Dear Diary,
The Tron occupation continues. @huobi-withdrawal and @binance-hot have started a powerdown, but Binance has botched their position once again by only powering down 16k coins. I have to assume... well hold on a sec.
16k Steem coin powerdown on Binance.
So... 2000 times 16k = 32M, which is exactly how many coins Binance powered up. Binance has just powered down 32M Vests instead of 32M coins. WTF is wrong with them? They obviously aren't using a front-end to post these transactions to the chain. I guess that makes sense considering security issues.
Perhaps they are still stalling, or perhaps this is an honest mistake.
Obviously, they have no experience with powering up/down like this directly interacting with RPC nodes or however the F they are doing it. On one hand, it seems like a plausible mistake. On the other hand, it seems like a plausible mistake, meaning now they have a reason to be like "oops" and stall even longer.
We really have to consider how security works on these exchange hot wallets. Simple operations like powering down are probably not as trivial as we think they should be.
They could be signing/testing these transactions on local machines with an airgap before they broadcast the public transaction to the network. We don't know how their corporate security works. Keep the pressure on.
@aggroed led townhall
This most recent townhall meeting was the most deflated one yet. Aggroed was extremely sleep deprived and a bit depressed that he got bumped off the top 20 witness list. He even gave one of Justin Sun's accounts 1000SP as a peace offering, which I thought was interesting. It was a very casual affair where everyone was allowed to speak. I thought about talking but didn't really have anything super important to say. I'm a pretty introverted person and have quite the aversion to big groups and being social.
The sockpuppet accounts continue to make slight gains in terms of support on the network. It would take around 8.6M coins for Tron to regain the super majority, while it would take the real witnesses around 8 million coins to do the same. Essentially both sides need the same amount of support to override the other; a quite interesting balance indeed.
However,
I've been talking about forks a bit, but the realization of such a thing is starting to hit me. My original understanding of the situation was that if we retook super majority the soft fork would be implemented and Steemit Inc's stake would be immediately re-frozen.
This is not the case. If we regain super-majority, the softfork will be implemented, but it actually doesn't do anything. The softfork can only deny operations from being made, not take them away. Because the operations to vote in the sockpuppets has already been made, it makes no difference if the witnesses are blocking that operation from happening; it's already happened and can't be undone without the correct private keys or a hardfork.
Hardfork.
The Steem community does not have the developers to make a hardfork happen. If we retake the super majority, nothing will happen. It's becoming apparent to me that the only entity that can likely create such a hardfork is @blocktrades, which is good and bad.
The good news.
@blocktrades is the only team that can create a hardfork at the moment. The witnesses are exhausted and blockchain development isn't exactly their main squeeze anyway. This means that if Sun bricks the chain or successfully pushes a hardfork without community consensus, if @blocktrades pushes a sister fork that will likely be the only other option besides Sun's disaster of a blockchain. If Sun pushes that hardfork, that version of the code is no longer the Steem blockchain in my eyes and many others.
The bad news.
@blocktrades controls the narrative here. Whatever they decide to do in a sister fork will likely go uncontested. They could even hide some sneaky code in there that no one finds out about for years. Who knows. It's not like we have the resources to do code review. It's a matter of trust. In a truestless network, this is obviously not ideal.
Conclusion
The sister chain will be so much work that it's definitely worth sticking around on the main chain to the bitter end. That bitter end will be marked by Sun pushing a ill-conceived hardfork that either bricks the chain outright or breaks our economy and trust in the network.
"Unexpected" Bitcoin Dump is best buying opportunity we're going to get in a while.
Like Cockwork
This dump in the market is epic. I'm amazed at my prediction abilities. Literally every time I say the price of the market is going to go up, it dumps. The reverse correlation is legendary. I'm hearing that stocks and everything else is dumping as well, which would explain things.
Not to worry, once the weak hands get flushed out we should be on the rise once again. The market is almost fully bottomed out. Bitcoin will not dip under $7500; to do so would be defying a 7 year history of doubling every year. This is the only prediction I've made that seems to come true consistently.
Honestly this dump reminds me of the time Bitcoin flash crashed to $7500 and then spiked up to 10.5k. Remember that? When the prime minister of China said we should embrace blockchain?
Don't be surprised if this happens, but also don't be surprised if it doesn't. Still, I will be very surprised if Bitcoin's halving event doesn't get the pump/dump I've been expecting. I will also be FLOORED if Bitcoin dips below $7500.
Again, I am making no bets on these half-baked predictions. Most of my investment is locked up defending Steem from the Chinese invaders. Steem on!
Not sure we concur on that point. My guess is that Tim Cliff, for one, has been catching up on his sleep. 😎
You don't have to be a witness to review code for malicious additions. Just running a diff on the new code against the older version will highlight the changes.
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Haha you got me. Yeah after I wrote that I was like... ehhhh that's a little paranoid and not accurate. The amount of code needed to change for the fork is very small. It's the testing of the code that's the big deal.
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We could be witnessing the beginning of a "black swan" event in the world financial markets with stocks going down a big bunch and crude oil falling through the floor...
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Quite right. Many people think Bitcoin will fall with everything else. I think it will bounce off the doubling line as always, and when people see that tons of money will move to the "safe haven assets".
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Ok, hopefully Justin comes to his senses and stands down on the witness voting tonight. Le sigh, this is nuts. ❤🙏💦
Posted via Steemleo
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It's Binance is trying to convince us they're incompetent and we should use another exchange...
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Binance knows ppl from steem are poor :D
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Bitcoin is going down because dominoes in the actual market are beginning to fall into each other. Bitcoin could have a lower floor because it's never been through a true recession / depression before. Short term I see everything going now as investors are scared and trust their fiat (for now). Once things stabilize a little, I expect reversal in cryptos.
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That very well could be the case. I hold a different view. I think Bitcoin will do quite well. The corruption that causes these financial collapses is why Bitcoin exists in the first place.
Bitcoin will bounce off the doubling line like it always does, and when that happens, if the stock market is still boned a lot of that money will simply flow into Bitcoin. I expect to hear the phrase "safe haven" about 10000 more times before this recession is over.
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We'll see... we're pretty close to $7500 as is. If people are scared enough, technicals and fundamentals stop mattering. I'm long on Bitcoin, I see this downturn as opportunity, but most people don't think that way.
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I think there are deep deep pockets that will never let the price fall below the doubling line no matter what. Doesn't matter how bad the economy is doing; Bitcoin is easy to prop up because the market cap is so low.
If stocks continue to bomb and Bitcoin is bouncing off the doubling line this will create a mass exodus from stocks to Bitcoin and we'll get one of those x20 spikes again that fucks everything up for a year.
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Cockwork
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kek
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the bitcoin dump is already happening and bitcoin have dropped massively to $7700 i guess this might be the best time to buy or we should wait a bit longer to see if the dumping will continue??anyways great analysis from you @edicted
Posted via Steemleo
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Yes, If Bitcoin crashes significantly under $7500 I would be very worried. Like, say if Bitcoin was sub $7000 for over 3 days. That would essentially break how consistent this doubling model has been over the last 7 years.
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2020 Bitcoin baseline values.
Yeah honestly I would say buy now... It's exactly between that $7467 and $8000 level... and we are right in the middle of the month. We are at the doubling line right now. Exciting to watch it bounce off once again.
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To support your work, I also upvoted your post!
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It looks like the real power down has begun:
https://steemd.com/tx/ee3b5bd1f75c5f04447c4c91690195ec2bc5af2c
Unless this is yet another ploy. 😅
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Haha. I hardly think that Blocktrades would act like a dipshit after all this transpired.
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same. im just pointing out we have very few paths forward
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Atm, we wait for the Koreans to say what they have to. They have 15M vests that is the tie breaker.
If theyre stupid there will be a fork.
Not sure how the fork would work.. If Justin does it and reduces his powerdown time to 1 day (or instantly) so he can dump... Who is it that is on the original chain that exchanges accept? Wouldnt we be the ones now that exchanges wont take his word on the "upgrade to chain" stupidity.
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theres so much political intrigue going on it's hard to see how it will turn out. it does seem like if the koreans side with us nothing will happen because we dont have a HF ready to push. sun will continue to control the ninja mine regardless... well... at least his witness votes wont disappear and the threat of him retaking the chain is high.
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If koreans side with us we retake control. All 20 witnesses would be community and we can easily reinstate the SF, force him to negotiate, force him to give up voting rights. etc.
There would be no need for a HF
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reinstating the softfork and freezing his account doesnt take the votes away from the sock puppet witnesses.
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You sure?? So you cant implement decline voting rights as long as he is voting?
hmm. So he would have to remove his votes on his own?
But if the koreans side with us we get supermajority and he no longer controls the chain.
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you cant change the chain with a soft fork. you can only deny transactions from being processed, in this case. it's been made very clear by crimsonclad.
the decline voting rights operation requires a private key and lasts one month i think.
if we get super majority back we are still vulnerable to exchanges, him buying stake, or big players switching sides again. without a hardfork freezing his account we are still majorly exposed.
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