech counts for one the third of the nights of the worldwide; it is a microcosm which makes it possible to analyze the situation of tourism. Five European countries constitute the principal customers of tourism, at the same time for “the international tourists of stay” and for the nights with the hotel. These five countries, France, Spain, England, Germany and Italy, account for 68% of the whole of the foreign tourist customers. 4Le table 2 shows the annual rates of increase average in the nights to Marrakech for these five countries, over the period 1999-2003. The growth of the nights of the French tourists is weak (1% per year); one notes a very strong fall of the nights of the Spanish tourists (- 18,2%), German (- 27,5%) and Italian (- 16,9%); only the English tourists represent customers in true growth (7,6%). 2 We point out that the total of the nights is formed by the five principal countries named higher. 5Les shares of marché2de these various customers evolved much in the ten last years: in 1993, the French tourists accounted for 59% of the nights; this percentage passed to 73% in 1999 and 83% in 2003. Marrakech, this jewel of the Kingdom, became a true tourist attraction for the French elites of the mass media, the entertainment world and even of the tenors of the policy. The industry of tourism with Marrakech is increasingly dependent on the arrival of the French tourists. Table 2 – annual rates of increase average (geometric mean) in the nights with Marrakech, 1999 to 2003 Countries average annual Rate of increase France 1% Spain -18,2% England 7,6% Germany -27,5% Italy -16,9% Source: Our calculations starting from the data of the ministry for Tourism, Kingdom of Morocco. The effects of the two wars of the Gulf 6Dans this part, we will treat effects on Moroccan tourism of the two wars of the Gulf. The effects on “the international tourists of stay” 3 the first war of the Gulf – the war of Kuwait – was started on January 16th, 1991. 4 the second war of the Gulf – the war in Iraq – was started on March 20th, 2003. 7Le table 3 shows the annual rates of increase average for the period 1991/19903et the annual rates of increase average over the period 2003/20024. We can note that, for certain countries, the tourist behaviors differ in an important way between the two periods of war. At the time of the first war of the Gulf, in 1991, the fall of the arrivals of the tourists was very strong in all the studied countries. In 2003, the situation is quite different: the arrivals of the French tourists increase by 3,1%, those of the Spanish tourists of 11.2%; the fall of the entries of the English tourists is much weaker in 2003, on the other hand the decrease of the arrivals of the tourists German and Italian remains rather important at the time of the second war of the Gulf. Table 3 – annual rates of increase average (geometric mean) in the “international tourists of stay” in Morocco, over the period 1991/1990 and 2003/2002 Countries Rate of increase annual average 1e war in the Gulf (Kuwait) 1990/1991 Rates of increase annual average 2nd war in the Gulf (Iraq) 2003/2002 France -35,7% 3,1% Spain -8,3% 11,2% England -34,6% -4.8% Germany -32,7% -26,8% Italy -16% -13,1% Source: Our calculations starting from the data of the ministry for Tourism, Kingdom of Morocco. The effects on the nights with Marrakech 8Nous let us note in Marrakech (see table 4) a less dramatic fall of the nights in 2003 (compared to 1991); in the case of France, the decrease is worthless whereas it was of -60% in 1991; at the English tourists, there is even a growth of the nights of 2,2%. The nights of the Spanish tourists know a fall of 10.4% in 2003 (the fall was of -21,1% in 1991). At the tourists coming from Germany and of Italy, the decrease of the nights with Marrakech in 2003 remains rather strong. Table 4 – annual rates of increase average (geometric mean) in the nights with Marrakech, over the period 1991/1990 and 2003/2002 Countries Rate of increase annual average 1e war in the Gulf (Kuwait) 1990/1991 Rates of increase annual average 2nd war in the Gulf (Iraq) 2003/2002 France - 60,5% 0.0% Spain -21,1% -10.4% England -65,6% 2.2% Germany -47,1% -39.7% Italy -32,2% -21.4% Source: : Our calculations starting from the data of the ministry for Tourism, Kingdom of Morocco. The lessons of the past 9L' Moroccan tourism industry is touched by strong fluctuations; these fluctuations are caused by internal and external causes: the low profitability and problems of financing in the sector of hotel trade, the constraints exerted by competition inter main road, the economic and world politics disorders. It is also necessary to underline the strong dependence of Moroccan tourism opposite five large European countries. Lastly, a good news, it seems to have there a certain attenuation of the political risk associated with the Moroccan destination for the French, English and Spanish tourists; the tourists coming from Germany and of Italy remain sensitive vis-a-vis this phenomenon.