Today, the world is witnessing a new kind of great power rivalry. Russia and the U.S., along with their respective allies, are developing new tools to compete in this “new era” of great power competition. While both sides are trying to avoid open conflict, they are also engaging in activities meant to send a message that they will not be challenged or ignored by anyone. This article highlights how Russia and Ukraine matter as part of this struggle for global influence. Both countries matter because of their size and location, which make them excellent indicators of how the Great Power Competition is playing out in Eastern Europe. Their histories also matter because they help reveal how the present moment reflects past events, as well as where each country may be headed in the future.
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What is Great Power Competition?
Great Power Competition (GPC) is the phrase used to describe the new kind of rivalry between the major powers that have emerged since the end of the Cold War. This competition is different from past competitions, such as the Cold War, because it’s not just about a systemic rivalry between two superpowers. GPC also involves a rising power challenging the dominant position of the established powers and their allies. GPC is happening in three domains: economic, military, and soft power. In the economic domain, the U.S. and China are trying to shape the world economy in their favor. In the military domain, the U.S. and Russia are developing new weapons to maintain their superiority in the face of rising powers such as China and Iran. The soft power domain highlights how countries are competing to shape perceptions and gain influence through culture, media, and foreign assistance programs.
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Why Does Ukraine Matter to Russia?
Russia has long viewed Ukraine as both a critical neighbor and a critical part of Russia’s past, present, and future. Ukraine was once a Russian province, and it was part of the Soviet Union. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine held an independence referendum and voted to break away from the Soviet Union, becoming one of the original members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In 2014, Ukraine’s pro-Russian president fled the country after being overthrown by pro-democracy protesters. This created an opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin to intervene in Ukraine, annexing the Crimean Peninsula and supporting rebels in the Donbas region. The intervention created a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 10,000 people.
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Why does Russia Matter to Ukraine?
Ukraine is important to Russia in many ways. First, Ukraine is Russia’s largest trading partner, and its economy is heavily dependent on trade with Ukraine. In addition, much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based in the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Due to Russia’s military intervention in eastern Ukraine, Russia also has a significant presence in Donbas, including its largest foreign military deployment since the end of the Cold War. Ukrainian politics matter to Russia because they help shape perceptions of Russian strength and influence in the world. In 2010, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution raised fears in Russia that the country would be unable to control the outcome of its presidential election. The 2014 revolution and the subsequent government overthrow sparked fears that Russia could lose control of Ukraine altogether.
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Why Ukraine Matters to the World
Destabilizing Ukraine means destabilizing Europe: Ukraine is a critical part of the European borderlands and a strategic linchpin between the West and Russia. If Russia succeeds in controlling Ukraine, it will have a better chance of destabilizing all of Europe. If Russia fails to control Ukraine, it will lose critical leverage over the West. Because of these stakes, the international community has come together to help Ukraine, providing the country with financial assistance, political support, and security assistance to help stabilize the country.
Why Russia Matters to the World: Ending the Dependence on Western Equipment and Technologies
If Russia succeeds in controlling Ukraine, it will be able to enhance its energy exports (predominantly natural gas) to Western Europe, increasing its political leverage. If Russia fails to control Ukraine, it could lose its ability to send natural gas to Europe, which would require Europe to become more dependent on Russian oil. This change could transform the global energy market, reducing the influence of OPEC and possibly increasing the influence of the U.S. Additionally, it could force Europe to diversify its natural gas supply, which could include importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S.
Conclusion
The struggle between Russia and the U.S. over Ukraine is one of the defining features of the Great Power Competition. As this competition unfolds, it will be important to keep in mind how past events have shaped the present and how current events may shape the future. This will help us understand why Ukraine matters and why Russia matters in ways that go beyond simple geopolitical competition. It will help us understand why the struggle for Ukrainian hearts and minds matters not just to Ukrainians and Russians, but to the entire world as well.