According to the mythical founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, in Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (2008), trust in financial transactions was hijacked by the financial intermediaries. The solution emerged from the elimination of the blockchain signature / hashing system, which replaces the need for costly, authoritarian, trust based, 3rd parties, with a an efficient and low cost proof-of-work (PoW) system, preventing double spending. A simple way to view Bitcoin is a CPU powered network where each node votes via CPU power to verify its block in the block chain; a virtually hack proof system due to the enormous computing power required to crack Bitcoin. Andreas Antonopolous estimates that not even the computing power / financial resources of an entire superpower could falsify a single transaction, costing as much as $1 billion dollars, making it waste of resources that could ironically otherwise create millions of dollars mining Bitcoin. Antonopolous' defense of Bitcoin / Block chain is comparable, arguably to the Constitutional Convention of 1776 (figure 1.1.). Although an unpopular view, the host confirms the notion that Bitcoin = Digital Gold, or a close facsimile. Case in point, for the first time in 50 years of digital commerce an identical contract or Bitcoin has a unique signature, emulating the gold content while retaining individual characteristics of a gold coin. In true Talebian fashion, the Bitcoin network is de facto anti-fragile, i.e., similar to the internet / email, if one node or several fail, the network is easily reestablished and functional. So in a perfect world, ceteris paribus, what is a future price for BTC? Based loosely on Metcalfe's Law governing any digital network, a unique Bitcoin valuation model emerges: the square of the number of users of ANY network times the average transaction rate over the total users. Using the widely accepted Cambridge University estimates of the number of Bitcoin users, the mean value, 4.2 million people is squared it and multiplied by the daily average transaction per block and voila, near the current price. To identify a forecast, apply Google's Trend analysis to anticipate the new number of Bitcoin Users, which reveals that the number doubles every year. Although price forecasts can fail, due to slower user growth / transaction rates and regulatory and competition adjustments if the current trend persists, a most basic BTC valuation model results in a 1$ million Bitcoin price in 7 years (this hypothesis is purely speculative and should not be construed as investment advice).
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