How Do These Two Flyweights Match Up
The match up unfortunately isn't terribly interesting. We're looking at a very well-rounded fighter in Demetrious and primarily a grappler in Borg. Looking at the stats, Demterious seems to have the upper hand everywhere.
Striking
| Ray Borg | Demetrious Johnson |
|---|---|
 |  |
As you can see, Mighty Mouse has the higher striking accuracy. If you factor in the successful strikes while standing the disparity shows even more. Ray Borg has a striking accuracy of 48% and of those successful strikes 21% are standing making his percentage of successful standing strikes a little over 10%. In Comparison Johnson's numbers add up to just under 30%. Every fight starts standing and Johnson has a clear advantage here.
Grappling
| Ray Borg | Demetrious Johnson |
|---|---|
 |  |
Even at Borg's specialty, grappling, Johnson still has better numbers. With such a huge advantage standing up, I don't think Johnson will attempt too many takedowns, but if we're all expecting Borg to shoot it should be said Johnson is actually more likely to shoot successfully considering his numbers.
Defense
| Ray Borg | Demetrious Johnson |
|---|---|
 |  |
 |  |
Let's analyze the striking numbers some more. Take Borg's 10% standing striking number and let's factor in DJ's defense. Borg's expected percentage of landed standing strikes plummets to 3.2%. DJ's number with Borg's defense factored in is 13.8%. These numbers just aren't looking good for Borg. Borg's only hope is to get the fight to the ground where he stands even some sort of chance. On the feet he is just outclassed.
Final Words
Borg's best chance of winning, which still isn't a very good chance of winning, is to get the fight to the ground and pull off something crazy. Borg is very creative on the ground and also very chaotic, he might be able to trap Johnson somehow. It will be tremendously difficult with DJ's takedown defense.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not counting Borg out, crazy upsets have happened before. But I just don't see Borg winning this fight. DJ is in his prime right now and Borg still has a few kinks to fix.
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