The USD index is now at a very critical point (see attached image). If it stays above the neckline at around 94.5, it is likely to strengthen for a while.
However, if it breaks below the neckline, it's likely to go down to 92.4 (near 200dMA) and if it breaks below that level, it will be in a bear market and its reserve currency status will be in real jeopardy.
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DISCLAIMER: I'm not a financial adviser, nor a professional trader and nothing I say here is meant to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It is purely for educational purposes. Please don't invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own due diligence before trading or investing.
Update on 26-Sep-18: The $USD has fallen below the neckline of the inverse H&S which gives its short-term target to be around 92.5. It should find some support there but if and when it falls below that level, then IMHO, the $USD is toast !
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Update on 27-Sep-18: The $USD is making a strong recovery today and has managed to move back above the neckline (95.08 at time of writing). The key level to watch now is 95.0 and if it stays above this level, then the H&S pattern would become invalid and the $USD is likely to go up, at least in the short-term.
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Update on 15-Oct-18: The $USD appears to be struggling to stay above 95.0 (it is $95.06 at the time of writing). This is a critical juncture. If it falls below this level and stays down, the days of the $USD as a reserve currency could be numbered.
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Update on 31-Dec-18: The $USD is struggling to go higher than 97.50 (currently 96.25). If it falls below 95.00, it is likely to give long-term sell signal which could result in it losing its reserve currency status. The situation over the next few days is, therefore, quite critical in assessing its future.
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