Markets are hard. No one has ever denied that. The second you think you are performing well and do not stick to a strict set of rules is likely around the same time (or seconds) that the market smacks you right in the face.
In order to succeed in the market across ALL time frames you have to get the trend right. Well your in luck. We are at a very pivotal point in the US Equity Market that the trend will be decided soon enough (more than likely). $AAPL is going to be our prime example here in analyzing the overall market.
Considering AAPL is the largest stock that comprises many of the indices especially the QQQ (tech) there is hardly any chance the market can move completely opposite of AAPL. If AAPL tanks, the market can hold the levels at best. If AAPL participates, there is a very strong liklihood that the market participates because of how weighted AAPL is across the board. So Let's look at AAPL...
AAPL appears to rise when price is above the 200 day MA and fall when price is below the 200 day MA. This can be seen and checked with the red line on the chart. You can clearly see the "trend" that AAPL is in relative to the red moving average line. You can't deny the facts folks. As much as this is voodoo, it is clearly right there.
So where is AAPL now? JUST ABOVE the 200 day MA red line. It is pretty black and red here folks. You should be LONG the Equity market with AAPL above $190, and you should be OUT, below.
It doesn't get much easier than this and this minimizes your rik across the boards.
Long Above and Out Below...or Short :)
