Suppose you were asked to choose between two scenarios:
A: AI researchers announce that AGI is imminent, but their research is not easily accessible to you as the layman.
B: AI researchers produce an algorithm that approximates general intelligence, but they are unable to explain why.
I think a priori, most would be more convinced by scenario B. Yet despite the fact that anyone can chat for free with an AI right now, most people remain skeptical.
A park ranger once said that making effective bear proof containers is tricky because there is considerable overlap between the smartest bear and the dumbest human. Likewise, there's a question of when to declare AI to have human-level intelligence, because, in my experience, the AI is already smarter than many humans I know.
While we don't ascribe human rights to apes, we do grant them more moral recognition than most animals. However, no ape (or any other animal) has ever asked a question. As far as we can tell, they have no ability to form a theory of mind, so they cannot imagine that another being would know something they don't. ChatGPT demonstratively does have a theory of mind, as you can easily test. I'm not suggesting that a theory of mind is sufficient for general intelligence, but it's one of the required attributes, though we don't currently know the sufficient attributes of general intelligence.
I think most people won't believe AGI is near until they can talk to an intelligent agent with human-like speech patterns and facial animations. While in reality, such agents are neither necessary nor sufficient for AGI, they are already possible with some well-understood R&D. I would guess that most people who would be convinced by such an interface would probably be unable to identify why they are not actually intelligent.
I do think the question of whether AGI is imminent is important because it will completely and rapidly transform human civilization, assuming we survive it at all. But does it matter whether most people believe AGI (or the singularity) is near? In other words, can most people individually profit from forming a correct belief on the issue?
I think that's the first question to ask.