What will happen to all the world indices and commodity markets? Well, I can't tell you that, but I can tell you when! Just watch when these two trend lines to time the next big movement in markets. Most likely, the Fed will announce no rate hikes or more QE, sending the USD down down down and ALL markets up up up. If they do not do this, the markets are at high risk of imploding, which would destroy all central bank credibility. I'm with Peter Schiff here - I think they will double down their QE program.
It's impossible to predict the future, but this chart will give you at least a countdown to the next BIG moment in the markets.
Of interest may be the fact that these trend lines will be converging right around the time of the election.
Good Luck. Have Fun. Play Safe.
-JT out
Great piece and thanks for sharing. Happy to upvote and share this on Twitter✔ for my followers to read. Cheers. Stephen
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Thanks matey. I'm glad you enjoy. It's just a countdown now!
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Been watching this as well. Both camps make good arguments. Consensus among elite seem to hint at a rate hike in December, but who knows? If the Fed is strictly politicized they will hike after the elections. But the more I think about it, the less I think QE4 is likely. I think they're going to go Helicopter Money instead to maintain some credibility. QE4 will be the nail in their credibility coffin as all the data does not support it. But again, who the heck knows with these CBs. 3
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They're still buying up assets. They've claimed that there is no QE going on, but that just doesn't seem possible. The US Govt is still running a -400Billion dollar deficit. That money has gotta be coming from the Fed. This is straight from the US Govt financial website.
At this point, they will probably start doing exactly what Draghi has started - buying up market indices directly. They may not even announce it, though and just keep it under wraps. All the rules have changed. I really don't think they will let markets down at all.
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I appreciate your input. Agreed they are buying up assets. Also agree manipulation and corruption is rampant and they're probably doing a lot of things we're unaware of, probably in conjunction with ECB, Japan and BOE, but to allow the markets to continually move up is a slap in the face of common sense and logic of investors. The FED's credibility is hugely at stake right now. They may maintain the equity markets until elections but I believe the data supports a rate hike to bring a sense of normalization into the minds of investors. I think Schiff is right about gold, it's going to go up, but not so sure about about the dollar. The USD has been moving with gold on many days recently, this could be a sign that it is being viewed as a safe haven in times of turmoil as gold is as it being the only alternative currency in the fiat world that people have confidence in.
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ALL, literally ALL the economic data is showing the economy is trashed. No growth, no production, no manufacturing, nothing. All of those industries have already borrowed into the future - they were at max storage and production last year. There is no demand for all the production caused by the free credit boom.
On the flip side of the coin, all the corporations have bought out their own stocks at highs to give CEOs a nice bonus at the expense of regular shareholders. Add that to the fact that financials are so heavily leveraged that a rate hike will bankrupt every bank in the world.
I don't think they can raise rates with this much over-production, corporate buybacks, and investment bank leverage. The only thing they can do is go deeper negative and hope for war.
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They can raise rates and they will. They did it in December 2015 when guys like Schiff said they couldn't. And now again, the same people are saying they can't, but they can and they will. And the markets will tank and things will suck for a while but there's always a way out when you can create unlimited capital. It's simply a matter of finding creative ways to inject it into the system.
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