Quarterly Australian dollar fundamental forecast
Trouble comes in threes. It is hard to imagine a more troubling Forex currency than the Australian dollar. Lockdowns due to a sharp deterioration in the epidemiological situation are not its only problem. The slowdown in the Chinese economy, the fall in commodity prices and growing interest in the greenback against the background of expectations of the start of the Fed monetary policy normalization make the problems of AUDUSD bulls unbearable. The pair collapsed to the previously indicated target by 0.722 much earlier than expected. The 9-month bottom is not the limit.
The hope that GDP will quickly recover after taking control of the COVID-19 situation, including through accelerated vaccinations, has allowed the Reserve Bank to maintain its QE withdrawing plan in September. Commonwealth Bank of Australia is less optimistic. According to the bank, the recovery of the Australian economy by the end of 2021 is very improbable. The road to the uptrend will be quite bumpy, and GDP growth will be uneven. In such an environment, no one will be surprised by the increase in the scale of monetary stimulus. Do not be fooled by the decline in unemployment in July to 4.6%. The calculation was made before lockdowns. NAB predicts unemployment growth to 5.6% by the end of the year.
Dynamics of unemployment in Australia
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