I'm more sanguine now than I was during Trump's 2016 run.

I may be wrong, and I'm open to arguments as to why I am, but I don't think a second Trump presidency would be a great threat to democracy.

I'm not entirely sanguine about another Trump presidency. I expect it to be as chaotic, undirected, and as antipathetic about constitutional and legal process as his first one (not that I think Democratic presidents are in any way models of integrity here). That's because Trump remains the master of chaos - emotionally thriving on causing confusion and angst in others - as well as still being petty, reactive, and incapable of organized strategic thought.

But as much as Trump is a natural authoritarian, we learned from his first term that he's actually a very weak man who lacks capacity to win when obstructed. He probes for areas of weakness and non-resistance, but gives up quickly when meeting resistance and moves on to look for easier targets.

In short, any reasonably determined congressional or judicial resistance will stymie any truly democracy-destroying efforts he makes.

Second, his major motivating factor is his butt-hurt over losing. Losing and being seen as a loser is his greatest fear and motivation in life. Winning the presidency would be his great comeback story, the proof of his claim that victory was stolen from him in 2020.

While he and his supporters would gladly have shredded any and all rules to reinstall him in the presidency, because they believe that was the democratically and constitutionally correct outcome, they will have a harder time persuading themselves that continuing in office beyond a constitutionally allowed second term is legitimate, especially if it meant disallowing the election.

Sure, some percentage of his followers would be fine with that, but probably not most, and Trump himself would be content to walk away having served his constitutionally allowed two terms.

He would, of course, boast endlessly that he could have won a third term, and will suggest that it is only his magnanimity and love of country that kept him from pursuing another sure victory.