WW3 Watch: Russian military modernization continues

At a breakfast event over the summer, General Petr Pavel, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, warned that the Russian military was rapidly modernizing, but that it doesn’t necessarily pose threats to the NATO alliance.

“We in uniform, we define the threat based on two major elements. One is the capability, the other is the intent,” he said during a Q&A. He went on to note that Russia is improving both its conventional military and nuclear capabilities, and that Moscow is able to project power great distances.

“When it comes to exercises, their ability to deploy troops for long distance and to use them effectively quite far away from their own territory, there are no doubts,” Pavel said.

But is Russia planning to challenge NATO anytime soon? On this, Pavel said the alliance is less clear. “When it comes to intent, it’s not so clear because we cannot clearly say that Russia has aggressive intents against NATO,” he said, adding that NATO has been busy bolstering its own offensive and defense capabilities, which has been mostly concentrated in Eastern Europe. “There are elements that have to worry us and we have to stay ready,” he noted. “We face a huge modernization of all Russia military.”

Analyst Comment: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s military fell into a state of deep disrepair and obsolescence, so it only stands to reason that, once the Russian economy began to benefit from high oil prices about a decade ago that Moscow would pour new resources into its military. And indeed, as the Russian military has improved, it has also returned to Cold War-era tactics of buzzing U.S. and NATO warships and planes, stalking NATO countries with its nuclear submarines, and otherwise using newfound military might to spread influence, especially in the Middle East, as the U.S. withdrew during the latter Obama years. But any future conflict with NATO would rest on the age-old principle that drives most nations to war: national interests. And those depend largely on what NATO does. NATO's continued admittance of eastern European nations into the alliance pushes Putin to consider these actions against Russia's national interest, making war more likely.

@culper is a former intelligence analyst who now tracks the risk of World War 3.