STEEM/SBD/XMR ::Trade Ideas :: August 23rd

in trading •  8 years ago 

XMR - Monero

XMR is up 100% today. I haven't seen so much FOMO since the days of the STEEM pump. I think this rally is baseless, and should correct violently to the downside.

Position: SHORT (red arrows on the chart)

SBD - Steem Dollars

Steem dollar is increasing its discount again, currently trading at $0.88 USD implied. I am picking some up, with more orders on the books awaiting lower prices.
SBD is a good asset (technically debt token) to hold, due to its 10% APR interest and discount against a convertibility guarantee (backed by STEEM). It also helps me reduce my BTC exposure.

Position: LONG (green arros on the chart)

STEEM

This is a tricky one. Looking at the market structure alone, we are in a no-man zone. If we break below historic highs (vertical blue lines on the chart), we could find ourselves in a very long consolidation period. Currently STEEM is being printed at a rate of ~100,000 STEEM per day, and the whales seem to be powering down and cashing out.
This is why I am only buying small amounts on the dips, and cautiously waiting for a reversal (that needs to be backed by fundamentals, such as real userbase growth and positive investor cashflow).

We might see a small bounce in the short term, if the blue line retest holds. Tight SL recommended.

Position: Neutral


I am not your financial advisor and this post is not an investment or trading advice. The above post merely represents my opinions, which could be factually wrong. Please conduct your own due diligence before investing.


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I thought to add a comment in regards to whales powering down. I think the re-distribution of tokens is a good thing, and I am very grateful for it. I am looking forward to buying into STEEM and powering up, as the price finds support.

How can you tell if there is positive investor cash flow? What do you look for. I gave you a nice up vote ;-)

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

All the transactions on the blockchain are public. It is easy to see if STEEM is leaving the platform, and flowing into the 3rd party exchanges, or if STEEM is leaving exchanges and being powered UP.

I think long term its going to work so I have been constantly powering up as the price has been falling. I bought my first SP back in June before the first payout. If only I would have put more in then....LOL! My first $1000 did a 17x when Steem was at $5. Looking at Steemd.com looks like we are up to 80,000 users by end of Aug. Is there a steemtool.com you like to look at to see the money flow?

I made my own tool in Python. Also, the 80k users are not all real. A lot of it is bots and name-squatting.

I do adhere to the same philosophy, my plan it to just DCA into STEEM and power up.

@lukestokes has published a report that shows historic flows.

I see. Now 90% of that 100,000 new Steem per day goes back to Steem Power holders? Right? And the more Steem you have the more you can earn in curation. Although, this new type of economic system is not proven yet, it looks sustainable if the system is constantly adding more and more active users. Just today I a saw several first time post in Introduce yourself earning $800 - $1200. I suspect most of these people will cash out there SD and immediately start to power down b/c most people are not investors. For the long term it seems that big spike in price in July was the first of many more to come if we see the growth of the platform. Bitcoin went through many of these runs and so has Ethereum. From a content writers stand point, there's nothing to lose with zero barrier to entry. Great payouts are happening to attract more and more writers.

Actually I've no idea how much steem gets created daily. Miner rewards are a flat 28,800 STEEM a day, and the rewards pool is at 116,000 STEEM.

Unfortunately, I dont know how much of that is given to whom, in what proportions.

I think it really needs to be noted that a lot of the whales just made the first "big money" of their lives. Any financial advisor would advise them to power down.

PLUS

What you mention about re-distributing tokens.

True. I think its smart for them to power down some and enjoy the rewards. However, if Steem reaches its full potential that $1-$3 million some of the whales have could turn into a 100's of million later on if the platform gets great and really takes off. FB, Reddit or Medium pays nothing. For its a no brainer to be on here even if it only means making a couple $1000 a year. The other social platforms paid 0.

1.) You can power down just a % of your VESTS by clicking on 'Advanced' button and lowering the amount.
2.) I think powering down is the only rational choice whales have. If they don't power down, they run against 2 risks: a.) It doesn't work out. Startups fail. Something blows up. 100% loss. b.) Other whales power down, and bring the price down. You lose as individual.

  1. Very interesting! Was not aware of that .. thank you!
  2. Agreed... I suppose that's partly why I ask about 'incentives to remain powered up' specifically. The entire platform is built around incentives, it seems that if there was an incentive balanced with the incentives of powering down (liquid payouts each week), it would act as strong price support (which also helps out the ecosystem if people are paid more for their content.

I can't wrap my brain around this one lack of incentive.

There is an incentive to stay powered up, and that is the ability to earn curation rewards. Unfortunately, its not a given. One needs to be the best curator to earn the rewards, as only 20 posts or so make it every day.

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

Looks like about half the whales are powering down (not @Dan or @Ned). One thing I do like about the SP being locked up for 2 years is that there's no panic selling, whereas you can only sell 1% per week. This can allow the platform to align for longterm growth and development.

Are you sure monero pump is baseless? It was added to one of dark markets as a currency today (seen that on reddit).

The feature is legit, and I have been looking to invest in XMR for 2 weeks now. 100% pump however is baseless. Massive over-reaction imo. I'm not saying we won't see these high prices again in the future however.

I've noticed the crazy rally on Monero. Lucky to have gotten some months back and now thinking of selling some haha.

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

You've made a nice, easy profit. If you sell some, you get to have 'free' free coins.

Ooo violent correction is right..

A reshort opportunity might present itself it if tries pumping again for double top.

right again, going up once again, dead cat bounce perhaps

Hi Furion, didn't know where to contact you so i'll just write you here, i would consider selling my 1000SP + account, plus another account with a couple of hundred SP, would you be interested you can message me on bitcoin talk, (renk) thank you

Im on steemit.chat as furion