On Saturday, during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was attacked. The incident, classified by the FBI as an assassination attempt, has caused significant concern in financial markets. Despite sustaining an ear injury, Trump's campaign team reported that the former president is in good spirits and did not suffer any serious injuries.
According to Quincy Krosby, any geopolitical event that triggers anxiety or fear always increases the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Treasury bonds. She notes that the dollar, weakened by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, might strengthen if trading in safe assets intensifies. Meanwhile, the stock market could open significantly lower, which may require the Fed to intervene to ensure liquidity. Krosby considers this scenario unlikely but still possible.
Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Capital
Jack Ablin emphasizes that an attempt on Trump's life increases political instability, which in turn leads to greater uncertainty and market volatility. He believes that political violence might bolster Trump's reputation as a strong leader and alter the bond market trading pattern, increasing the likelihood of higher long-term rates and lower short-term ones.
Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers
Steve Sosnick points out that it's important to monitor changes in VIX futures and the Treasury yield curve. These indicators might signal concerns about pre- and post-election volatility as well as the potential for new taxes and tariffs. However, he believes the stock markets may not react significantly due to the uncertain impact of current events on earnings and cash flows.
John Chambers, Former Chair of the Sovereign Ratings Committee at Standard & Poor's
John Chambers expresses concern about the possibility of political violence in the U.S., similar to that seen in the 1960s. Despite this, he believes that the strong institutions in the U.S. are capable of withstanding such challenges, and it will not significantly affect the country's ratings.
Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management
Brian Jacobsen focuses on how the assassination attempt will affect Trump's chances in the presidential race. He believes such events could either weaken Trump's position or strengthen his supporters' resolve. Increased voter turnout might become a key factor in his victory.
Tina Fordham, Geopolitical Strategist and Founder of Fordham Global Foresight
Tina Fordham notes that the shooting complicates the election outlook for Democrats, especially given the party's internal disagreements about Joe Biden's future as a candidate. She emphasizes that political violence in the U.S. has become a commonplace reality, and the nation's reaction to these events remains crucial. Fordham also believes that the immediate consequence of the incident will be an accelerated market consensus on a Trump victory.
Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group
Ian Bremmer expresses deep concern about the increase in political violence and social instability in the U.S. He notes that American democracy is facing a serious crisis, which sharply contrasts with other major democracies around the world, where free and fair elections are held.
Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ
Khoon Goh points out that the likelihood of a Trump election victory has risen to 70% following the assassination attempt. He also indicates a potential rally in Bitcoin driven by fears of new civil unrest. However, Khoon Goh believes that the market's reaction to the incident will be short-lived.
Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at ATFX Global
Nick Twidale predicts that the incident will increase Trump's chances of victory and lead to a rise in flows into safe-haven assets.
Rong Ren Goh, Portfolio Manager at Eastspring Investments
Rong Ren Goh believes that the shooting will bolster support for Trump and enhance the positive momentum observed after the debates. He forecasts a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and an increase in Treasury bond yields if Trump's election prospects continue to improve.
Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer at Vantage Point Asset Management
Nick Ferres notes that the election outcome could be positive for Trump, which would reduce uncertainty. Ferres referred to public opinion polls showing a surge in support for Ronald Reagan after the 1981 assassination attempt. He also highlights the importance of future fiscal policy and its impact on inflation and interest rate trajectories.
Hemant Mishir, Chief Investment Officer at S Cube Capital
Hemant Mishir predicts a shock reaction from markets amid election tensions in the U.S. He believes that Trump's chances of victory will significantly improve if Democrats do not offer a worthy alternative.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump has elicited a wide range of reactions from investors and analysts. Despite differing assessments and forecasts, most experts agree that the incident increases political instability and market uncertainty. In the coming weeks, financial markets will closely monitor the development of events and voter reactions, which will significantly influence the dynamics of various assets.
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