His polarizing nature will make any trial a challenge. I want to make clear that I am not making a partisan point. But it is clear that there is a good chunk of Americans who love Trump and will support him no matter what he does. Let’s call them group A. There is another big, perhaps bigger chuck of Americans who hate Trump and can never see anything he does as good. Let’s call them group B. The existence of these two groups will make putting him on trial very difficult.
Take the New York case. That is a garbage case if I ever saw one. I have my doubts that it will ever get to trial. But if it does get to trial will Trump be acquitted? If we get a couple of people from group B on the jury they will likely hang the jury rather than let Trump be found not guilty. No matter how flimsily the case they will probably feel it their duty to make certain that the threat of Trump is neutralized. Thus, they will not serve the interest of justice but allow their hatred of Trump to determine their verdict. In this case, as long as a couple of people from group B make it through to the final jury acquittal is not possible.
On the other hand, the case of classified documents seems very strong to me. So if it is that strong when it gets to trial then we should see a conviction. But if you have a couple of people from group A you won’t. No matter how strong the evidence is against Trump, they will see the case as a witch hunt. They will feel a responsibility to fight for jury nullification and never vote to convict. Trump said he could shoot someone, and some people will still support him. I think he is right. If a couple of people from group A get through to the jury, then he cannot be convicted.
Now it is possible that the lawyers will be able to screen out people from groups A or B but it will be very difficult. Trump is such a polarizing figure; I am not certain how large the percentage of people out there who would fairly weigh the data and can either convict or acquit based on the evidence. (I think I could but do not tell anyone. I do not want that job.) What this means is that it is going to be very difficult for Trump to get a clean acquittal or conviction. Those who think that once we get these cases to trial that we will get a clean verdict had better hold on to that belief with a great deal of caution.