This year, the American GDP has been growing at a very brisk pace: +2% and +2.1% in the first and second quarters, with an expected +3.5% in the third quarter. However, it appears that the festivities will come to an end towards the end of the year. GDP growth is forecasted by various agencies to be between 0.6% and 1.6%.
I read an article in the WSJ about how the U.S. economy will soon face four new problems simultaneously:
-️ Strikes in the automotive industry.
Government shutdown.
Student loan payments. Currently, it's unclear how much debt will actually be forgiven, and this issue affects 40 million Americans.
Rising oil prices. This is straightforward - expensive energy increases costs and reduces profitability.
Overall, each problem on its own should not cause significant harm to the American economy. However, the concern is that all these problems could materialize simultaneously. That would be a significant blow to both demand and businesses.
Let's not forget that, in addition to the future problems mentioned, there are already very serious weaknesses:
▪️ High interest rates in the U.S. For example, mortgage rates have more than doubled from last year's lows.
▪️ Business activity in the industry has been declining for the past few months due to reduced demand and high costs.
▪️ The market is drying up. Since the beginning of QT last spring, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased by $860 billion (from $8.96 trillion to $8.1 trillion). Moreover, the Treasury has borrowed $1.5 trillion since the beginning of this year.
Conclusion
The U.S. economy will experience challenging times for at least the next six months. There are too many negative factors simultaneously coming into play right now.
This is also bad news for the markets. Fundamentally, macroeconomic indicators are not the best at the moment, and the Federal Reserve is not planning to lower interest rates. Meanwhile, sources for irrational market growth are dwindling as liquidity is draining away.
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