Well, it really did happen. A past president is being prosecuted for the first time in American history.

Multiple sources close to former President Donald Trump confirmed to NPR on Thursday that a grand jury in New York decided to indict him on charges relating to hush money payments made to purportedly cover up affairs Trump had.

The Trump GOP machine then got to work, releasing a political playbook designed to protect the outgoing president among his supporters. It has seemed to work with them, but an unusual divergence has appeared: While Trump's brand has grown toxic with many Americans, it has been reinforced with Republicans.

Trump said in a statement late Thursday night that "This is Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history." It was "an act of blatant election interference," he continued, that would "backfire" on Democrats. He also assailed the Democratic New York district attorney who filed the charges, Alvin Bragg.

The indictment was referred to as a "unprecedented abuse of power" by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, issued a statement that contained just the word "outrageous."

Of course, a prosecutor or court didn't simply decide to bring an indictment against Trump. A grand jury determines whether there is sufficient evidence to bring criminal charges against a suspect after hearing the prosecutor's testimony. So they did.

If there is a plot, a committee of his peers is also involved.

High stakes

Politically, an indictment is very different from a conviction, and there are questions about the actual case Bragg has.
All of this plays into the air of grievance Trump, a New York billionaire, has puffed into existence that he's used to propel his political fortunes. He's argued, successfully with his base of supporters, that the left has it out for him – and, in turn, them – that the system is rigged, and that this indictment and investigation in New York are nothing more than a politically motivated attempt to derail his presidential campaign.

Trump back to that oldie in his statement Thursday night:

"From the time I came down the golden escalator at Trump Tower, and even before I was sworn in as your President of the United States, the Radical Left Democrats - the enemy of the hard-working men and women of this Country - have been engaged in a Witch-Hunt to destroy the Make America Great Again movement."

It's all right off the greatest hits heard during the 2016 campaign, the Mueller Russia investigation, two impeachments, the FBI search of his Florida home where they recovered boxes of classified documents – and with relation to, not just this case, but the other three criminal investigations stemming from his conduct after the 2020 presidential election he lost and his role in the lead up to the Jan. 6 insurrection.

It has appeared to work in his effort to win another GOP nomination and, to an extent, more broadly on the New York case.

While the most recent NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist survey this week revealed that 57% of respondents said the criminal investigations investigating him were fair, 8 in 10 Republicans concur with Trump and believe the probes are a "witch hunt," and 8 in 10 Republicans continue to support him.

In response to Trump's rhetoric, a Quinnipiac poll issued on Wednesday revealed that 6 in 10 respondents and 2/3 of all respondents concur that the probe is politically motivated and that the accusations in New York are not that severe.

By all accounts, Trump is in far greater danger than the New York case due to the other three criminal investigations - two federal and one out of Georgia. However, Bragg filed this lawsuit first, and the stakes are quite high for him politically as well as emotionally.

It will be more difficult for Trump to argue that the allegations were politically motivated if he is found guilty. But if Trump is found not guilty, you can imagine how he will boast of his victory. He continued to do so even after the Mueller investigation failed to clear him and after his second impeachment, which occurred after January 6, when a majority of senators judged him guilty but fell short of the two-thirds threshold needed for a conviction.

Audiences for primary and general elections

In three consecutive election cycles, Republicans have suffered as a result of the brand they seem to be so attached to.

The GOP enjoyed unified control of power in Washington when Trump took office. Republicans controlled the House and Senate, while Trump was in the White House.

But shortly after, things started to alter. In 2018, the Democrats took back control of the lower house while the GOP lost dozens of House seats.

Trump was removed from office in 2020 after falling short in the popular vote by 7 million. The Senate is now under Democratic control.

The GOP suffered losses in pivotal races in swing states and tough districts in the 2022 midterm elections thanks to a large number of Trump-backed and -styled candidates. In the Senate, Democrats increased their margin of victory.

Republicans also gained control of the House, though more narrowly than they had anticipated given the historical pattern of a president's party suffering significant losses in the first midterm.

Currently, seven of the past eight presidential elections have seen the Republican party lose the popular vote. Since the founding of the Republican Party in the 19th century, that is the worst stretch for either party in their histories.

So even as Trump appears to be unifying this version of the Republican Party behind him through his claims of "witch hunts" and conspiracies, Americans more broadly have lined up against him – and the GOP – over and over these past several years.

This was made clear this week by the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, which revealed that 6 in 10 people, including two-thirds of independents, don't want Trump to run for president again.

However, 75% of Republicans said they wanted him to run for office once more. When it comes to a presidential primary, it is what matters.

According to Republican strategists, the only way that could change - and there's no guarantee it would even work - is if other Republican candidates zero in on Trump's political weaknesses, including the fact that he can only serve for four more years, portray his legal issues as a symbol of the confusion and drama that surrounds Trump, and make that case to the GOP base.

But to date, none have shown any real willingness to do so in a persistent manner, which has been the narrative of the Trump era.

Instead, his most important opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, criticized the New York prosecutor on Thursday and declared through Twitter that "Florida will not help in an extradition request...

There isn't even a hint that it might be possible. Trump's attorneys and the New York district attorney's office will most likely simply agree, either in person or digitally, on a date for his arraignment.

However, DeSantis' affirmative tweet highlights Trump's influence over the GOP base. DeSantis has to tread carefully so as not to enrage the staunchly pro-Trump GOP base, even if Trump often criticizes DeSantis' record and personality.
It's a terrible strategy to try to get the nomination for president while claiming you truly admire the king a lot.