WARNING: This might not be a trend!

honarparvar (72) in trading • 5 years ago

In the Technical and Chart Analysis, the most important step, which is sometime referred as your best friend, is spotting a TREND.

So once you find and confirm an up or down trend, things become easier for you. I am going to tell you a very simple and basic point, which is very vital and important in spotting the next trend you may wanna spot in a chart.

A trend is confirmed since no correction bigger than 38% of the previous move is seen. Whether a down or up trend, if a next move in the opposite direction measures bigger than 38% of the previous wave, you should doubt a trend has formed in that direction.

1241853501-1906c7589844120b027e24bc02d3e17e9540bf7bb664fe067640240de468c8c4.png

this is a sample, for an uptrend. as you see, corrections are smaller than 38%

1241853501-6692a1e2c00426058510f73cf876f1a28198507abc0924747d0dda232d62ec11.png

and this is a sample, which shows a strong wave, follows by a strong opposite direction wave, which questions the previous rise was beginning of an uptrend.

I hope this small issue helps you better in future analyzing the charts :)

I also have posted this on my Publish account.

trading cryptocurrency analysis palnet steemleo

5 years ago by honarparvar (72)

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fucho80 (71) · 5 years ago

Amazing friend @honarparvar, very illustrated and well explained this lesson. Very useful to understand the crypto market.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks buddy, you are welcome

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lanzjoseg (74) · 5 years ago

Hi @honarparvar

I believe in this analysis as well as in this frace of yours.

Rise was beginning of an uptrend.

I believe that the market will rise again, there are many factors that can generate these changes, but the main one is stability, if investors see a good financial panorama where they can win.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

maybe I'm missing something, i wasn't talking about any specific market at the moment

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ookamisuuhaisha (57) · 5 years ago

Nope, it wasn't you who missed something :)

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juanmolina (68) · 5 years ago

Howdy dear @honarparvar.

I have always felt rejection towards the graphics. I don't like them because I don't understand them.
But with this very basic explanation and the support of the images you have managed to arouse my interest.
Thanks for this basic clip. I hope new ones come.

Your friend, Juan.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks buddy 🙏🏼 i will keep posting

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guruvaj (57) · 5 years ago

With so many people getting interested with cryptos, it is best to have some basic understanding about chart analysis.
It might not be enough to be a crypto traded but will shape our opinion in a right way in terms of up and down movements of crypto prices.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

sure, thanks for your comment
check this website: www.babypips.com

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guruvaj (57) · 5 years ago

Welcome 🤝

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crypto.piotr (70) · 5 years ago

Morning @honarparvar

Great read. It's surely difficult to spot the trend. Especially it must be very hard to figure out when trend is changing it's direction. Right?

However I'm not the biggest fan of TA. I think that we should only rely on results of it whenever market we're dealing with is fully matured and regulated.

Crypto isn't regulated. Crypto market isn't matured. Not to mention lack of liquidity and tons of uncontrolled "bad actors" still using this technology for their own purposes.

ps. why 38%?

Yours
Piotr

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cata22 (47) · 5 years ago

I am not sure how to understand TA ... I am trying to learn more about it, but What I believe more in is fundamentals

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ookamisuuhaisha (57) · 5 years ago

Ratios of 38,2% and 61,8% are related to Fibonacci series and "golden ratio". Many processes naturally tend to follow the golden ratio. Human perception is somewhat skewed to consider it "natural". Here in terms of market changes, you could consider these levels as general-opinion "low risk" and "high risk" market reaction levels, just because there are people on the other side of the gambling table. Other people also look at charts and numbers, and other people as a group, tend to act according to golden ratio as well. Before 38% there's low chance of panic and change in trend, after 62% there's much higher chance. Of course, on the market any thing can happen, and it is NOT a rule to follow, it's just some estimation or guideline to keep in mind.

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crypto.piotr (70) · 5 years ago

Late thank you for your valuable comment @ookamisuuhaisha

Appreciate it a lot.
Yours, Piotr

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cloudblade (69) · 5 years ago

The premise is....
Did not touch the whale / did not encounter political persecution / did not encounter economic struggle / etc.
!trdo

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trendotoken (59) · 5 years ago

Congratulations @cloudblade, you are successfuly trended the post that shared by @honarparvar!
@honarparvar got 6 TRDO & @cloudblade got 4 TRDO!

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singhisking1 (9) · 5 years ago

A nice and decent post .Easy to read and understand.Great content.All the best for your superb blogging and life.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks my friend 🙏🏼

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intellihandling (63) · 5 years ago

Dear @homarparvar, our friend @juanmolina send me your post link and so i am looking and comment it.
Please do not mind but your theory is not confirm for our coin value, we started from 8 usd and now we are at 0,16, if you would not love this place you will not say it is a scam?

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

sorry this is completely irrelevant to my post, but np.

STEEM blockchain is not a scam, I believe. but steemit has poisoned with many negative activities and attitudes... I admit

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worldfinances (61) · 5 years ago

You did not even start with real analysis. But all those graphs were valid BEFORE stock markets were 100% rigged. Today, you are better of if you know how to set the right "quants", like aggregation, interval, darvas/pivot points, pps, fishertransform,....and many more

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

a perfectionist? :) you are right, i just opened a window to a wide sight, i hope this helps someone in the middle of his/her journey. it's not a "how to learn to trade in 24 hours" post

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worldfinances (61) · 5 years ago

:) yeah sure. Well, you can not learn how to trade in 24 hours. More like... 6 months. If you are a stocks/index/options trader, you have to be perfectionist. And you have to know what's going on in politics - who is lying, who doesn't... Or you lose money.

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thetimetravelerz (66) · 5 years ago

Hello @honarparvar a very interesting approach and simple too. I was wondering if there is a simple way like this to learn technical analysis.
If you post I would surely learn as a eager student.
Just one Qs: How did you arrive at the 38% figure?

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

hi thanks for your kind comment.
for knowing more about the math behind 38% I recommend you to study Fibonacci numbers and fibo retracement

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rufusfirefly (61) · 5 years ago

How does your model compare to an ARIMA model with interventions?

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago (edited)

ARIMA is based on moving averages, this is based on fibo retracement levels, and no regression here.

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rufusfirefly (61) · 5 years ago

ARIMA is more complex than that; it's a truly statistical methodology. What does "fibo replacement" mean and how does it relate to price movements?

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

read about fibo ret. here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp

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nachomolina (68) · 5 years ago

This information is useful! either, that we are trying to figure out how to buy or sell our encryption effectively or when we use an exchange, for example @steem-engine, we will always find this type of graphics somewhere.
They contain the information necessary to better understand cryptography, and I think we should devote some of our time to learning the correct way to interpret them.

I will be attentive to a part II about this same topic, thanks for sharing!

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks for reading and kind comment. i will keep posting on this topic

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akdx (66) · 5 years ago

I think it is impossible to predict the trend exactly as nothing is permanent and pre-planned in this world. However, some speculations may be made according to the trend analysis which may serve our purpose.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

i don't challenge your idea; thanks for reading and comment 🙏🏼

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davidesimoncini (71) · 5 years ago

Good basic content. Perhaps in the crypto ecosystem it's more difficult to know when the market changes trend, especially in the short term. In the medium or long-term it becomes more truthful even if being a young market such this still entails a greater risk.

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machnbirdsparo (65) · 5 years ago

Don't forget where most of our financial words come from. All crypto has is FUD and FOMO. Wouldn't it be something for crypto to teach the world what a truly free market is all about...

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

yes, endless sprints of fud & fomo

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parth7878 (50) · 5 years ago

Well, by reading your topic I got one thing in my mind, that is bitcoin graph, in 26th Oct around 8:26 am or pm price were suddenly went to $10600 then serious fall back to under $9000.
That exactly the same you mentioned in your last graph. Moreover, if you ask me to do trading with automatic software?

Well, I won't recommend it personally. Because human mind won't easily setisfied without hard work. Consequently, they took more risk ,hance they get major loss, exceptionally case.

Therefore, it's more pleasurable if someone can do trading their own rather than depending on any automatic bots.

Although , new trading bots will give you better algorithm for profit. But nothing can compare to human mind as the most greedyest mind in the world. 😂😅 . Hope you are doing well my friend. And heartly good luck for future.

I just shared what is my opinion. It's varied person to person.

Cheers.
Parth.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks buddy. i appreciate your comment and time. i don't encourage anyone on anything! I just hope someone benefit from something I know, so I share it...

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maciejficek (55) · 5 years ago

I believe that Your idea is quite right, but in some areas it can be <38% and iin some areas more. It probably depends, but in general I find that post worthy.

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

thanks buddy, nothing is absolute. you are right

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fintechandcrypto (44) · 5 years ago

Very interesting.
Are these conclusions confirmed by statistics?
Which one?

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honarparvar (72) · 5 years ago

this is a good question; maybe I have to put such info in a different post... thanks for asking

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