And it is a question which has occupied a lot of my time lately.
I have spent many hours reading and analysing the charts, trying to find the answer. I have to keep reminding myself of important factors like:
- TA is only a guideline, look beyond TA
- Don't get caught up in bullish hype
- Don't confuse short-term performance with long-term performance
I've written a fair amount about capitulation recently. I have repeatedly said that I'm still waiting for a new low in this cycle, but I have also expressed my doubts and suggested other options. I strongly suggest reading this post which details those options: The NEED for CRYPTO to CAPITULATE
With the predicted window for the crypto capitulation "bounce" rapidly closing, I am starting to entertain legitimate doubt with regard to the predicted capitulation event. I am increasingly growing fond of the "Capitulation already happened and most people missed it" scenario which I described in the recommended post linked to above.
I also showed in "The time to CAPITULATE is NOW!" why, from a TA perspective, capitulation should be taking place already. In
The NEED for CRYPTO to CAPITULATE I showed how we were a mere $80 away from my predicted Capitulation point for BTC. As I said in that post:
"that’s well within the margin of error and the limits of TA accuracy!"
From https://mentormarket.io/bitbrain/the-need-to-for-crypto-to-capitulate/
That $80 gap keeps widening and is now over $800 wide and growing steadily. To put that into perspective, that's about 20% of the total BTC price. Here you can see what it looks like at the time of writing this post.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
When in doubt...
I love the phrase "when in doubt, zoom out" when talking about crypto charts. Usually I use it to inspire confidence in those who doubt the future growth of cryptocurrencies, but it applies equally well to analysing crypto performance when the short-term information is difficult to read.
So that is what I ended up doing in an attempt to answer the capitulation question.
The Answer:
Lies in the long-term charts, at least, that is what I believe. What do you think the answer is? I don't want to spoil things by giving my answer yet, that will come tomorrow. In the meantime I would like to hear your thoughts on the subject:
- Do you still expect capitulation?
- Have your views changed on that subject?
- How certain are you?
Tomorrow I will give my answers to those questions, and I will show you why I think what I do. (So that you can make up your own minds - you know I work!) I'm not purposefully delaying my answer to generate anticipation; I have several charts to show you, so I want to make it a post of it's own - where the information I present will not get lost in the clutter of this introductory post.
Be sure to drop by again tomorrow to see my latest information about capitulation (or the possible lack thereof).
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
Bit Brain recommends:
Crypto Exchanges:
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Published by BitBrain
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If we do not capitulate in the next three weeks, we will see a period of consolidation again until a catalyst setup the next direction for the price. Whether it reverses the still bearish trend will depend on volume and the price level it respects. Look forward seeing your thoughts...
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Thanks for the input.
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Well you know my thoughts. Right now is the bounce that I've been mentioning for a while now. Not sure how high we'll go or how long it will take. Maybe all the way up to 5-6K? Who knows.
Then again we may have already hit bottom. I don't think so, but on the other hand it would be a great way to screw over the majority of investors who are waiting on a lower low.
Buying on the way down is fairly safe thus far but now that we're bouncing it's risky as hell. It could go either way and due to this risk it's likely that there won't be enough people fomo'ing in.
Usually after capitulation comes the depression phase. This kind of has to last a while too, and I haven't seen that yet. So overall, still expecting sub-$3000.
I won't declare bullish until we pass $6K and won't truly be bullish until we pass $12K.
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The Dad Cat certainly never leaves my mind, but this is new ground we are breaking and the scenario is not cut and dried. The stock markets are a big factor, as is the possibility of a soft capitulation being completed. I also won't be bullish until price stabilises above $6k - I'm looking at $8.5 for confirmation of a bullish reversal.
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On a different note @bitbrain do you like to play games on STEEM? @happyme is running a turn based daily zombie slaying RPG game on here. We're looking for additional players! It's mostly for the fun of playing and connecting with others, very little time involved daily, but you also get an upvote for participating. Check it out, it's kind of fun :)
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I haven't played any games yet. I looked at steemmonsters, but found the cost of starting to play rather prohibitive. I don't blog hard every day to spend all of that on someone's virtual cards!
But I am a gamer at heart and I'll go see what happyme is up to.
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I've checked it out and I see the game is underway. I'll try to follow it to find my feet and then probably sign up for the next game.
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No it's nothing like steem monsters and it's totally free to play with no strings attached!
The game started yes but due to low amount of players because of christmas some of us are playing two characters at once right now. So there are plenty of characters that you could play and take over, and it's easy to pop in at any time. No need to wait for next game, but you can if you want to. Just pop into one of happyme's threads at any time and post whenever you want and you'll be playing in no time
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I think I'll stay watching for now to get the gist of the game, but I'll almost certainly play the next round.
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We will have a little run up but I see it capitalize with in 6 months 😀
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6 months in crypto is like a decade in other markets, I'll have to really shine up my crystal ball to see what will happen by then. 😄
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