End of the crisis: SegWit2X is activated, UASF will not be

Finally, what the Bitcoin community has been waiting for more than two years has happened - the confrontation around the scaling can be considered complete, since almost 100% of the miners voted to activate the SegWit2X proposal, which occurred on block 477120.

Now all the miners who have supported SegWit2X will reject the blocks that do not support the original BIP141. Thus, activation of SegWit will occur in accordance with Bitcoin Core plan - now the support for BIP141 will be 100%, since pools that have not yet joined the support of BIp91 or BIP141 remain in the absolute minority and their blocks will not be accepted without sacrificing Network, until they update their software.

You can even say that there was a hardcore, since the new rules for creating blocks are not compatible with the old ones, but the network will not notice the "falling out" of several blocks per day, and the hash of "dissenters" is too small to maintain a parallel chain. This is a good example for the supporters of the concept of "any hardcore is bad for the network," who do not understand the work of the detachment. HardFork is dangerous only when both branches support a significant proportion of the miners and users who make many transactions. Otherwise, the alternative chain does not survive and joins the main chain.

Since BIP141 is supported by all the miners, now it will be activated in the usual way - through reaching 95% of the threshold of the power of the miners. In the current period, voting blocks are not enough, but in the next, which starts on July 27 and ends on August 9 or 10, activation will occur with almost 100% probability. Thus, the activation date is transferred much further on August 1, but UASF will not work now, since the miners already vote for BIP141. Supporters of UASF can celebrate the victory, although this proposal has never had much support and if activated without SegWit2X would have been in the minority. Everything was decided by the consensus reached in New York, thanks to which business and miners could act together.

Now Bitcoin can move into the "bright future", but on the way one more critical date - the moment of activation of the second part of the New York agreement with the increase of the block to 2 MB. This should happen in late 2017 - early 2018. The split is possible in the event that some of the signatories of the agreement do not want to fulfill the second part of the agreement and they will be supported by the miners who did not initially vote for SegWit2x.