Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis
Before the release of US inflation data, the Australian dollar, just like stock indices, oil, and other assets, expected a slowdown in consumer prices would force the Fed to turn dovish. As a result, the acceleration of core inflation caused the worst AUDUSD collapse since March 2020, when the pandemic began.
Historically, the Aussie has always been unstable, with a global recession approaching. The fact that US inflation is not moving towards the 2% target indicates that the Fed's job is far from done. The 4.5% federal funds rate increases the risks of a recession in the US economy. Europe will face a sharp economic slowdown due to the energy crisis, and China due to COVID-19. Australia will avoid recession as in 2008-2009 thanks to good trading conditions, increased population growth and a strong labor market. However, this is unlikely to help the AUD.
RBA and Fed rate forecasts
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https://www.litefinance.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-left-the-pack-forecast-as-of-14092022/?uid=285861726&cid=58534