1. The great discontinuity ...
I don't believe in Ray Kurzweil's vision of the future - the Singularity. I'm not saying he's wrong, I just don't see it as likely. Yes - nano tech is progressing. Yes - 3D printers are awesome. But, sadly, NO ... even with all that, I can't really buy Ray's vision ...
I'm sure for many schooled in the infinite progress model of human history, the future seems like some Lucas Films quantum-slip-and-slide where EVERYONE is happy and there are no problems ... like this song here ...
Sure, the future might be amazing ...
We might come up with cheap, synthetic, temperature tolerant super-conduction ... that would be awesome.
We might have quantum-entanglement phones that allow us to talk to anyone, anywhere, even on the other side of the world - and without the need for cell phone towers or ANY intermediary.
We might develop fusion energy or something even sparkly'er than that ... maybe that crappy zero point energy ... and wow, that would be great too ...
We might come up with anti-gravity, or, better yet, the NAZI secrets of the "Bell Project" will be revealed and we'll all be able to build our own home-brew spaceships ... like that strange advertisement for the hovercraft, in the back of Boy's Life magazine, when I was a kid ...
But ...
And there's always a hairy butt ...
I don't think any of that cool shit is going to happen ...
I also don't fear the robot apocalypse, for the same sensible, Laws of Thermodynamics based, reasoning ...
But I really don't know.
That's the thing about what we're facing - it is, at its core, a massive paradigm shift and a hugely discontinuous shift in the future. Could be really good, could be really bad, but the "smooth sailing" crap? - that crap is probably ending soon ...
As you know, a discontinuous function is one defined by two or more functions over separated, non-overlapping, domains ... and sadly, in this case, we may think we know the first functor - f(x) ... we do not know the functor to come, g(x) ...
G(x) -> could be AMAZING ... could be "The Jetsons" future ... could be.
G(x) -> might also be a nightmare ...
And that's the thing about discontinuity - NOTHING in f(x) can predict g(x) ... you can make guesses, you can claim that there is a point at which the two worlds connect ... the future and the past ... but at these junctures of history, like the one before us, this point is really an infinite chasm ... an event horizon ... there's no way to know what's ahead, but perhaps an analogy would help ...
2. Hang glider analogy
Imagine you're a hang gliding enthusiast, and you find yourself in a hypothetical world ... a strange world ... kind of like a Far Cry game map (some understand) ...
In this world in which you enjoy hang gliding, you have a favorite spot - "The Cliff of 1,000 Islands" ...
"The Cliff of 1,000 Islands" is popular with many hang gliding people, like you, because of its challenge. There is this cliff, 2,000 feet high, that stands before a great sea ... in this great sea are 1,000 tiny islands, all of which you can land on, safely, with your glider. Some islands are very close, easy to reach; some are quite far away and you would need the perfect set of thermals to get there (thermals are naturally occurring columns of air that a glider can use to gain altitude and thereby travel further) ...
Now let's modify this analogy, this "thought experiment", a bit ... (gedanken man)
Imagine the islands far away had beer and pizza and beautiful men and women (whatever your sexual proclivities) ... that would rock, but you'll need 500 perfectly executed thermal ascents to get there ... to the cool islands.
Imagine again, that the Islands nearby, the ones "easy to reach", were surrounded with sharks, easy to get to BUT terribly rocky and dangerous to land on, had very little food or potable water, and also had lots of tigers on them that carry some terrible diseases ... harsh, slimy, plague-ridden, crappy islands ... you'd have to eat roaches to survive on them ... these islands are easy to reach and require a lot less hang gliding skill.
If you want me to describe the future of the human race, that's it ...
We have a hang glider, called "modernity" ... and she might get us to one of those cool, sexy, nice, peaceful, prosperous, wonderful, islands ...
Or, we might just crash the thing in the sea and get eaten by sharks.
3. Wishful thinking
I don't give prepping advice - I don't care if you own gold or silver or have 300 guns and 50,000 rounds of ammo ...
I think it makes sense to prepare for situations that might unfold, but it's important to remember this: the nature of this "Great Discontinuity" makes "predictions" kind of ridiculous ...
When discontinuity occurs in nature, the forces of chaos, of the cusp, of the strange-attractor at play. There are so many tiny things that can have huge impacts during these periods - and when I say "tiny", I simply mean not historically significant by themselves. But when systems become unstable prior to a historical discontinuity, event the insignificant can take on new meaning and have impact out of proportion.
That's the wishful thinking you get from me - that there's a chance, a slim one, that we end up with some magical, wonderful, amazingly cool future ...
But I'm not betting on it, and I simply don't care or have the means to judge ...
G(x) is a mystery to me ...
