The Real Cost of Bitcoin Cash

in bitcoin •  7 years ago 

To everyone who sold rock-bottom priced alts to chase more "free" BCC and overpriced BTC, I just wanted to say "thanks" for the 24 hour 23% gain on my crypto portfolio :)

Seems that the smartest money, however, dumped BTC just a few hours before the fork, thus forfeiting any BCC claims, yet cashing out while BTC was almost 3k a pop, then grabbing up and pumping all the half way decent alts hours before the first BCC was even sold. Those folks were probably stuffing millions of dollars into thier accounts before most of us were even getting up and checking the morning BTC price.

It really makes one wonder about how manufactured the crypto market is. For example: what would keep someone with a lot of resources, social media reach, capital and hashing power, to initiate a so called "user fork" to split BTC, knowing the enticment of free BCC would force everyone to dump thier alts to chase it? Then, what would keep these same folks from dumping huge volumes of BTC right before the fork at or near it's all time high, forfeiting any BCC, perhaps because they already have plenty, and buying up all the low-cost alts while everyone else is waiting in line for BCC, hours away from even being able to think about claiming it, let alone selling it or buying any alts?

Or maybe it's just that smart money knew the best time to sell BTC was right BEFORE the fork, when it was at it's highest. Who cares about getting a speculative coin (BCC) if it means locking up capital that can be used to buy up alt-coins, many of which were at their all time low, and many of which shot up 20-30% in less than 12 hours from hitting that low?

Those that knew to sell BTC before the fork knew that the combined value of BTC and BCC would be priced at just a little more, at best, then what BTC was at it's highest point, which has held true. I anticipate BCC will drop even more once more folks figure out how to claim it and get it to the markets.

So what's the real gain of "free" BCC? None really, because any gain in BCC was wiped out and then some by the opportunity cost of locking up your capital while most alts were at the lowest price they have ever been at or will likely ever be at again. Many of these alts, if not most, gained 15%-30%+ over night. Compared to the few percent +/- of the newly minted BCC/BTC combo it's clear who the winners are.

All i have to say is never has the contriarian view point of investing against the crowd ever rang so true. If everyone is rushing to buy the same boat, that's a dead give away it's the wrong boat to buy.

Maybe It's smoke and mirrors devised by folks with more money and influence then most of us will ever dream of having, folks who stay rich and get richer buy getting you to chase new boats while buying up your old boat at half the price. When these folks get you running for that boat, the one that is half the size of your old boat, and more expensive, but that comes with a free little boat that may or may not float, better stop and think about why you are running.

If you aren't the fastest, most connected, sponsored by Reebok, Adidas and Nike, running marathons in your sleep, power-sprinting, non-stop, baddest jogging ass muther f*er, you better believe that boat's going to be gone by the time you reach it, and your old boat's going to cost you twice the price to buy it back from the a hole that low balled you for it.

Food for thought ;)

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Interesting point of view you have there. I had no idea how things were going to play out, so I just stayed diversified. Kept most in LTC since that one seemed pretty stable, held some alts that I was glad to see come back to life, and the rest in BTC to see what happend with this hardfork. After that bumpy July ride, it would be nice to see capital coming back in cryptos. Hopefully over $100 billion market cap soon. Good luck to you.

Hey @pbgreenpoint, thanks for the comment. This is my first post on steemit so it's appreciated. This post was originally going to be a comment on another crypto forum, but it got too long so I figured I'd try it here.

I obviously didn't know exactly what would happen either, but have been reading a bit about the "contrarian" philosophy of investing, which basically suggests doing the opposite of the crowd. Based on this reading and other observances in the crypto space, I set out to try to think of the absolute least likely and most unexpected thing or things that could transpire during the btc/bcc fork.

After seeing the alts all start dumping, as well as reading several forum posts where people were talking about dumping thier BCC as quick as possible to buy chep alts, I decided to dump all my BTC high and buy alts as low as possible before the fork knowing it would likely not be possible to do so if I waited for BCC given the number of people also plannng this.

The notion of large scale dumping of BTC pre-fork crossed my mind, and was then verified by watching the Bittrex BTC volume and price drop right before the fork.

Some of my post is very conspiracy theoryish, which i normally don't subscribe to. Again though, in trying to think of the least expected and (seemingly) illogical scenerio(s), this element did cross my mind so I figured I'd jot it down.

Given that many of the alts have dropped back to or near previous all time lows, I think we will see a lot of new money (and old money that got pulled out during the last month or so) pumping back into the crypto space.

Good luck to you as well!

I like it...takes balls what you did. "Be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful." Now let's see these alts pop in price.

You're right. It really pays to be a Contrarian. Cheers @alexander.north!

  ·  7 years ago Reveal Comment