The index managed to rebound in the trading session last weekend, amid positive sentiment that was still minimal. JCI valuation was recorded at 12.1x, and the market will wait for macro sentiment at the beginning of next week, for example export-import. On Friday (12/10), the JCI closed up 0.94% at 5,756.
Some sectors that contributed to the increase in the JCI were:
Infrastructure: + 2.06%
Finance: + 1.69%
Aneka Industri: + 1.63%
Macro View
The trade balance in September 2018 is predicted to have a deficit of USD600 million. The reason is the high import of fuel oil (BBM). The projection is thinner than the condition of the trade balance in August 2018 which was a deficit of USD1.02 billion. The cause of the deficit in August was the value of exports which decreased by 2.9% from the previous month.
Comment: Strengthening Despite Positive Sentiment Limited
Today there will be a release of Indonesia's macroeconomic data (export-import). The data is expected to be -0.7 billion dollars, improving from the previous period's data of -2.01 billion dollars. If the export-import figures are appropriate or even above market expectations, the index will have an opportunity to increase. Moreover, the index is also supported by the Bargain Hunting action which will continue in the short term. Last week's LQ-45 shares were also heavily depressed.
Technical
The index managed to rebound, but generally still below the MA5 line. Buy volume seems to increase by testing the support level above MA5. RSI (29.6%> 39%). Index pressure made JCI in the lower band Bollinger Bands with relatively wide volatility.
JCI Range: 5,710 - 5,800
Prediction: Bullish.
Potential Shares
- EXCL (XL Axiata)
After being at the lower MA200 support, the price managed to rebound, then traded again in the MA5. Currently, the position ma5> ma200. MACD has the potential of Golden Cross, with a range of 49.8% RSI or flat.
Action: Hold
TP: 2,800 and 2,870
Support: 2,680
Cutloss: 2,660
Area Buy: 2,680-2,700
BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia)
Prices rebound and try to close the daily gap in the range 2,950-3,000. The buying volume is visible again, and in book value, BBRI is cheap enough. The MA5 is below the MA20 and MA50. Prices are currently in the lower band by Bollinger Bands.
Action: Buy
TP: 2,990 and 3,020
Support: 2,900
Cutloss: 2,870
Area Buy: 2,910-2,920
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