I agree that when it comes to short to medium term "investing" in cryptocurrencies, fundamentals are relatively insignificant; it is market psychology / investor sentiment to which we should be paying most of our attention.
Purely for the purposes of discussion and learning, I just wanted to drill deeper into the trading opportunities that you discussed (and perhaps play devil's advocate at the same time).
The main considerations that you listed in your video are:
trading near support levels or yearly lows; and
a lot of hype / community support / talked about a lot.
(I know you mentioned catalysts on the horizon as well, but you said it wasn't even necessary when you spoke about Dash, so I have left it out.)
My question is, why would these two considerations mean that there is a swing trade opportunity in certain cryptoassets? I will use the three cryptoassets that you raised in your video for congruency, but arguably the points below could apply to any cryptoasset.
In relation to the first consideration, I don't see how historical trading activity indicates that there will be a upswing in price in the future. The past doesn't determine the future. In relation to Dash, for example, you mentioned that Dash hasn't performed all that well compared to other altcoins, and so there is an opportunity in the next altcoin run. Couldn't this be used in an argument against investing in Dash as well (i.e., as shown by the decrease in bitcoin dominance, the market is starting to assume more risk. But even in light of the increased risk appetite, investors are still not willing to buy into Dash.)?
In relation to the second consideration, again, why does this indicates a possible trading opportunity. An argument could be made that the hype is already associate with a certain coin is already priced in; or that community support forms the support levels (see above). I think Ark is a good example of this - judging from the sub-reddit, Ark does indeed satisfy this second consideration. Further, Ark VM and Ark Core v2 have long contributed to the hype surrounding Ark. However, as you rightly pointed out, Ark's price has, for a long time, been stagnant, even during the last crypto bullrun. I suppose my point is, the hype / community support / popularity is, and has been, there. The cult following, for the lack of a better word, is good but is it enough? (To be clear, I do hold Ark, and I really like the project.)
I realize that I talked about these two points in isolation, and perhaps the swing trade opportunity arises when the two points you raised synergize. To the extent that I have misrepresented what you said, or took it out of context, or simply misunderstood you, many apologies. In any event, I look forward to your views.
Thank you!