gm, and welcome to October — or "Uptober" as the crypto world loves to call it. If you’ve been around the community lately, you’ve probably heard this term floating around. It refers to the trend where Bitcoin’s price historically goes up during October. While the name might sound exaggerated, it’s actually rooted in some statistical reality. Let’s break down the data!
Here’s the gist: Since 2017, Bitcoin has consistently ended October with a price increase month-over-month. These gains have varied from a modest 5% in 2022 to a huge 48% in 2017. There’s only one exception: in October 2018, Bitcoin dropped by 5%. Six out of seven years showing positive returns is a strong pattern, especially considering no other month shows this level of consistency. This odd statistical trend is how "Uptober" earned its name. The exact reason for this pattern is debated, but one common explanation is that as summer in the U.S. winds down, investors return to the market and place large bets. Another factor could be that the idea of "Uptober" has become self-fulfilling, with investors taking long positions in anticipation of the pattern, pushing the price up as a result. Crypto markets sure do have a way of feeding into themselves!
So, what about Uptober 2024? First, let’s talk about how we predict these things. Uptober’s success is often tied to the momentum of the previous months, particularly August and September. For example, in 2017, August saw a massive +65% rally, followed by a -8% dip in September, leading to the biggest Uptober yet (+48%). In contrast, 2018 had losses in both August and September (-9% and -6%), resulting in the only negative Uptober (-5%). A middle-ground year like 2020 saw August at +3% and September at -7%, which led to a +28% Uptober. Keep in mind, though, that 2020 was an election year, which tends to amplify market trends. While strong months leading into October can help, they aren't necessary for Uptober to deliver big numbers — though the closer they are to being positive, the better.
Now, let’s look at the numbers for 2024. August 2024 ended at -8% while September finished at +9%. Based on the historical data, we could expect Bitcoin’s price in October to rise around the seven-year average of +22%. As of now, Bitcoin is sitting at $63,500, which means we could be looking at a price around $75,000 by the end of the month. A couple of important caveats: First, the "Uptober" trend focuses only on monthly closing prices, meaning it doesn’t account for any fluctuations within the month. We could see Bitcoin touch a new all-time high in the upper $70k or low $80k range, but it might not hold that level until the month’s end. Second, it’s worth noting that while election years usually boost prices, we’re also in a quasi-recession, which could have the opposite effect. It’s unclear which factor will dominate, or if they’ll simply cancel each other out.
Lastly, let’s talk about the USD/PHP exchange rate. This is making things a little tricky for calculating all-time highs (ATHs) in the Philippines. Back in July 2024, Bitcoin’s price peaked at $69,800, which translated to 4.1 million PHP due to the high exchange rate (58.6 at the time). But now the dollar has weakened by almost 5%, so Bitcoin will need to hit $72,000 before it trades above 4 million PHP again. Looks like we’re in for an interesting Q4, cryptofam!